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Let’s Talk Business Analysis

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Valuentum’s Brian Nelson explains the benefits of combining both economic moat and economic castle analysis in business analysis. An excerpt from part II of Valuentum’s four-part investment education workshop. If you cannot see the video, please view the transcript below or select the link here. If you would like to purchase Valuentum’s investment education workshop, please visit the page here. Brian Nelson, CFA: “In business I look for economic castles, protected by unbreachable moats… (quoting Warren Buffett).” If you take out some of the prepositions, Warren Buffett looks for economic castles. So what we do is we provide the analysis associated with the Economic Castle rating. The Economic Castle rating is based on the academic framework that suggests that economic profit … Read more

Post-Earnings Update: AbbVie

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Image Source: Global Panorama AbbVie’s top-line performance has been relatively strong (unlike its big pharma peers), translating into a generous dividend–further enhancing the appeal of the equity. But is the company’s attractive fundamentals about to change? Let’s take a look at AbbVie’s fundamentals following its second-quarter report, released July 28. By Alexander J. Poulos Overview One of the main appeals of big-pharma companies such as AbbVie (ABBV) and peers Merck (MRK), Eli Lilly (LLY), and Pfizer (PFE) is their comparatively attractive dividend-yield potential as high margins generated from patent-protected compounds lead to internally generated cash flows above the funding needs of the business. As long as big pharma firms can continue to churn out a steady stream of new products … Read more

Generic Drug Price Deflation Continues to Weigh on Shares of Teva

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Shares of former Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio idea Teva Pharmaceuticals have come under renewed selling pressure after reporting weak quarterly results due largely to deflationary price pressures felt in the generic drug division. Teva has been relatively powerless in stopping the trend. We had removed the shares from the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio well before the last leg down, and the Dividend Cushion ratio warned of tremendous risk to the sustainability of the dividend far in advance. By Alexander J. Poulos and Kris Rosemann Generic Drug Deflation Teva Pharmaceuticals (TEVA) maintains its position as one of the world’s largest manufacturer of generic medications, but the marketplace for a generic drug differs from the market dynamics of the branded space. We view … Read more

Our Bullish Thesis on Gilead Sciences

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We have become enamored with the potential of Gilead Sciences once again as the recent slide in the share price has in our view shaken out the speculative money that fueled the meteoric rise of the equity in 2015. As a value-based research publisher, we tend to focus on the sustainability of cash flow. In the case of Gilead, many believed that all hope had been lost as the continued decline in its Hepatitis C franchise would depress potential future gains. We are heartened by the recent earnings release and technical move, which have combined to give us comfort in adding Gilead Sciences to both the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio and Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio. By Alexander J. Poulos Overview … Read more

A Review of Johnson and Johnson’s Pharmaceutical Division

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Image Source: J&J Let’s take a deep dive into Johnson and Johnson’s pharmaceutical division Janssen Pharmaceuticals. Janssen traditionally serves as an area of clinical innovation adding an element of growth to the more stable product categories such as consumer health. However, there may be a few cracks in the Janssen revenue stream that could make growth at J&J harder to come by over the next few years. By Alexander J. Poulos Overview The venerable Johnson and Johnson (JNJ) has earned the sterling reputation that the firm has built over the countless decades of steady performance. J&J is a bedrock of the health care sector sporting a sterling credit rating along with the ability to seemingly consistently churn out revenue and … Read more

Amgen’s Pipeline Continues to Disappoint

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Image Source: Amgen The ability to generate commercially-viable products via the clinical pipeline is crucial to grow profits and offset revenue declines from the loss of patent protection. We remain unimpressed with the progress shown thus far by biotech stalwart Amgen. Let’s review the clinical pipeline along with a consideration of the recently-released earnings report. By Alexander J. Poulos Clinical Pipeline We believe the three most promising molecules in Amgen’s (AMGN) pipeline in order of importance are Repatha, Evenity, and Erenumab. Amgen’s ability to develop and market these products will go a long way to shore up the top-line revenue as older products begin to face biosimilar challenges that continue to sap revenue and profits. Let’s examine each in further … Read more

Pipeline Woes Continue to Plague Amgen

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Image Source: kibbles_bits By Alexander J. Poulos Earnings Release We have written a few bearish pieces on biotech stalwart Amgen (AMGN) this year. In the first piece, “The Dreaded Patent Cliff: 3 Pharmaceutical Companies at Risk,” we presented a number of areas of concern, most notably the expected drop in revenue from Amgen’s two main products. In its first-quarter earnings release, issued April 26, Amgen posted earnings per share of $3.15 on a non-GAAP basis versus $2.90 for the same period last year. Upon first glance, the numbers would indicate solid growth, but upon further examination, a worrisome trend emerges. The “earnings beat” is a direct result of a decrease in expenses and a lower share count, as top line … Read more

Valuentum’s 3 Breakthroughs in the Field of Finance and More

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Valuentum’s President Brian Nelson pauses for a picture before speaking at the CFA Society of Houston in March 2017. By Valuentum Editorial Staff Let’s cover Valuentum’s 3 major breakthroughs in the field of finance. The first one is big and may challenge you to rethink everything you think you know about investing. 1. On a logical framework, Valuentum has debunked John C. Bogle’s landmark syllogism that has paved the way for the concept of index investing. Index investing has been built on a logical shortcoming, whether supported by evidence or not. We think it is important that the investment community know of this. Read (pdf): The “Luck” and “Randomness” of Index Funds (2018), Brian Nelson, CFA See video documentation: /FALLACY_of_Index_Funds To … Read more

Three Notable Pending FDA Approvals

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Image Source: Brandon Giesbrecht The final step of the drug approval process is the filing of a new drug application (NDA), when the FDA assesses trial results before deciding if the treatment warrants marketing approval. A delay or rejection can have a meaningful impact on the equity price, so let’s dig into a few notable upcoming decisions. By Alexander J. Poulos and Kris Rosemann Baricitinib Baricitinib is a Janus Kinase 1&2 inhibitor that is being studied for the treatment of a wide range of inflammatory diseases, and clinical trials for the indication of rheumatoid arthritis conclusively demonstrated superiority to placebo–and Humira. The superiority to Humira, in our view, is a key differentiator in the crowded inflammatory disease market, a direct result … Read more

Can Vertex Pharmaceuticals Dominate the Race to Treat Cystic Fibrosis?

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Tickerized for holdings in the XLV and IBB. Cystic Fibrosis is a rare disease that afflicts an estimated seventy-five thousand patients worldwide. Vertex Pharmaceuticals is the first to market with a combination treatment to treat a portion of the overall patient population. Will Vertex win the race to bring forth a triple therapy to treat the vast majority of those afflicted? By Alexander J. Poulos Cystic fibrosis (CF) is a recessive genetic disorder. The patient that is afflicted will carry two copies of the cystic fibrosis conductance regulator protein (CFTR) gene. The CFTR gene allows the body to produce the CFTR protein, whose function is to remove chloride from the cells. Patients that have CF will suffer from a “thickening” … Read more