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The Best Years Are Ahead

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By Brian Nelson, CFA — The wind is at our backs. — The Federal Reserve, Treasury, and regulatory bodies of the U.S. may have no choice but to keep U.S. markets moving higher. The likelihood of the S&P 500 reaching 2,000 ever again seems remote, and I would not be surprised to see 5,000 on the S&P 500 before we see 2,500-3,000, if the latter may be in the cards. The S&P 500 is trading at ~4,100 at the time of this writing. — The high end of our fair value range on the S&P 500 remains just shy of 4,000, but I foresee a massive shift in long-term capital out of traditional bonds into equities this decade (and markets … Read more

How to Think About Corporate Tax Reform

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2,350-2,750 on the S&P? Could the Coronavirus Catalyze a Financial Crisis?

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Image: We think a rather modest sell-off in the market to the target range of 2,350-2,750 on the S&P 500 is rather reasonable in the wake of one of the biggest economic shocks since the Global Financial Crisis. The chart above shows how far markets have advanced since 2011, and an adjustment lower to the target range of 2,350-2,750 is rather modest in such a context and would only bring markets to late 2018 levels (note red box as the target range). The range reflects ~16x S&P 500 12-month forward earnings estimates, as of February 14, adjusted down 10% due to COVID-19. When companies like Visa talk about a couple percentage points taken off of growth rates, one knows that … Read more

Great Year for (Our) High Yield Dividend Ideas! Inquire about the High Yield Dividend Newsletter!

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“When I highlighted my concerns about MLPs years ago, we were doubted, but we ended up being right. When we warned about the value factor, we were told the quants had solved the market, but we ended up being right, with the quant factor having its worst year in 2020 in history. We called the COVID-19 crash and highlighted opportunities for dollar cost averaging near the March 2020 bottom. We were bullish on the huge upswing in 2021, and we avoided the worst areas of 2022 to the point where our publishing suite is doing fantastic this year, if not “outperforming.” When I highlighted the second edition of the book Value Trap, our team released a press release warning about the 60/40 … Read more

Roaring 20s? — Consumer Staples Valuations Stretched

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Strong outlooks for Kimberly-Clark, United Technologies, Hexcel and Lockheed Martin point to an economy that is still gaining momentum. We caution investors of consumer staples stocks, however, with many equities holding large net debt positions, and the sector trading at almost 20 times forward earnings. Learn about the difference between the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio and the Exclusive publication and much more in this note. Image Source: Alan Levine — By Brian Nelson, CFA Welcome new members!    As you’re getting familiar with the website, please watch the Navigation Video. For those passionate about financial analysis and to see how deep our team goes with our research, please watch the Financial Analysis Video. Finally, don’t forget to flip through the , and read our … Read more

US Congress Is Getting Ready to Pass a Massive ~$2.2 Trillion Fiscal Stimulus Bill

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Image Shown: US equities have started to recover some of their lost ground as the likelihood that the US Congress will pass a massive ~$2.2 trillion fiscal stimulus and emergency spending package, dubbed the CARES Act, has increased significantly over the past week as seen through the bounce in the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY). President Trump has clearly indicated that he intends to sign such a bill into law as soon as possible, with the US House of Representatives expected to take up the legislation this upcoming Friday morning on March 27. By Callum Turcan On March 25, the US Senate worked late into the night to secure a bipartisan compromise on a massive ~$2.2 trillion fiscal stimulus … Read more

Philip Morris International Posts Solid Guidance, Cuts Costs

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Image Shown: Excluding foreign currency headwinds, Philip Morris International Inc’s financials held up relatively well during the first half of 2020, all things considered with an eye towards the pandemic. Image Source: Philip Morris International Inc – Second Quarter of 2020 IR Earnings Presentation By Callum Turcan The ongoing coronavirus (‘COVID-19’) pandemic has severely stressed consumer spending in countries all over the globe, and that includes spending on cigarettes and other tobacco products. For a major tobacco company like Philip Morris International Inc (PM), this dynamic weighs negatively on its near-term outlook, though the company is well-positioned to ride out the storm for several reasons. We continue to like Philip Morris International as a holding in the High Yield Dividend … Read more

Philip Morris’ Transformation Continues

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Image Shown: Philip Morris International Inc’s IQOS offering, a heated tobacco unit product (also classified as a “reduced risk product” by the company) that seeks to replicate the experience of traditional cigarettes for smokers in a bid to get those users to switch over to an offering the company views as relatively “safer,” has continued to post solid user base growth of late. We are big fans of Philip Morris and its ongoing transformation and include shares of PM as an idea in the High Yield Dividend Newsletter portfolio. Image Source: Philip Morris International Inc – Second Quarter of 2021 IR Earnings Presentation By Callum Turcan On July 20, the company behind the Marlboro cigarette brand (excluding sales of the … Read more

The Price-to-Earnings Ratio Demystified

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By Brian Nelson, CFA The Price-to-Earnings Ratio Demystified The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio seems so easy, right? The trailing P/E is just the price per share of the stock divided by the annual net diluted earnings per share the firm generated in its last fiscal (calendar) year. The forward P/E is the price per share of the stock divided by next fiscal (calendar) year’s annual net diluted earnings per share of the firm (or the forward 12-month period). The P/E ratio is probably the most well-known measure to help investors compare how cheap or expensive a firm’s shares are, as stock prices, for lack of a better term, are arbitrary. For example, stocks such as Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A), which … Read more