MHFI

Subscribe: The Nelson Exclusive Is Simply One of a Kind

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“I think the Nelson Exclusive publication is worth far more than what we charge for it, and we’re making it even better.” Hi folks, I have to admit that I was quite worried about launching the Nelson Exclusive May 2016. I didn’t know what to expect, and as we’ve progressed with new ideas each and every month, I’ve been working hard to incorporate feedback. For starters, we’re going to be moving to tracking the income characteristics of the income ideas on a go-forward basis as a measure of their success. Many members have voiced this long-term income-oriented preference, and frankly we think it makes a lot of sense. Not one income idea in the Exclusive has cut its dividend! But … Read more

Admit It: You Know Nothing About the Dividend

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President of Investment Research Brian Nelson talks about how the concept of a dividend is completely miscontrued due to societal and cultural reasons, but he also explains why he likes dividends. Warning: He’s going to bust out Monopoly pieces. You don’t want to miss this! Running time: ~15 minutes.

I Love Dividends But the Dividend Discount Model is DEAD!

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President of Investment Research Brian Nelson gives a plethora of reasons why the dividend discount model is dead and expresses his worries about how it continues to be used academically and professionally. Also included is a discussion about why the weighted average cost of capital, or the WACC, is used in the enterprise free cash flow valuation process, or the free cash flow to the firm process. Running time: ~13 minutes.

#14? You Can’t Control The Market

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Image shown: Wall Street Journal front pages from the Financial Crisis — a reminder that an investor cannot control the markets.

Should this be added to the “13 Steps…” piece?

EVERYTHING DIVIDENDS + 3 TOP IDEAS

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The Valuentum analyst team explains the difference between the adjusted Dividend Cushion ratio and its unadjusted counterpart. The success of the Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio is covered, and Valuentum’s top 3 dividend growth ideas are unveiled. ~13 minutes. If you are unable to view the video below, please select the link here or view the transcript below. Kris Rosemann: Hello and welcome to the Valuentum Securities podcast. My name is Kris Rosemann and with me today is Chris Araos and Brian Nelson, the president of equity research and ETF analysis here at Valuentum, and today we’re going to be discussing the Dividend Cushion ratio, the Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio, and some of our favorite dividend ideas on the market today. So … Read more

Are Corporate Credit Ratings Really Useful?

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Image Source: Simon Cunningham  There is no way… hold on, let me start over. There is absolutely no way that a company whose primary product price can fall 50% or more in a couple months is a pristine AAA-rated credit. It makes little sense. Having evaluated the credits of hundreds of companies spanning all sectors and industries, you’re never going to convince me that such a business model is worthy of a coveted AAA credit rating. Never. This week, Standard & Poor’s (MHFI) reiterated Exxon Mobil’s (XOM) AAA rating, as if the conditions that shellacked the energy markets the past 6 months simply do not apply to Exxon. Instead, the rating agency opted to lower the firm’s liquidity rating from … Read more

Booyah! Jim Cramer Under Attack!

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TheStreet’s director, major shareholder, and employee is under fire from an activist investor that has disclosed a near-9% stake. Per SEC Filing: J. Carlo CannellCannell Capital LLCP.O. Box 3459, 150 East Hansen Avenue, Jackson, WY 83001(307) 733-2284 Mr. James J. CramerDirectorTheStreet, Inc.14 Wall StreetNew York, NY 10005   Cannell Capital LLC – that twenty-two-year-old SEC-registered investment advisor which manages sundry accounts that collectively owned 8.95% percent of TheStreet,Inc. (“TST” or the “Company”) as of December 2, 2014 – hereby amends its filing position as regards TST from passive to active because certain matters of governance concern it. The structure of your relationship with TST leads these concerns. Allow me to review some facts. 1. The market capitalization of TST has … Read more

Is Predicting Stock Prices Easy? 100% of Economists Say “No Way!”

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By Brian Nelson, CFA “Don’t get frustrated if one or two of your ideas don’t work out. This is to be expected in a portfolio of stocks. You’re investing to achieve your goals. It is only human and natural to be wrong sometimes.” The University of Chicago’s Initiative on Global Markets frequently puts out a survey from a variety of different standpoints on relevant issues of the day. Though the write-up from the World Economic Forum goes into countering “the general perception that economists rarely agree on anything,” we were quite interested in one particular dynamic: 100% of economists think predicting stock prices is difficult, while 45% of the public thinks predicting stock prices is not difficult (presumably easy). The … Read more

The Dividend Dilemma

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One of the core tenets of the Valuentum process not only rests in the all-important price vs. value consideration (see Valuentum’s Brian Nelson talk about that here), but also in “letting winners run.” At first read, these two items appear to be at odds with each other. For example, we preach about getting stocks at a bargain, but yet, we don’t sell holdings when they start to move beyond our estimate of their fair value. What gives? At the Valuentum core, we prefer an entry point that corresponds to the time when shares have substantial valuation and pricing support (i.e. they have high Valuentum Buying Index ratings), and we prefer an exit point when shares have little valuation and pricing … Read more

Valuentum Economic Castleâ„¢ Rating Update

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Read: Keeping the Horse Before the Cart: Valuentum’s Economic Castle™ Rating The Economic Castle Focuses on the Magnitude of Economic Value Creation The Valuentum Economic Castle™ rating is an enhancement of the competitive advantage framework (commonly known as economic moat analysis) that has become widespread and ubiquitous within the investing world. Whereas an economic moat framework evaluates a firm on the basis of the sustainability and durability of its competitive advantages, Valuentum’s Economic Castle™ rating evaluates a firm on the basis of the firm’s future economic profit spread (return on invested capital less its weighted average cost of capital). The companies with the strongest Valuentum Economic Castle™ ratings are poised to generate the most economic value for shareholders in the … Read more