IBM

Valuentum’s 3 Breakthroughs in the Field of Finance and More

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Valuentum’s President Brian Nelson pauses for a picture before speaking at the CFA Society of Houston in March 2017. By Valuentum Editorial Staff Let’s cover Valuentum’s 3 major breakthroughs in the field of finance. The first one is big and may challenge you to rethink everything you think you know about investing. 1. On a logical framework, Valuentum has debunked John C. Bogle’s landmark syllogism that has paved the way for the concept of index investing. Index investing has been built on a logical shortcoming, whether supported by evidence or not. We think it is important that the investment community know of this. Read (pdf): The “Luck” and “Randomness” of Index Funds (2018), Brian Nelson, CFA See video documentation: /FALLACY_of_Index_Funds To … Read more

Dow 21,000+; Forward P/E on S&P 500 ~18!!!

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By Brian Nelson, CFA To say that the broader equity market is “extended” is an understatement. After testing the 20,000 mark on the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DIA), stocks have now plowed through 21,000 in such a fashion that can only be compared to the euphoric trading activity of 1999 when the index surged to 11,000 from 10,000 over roughly the same time frame. Who remembers the days of the dot-com bubble? The market is clearly off its rocker, but the market isn’t always on its rocker. Stock prices under and overshoot intrinsic value all of the time. It’s a part of the markets, as much as oxygen is necessary for human life. The markets overshot to the downside during … Read more

Calendar Fourth Quarter Earnings Roundup: IBM, GE, PG, UNP

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Image Source: texasfeel Let’s get our thoughts on calendar fourth-quarter performance from a few giants in their respective industries. By Kris Rosemann and Brian Nelson, CFA International Business Machines IBM’s (IBM) stock is now back above the $170 per-share mark after falling below $120 per share just a little over a year ago. Five-year performance of the equity, however, still remains terrible, with shares of IBM languishing around the price they were changing hands at the beginning of 2012. Warren Buffett’s association with the stock has a lot of investors excited, but we think the Oracle of Omaha may be a bit too optimistic on this one. Year-over-year revenue at IBM has been under considerable pressure for some time, and … Read more

The Next Industrial Revolution – Internet of Things

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Image Source: Skyworks Summary: ·        The Internet of Things has been called ‘the next Industrial Revolution,’ and the revolution is already well underway. ·        Explosive growth can be expected in the number of devices connected to the Internet in coming years, and the data extracted from such devices will enable businesses to make significant value creating improvements to operations. ·        The proliferation of the Internet of Things will take a combined effort from the end user of the technology to smart device manufacturers to software providers to networks. ·        The newsletter portfolios have significant exposure to early large-cap adopters of the IoT. We love the potential we see in some of our favorite names to capitalize on ‘the next Industrial … Read more

Video: An Overview of Our 16-page Stock Research Reports

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Can’t view the video walk-through of our 16-page reports on your mobile device? Download the Puffin Web Browser App from Apple free. Click here. Unable to display content. Adobe Flash is required.

I Thought I Made a Mistake

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By Brian Nelson, CFA It was nearing the end of 2015, and I don’t think I was more bullish on a stock than Intel (INTC). In October 2015, I published that “Intel may have a breakout year in 2016.” I liked what Intel had done to keep AMD’s (AMD) back against the wall, and the chip giant was making nice strides in the mobile market against Qualcomm (QCOM), particularly with key phone-maker, Apple (AAPL). I liked the acquisition of Altera in part because the company is a free-cash-flow generating machine with little capital intensity. Field-programmable gate arrays (FPGAs) will continue to reshape the semiconductor landscape, and the Altera purchase will give Intel a leg up. Well, it didn’t take long … Read more

Understanding the Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) Designation

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“Among the countless finance degrees around the world, the Chartered Financial Analyst qualification has become the gold standard.” – Financial Times, 13 August 2010 “[The] qualification is roughly equivalent to a specialized postgraduate finance degree, including a mixture of economics, ethics, law, and accountancy… Whereas there are tens of thousands of finance degrees available around the world, ranging from the excellent to the worthless, there is only one CFA, managed and examined by an American association of financial professionals, the CFA Institute.” – the Economist From the CFA Institute: “The Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) charter is an investment credential that, for more than 60 years, has been the global standard for embodying the integrity, dedication, and advanced skills needed to … Read more

Part III: Nelson’s Evaluation of Berkshire’s 2015 Annual Report

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<< Go back to Part I << Go back to Part II By Brian Nelson, CFA It’s always a wonder to open up on the Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A, BRK.B) annual report for a large variety of different reasons, but every time I do I can’t help but ponder yesteryear through the table on page 2, “Berkshire’s Performance vs. the S&P 500.” I think I have a unique knack for imagining what might have been if today’s standards would have been applied to Berkshire in the 1970s, perhaps in some ways how many baseball fans may think about whether the legends of the past would have put up the type of numbers that they did if presented with today’s dynamics. For … Read more

Did You Know: Coca-Cola Is Shrinking; Intel Is Growing?

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How fragile is this bubbly market? The long-anticipated Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) conference in Doha, Qatar, that would mark the beginning of the end for all of crude oil’s (USO) malaise came and went, and nothing happened. We’ve now had a series of rumors about the potential for production freezes that have driven crude oil prices from the mid-$20s to nearly $40 per barrel, but nothing fundamental has changed. The bump in crude oil prices since the bottom has been almost entirely speculative. Crude oil prices would jump on rumors, and then when the rumor would prove untrue, they wouldn’t give back the gains. It appears hopes, dreams and speculation with a dash of short covering have … Read more

ETE Down 70%; IBM Poor Quality, Netflix Begins to Implode

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Shown above: Energy Transfer Equity’s recent share price performance. A lot of investors depend on us for our energy research. We’ve been busy publishing on the website, and we can’t possibly send out all of our research via email, so please come visit. Many are aware of our take in any case: the energy master limited partnership (AMLP, AMZ) isn’t going away tomorrow, but it may not last over the long haul. This is nothing new. We’ve been saying this since the peak in energy MLP share prices, which just so happened to coincide with Energy Transfer Equity’s (ETE) heights in the mid-$30s. Our readers understand that we’re taking the long view with MLPs when we talk about business models … Read more