HOG

Starbucks Facing New Era of Challenges?

by

There are core problems lurking at Starbucks, in our view, and the idea that the chain will triple the number of company-owned store closings in US markets in fiscal 2019, to 150 (from 50, on average, in prior years), is rather telling that something’s not quite right, regardless of whether it may be too-high of prices, changing consumer preferences (millennials), increasing competition (McDonald’s, Dunkin’ Donuts), oversaturation in densely-penetrated markets–or a combination of all of the above. By Brian Nelson, CFA On June 19, Starbucks (SBUX) reset investor expectations lower, just a couple weeks after former CEO and executive chairman Howard Schultz announced he is walking away from the business to pursue other personal interests, some speculating that it will be a … Read more

Study: Valuentum’s Best Ideas Newsletter Portfolio

by

To read the study, please click on the image to download the pdf document (pdf).

ICYMI: Valuentum’s Improved Stock and ETF Web Pages

by

Valuentum has rolled out improved stock and ETF web pages on its website valuentum.com/. Now, subscribers can access key proprietary information on the stock and ETF web pages in addition to the customary stock and ETF reports. Dear reader, We have some exciting news that we can’t wait to share with you! At valuentum.com/, we have rolled out new stock and ETF pages that conveniently include a variety of our proprietary metrics from the Dividend Cushion ratio to the Economic Castle rating and beyond! There’s even mouseover functionality so you can learn about how we define the key metrics across our stock-selection and dividend growth methodologies. You’ll still have access to the stock and dividend reports on the landing pages, … Read more

Trump Targets China with Tariffs

by

Image: Shanghai, China (December 2016), Andrey Filippov Stock markets in the US are slowly building in the prospect of retaliation (a “trade war”) from China, as a result of President Trump’s new tariffs. We maintain our view that the stock market has been frothy for some time, and the recent volatility may just be the beginning of a reversion to normalized valuations, with or without concerns about global trade. By Brian Nelson, CFA The market may be using concerns about a “trade war” as a reason to sell overpriced stock. According to Factset, as of March 16, the forward 12-month price-to-earnings ratio for the S&P 500 is still over 17 times, one turn more than the 5-year average and nearly … Read more

The “Luck” and “Randomness” of Index Funds

by

Please select the image below to download the document. Image shown, page 1 of 14. Tickerized for Valuentum’s coverage universe.

Trump’s Tariffs Ignite Concerns about Protectionism, Rising Input Costs

by

Image Source: Michael Vadon President Trump is making true on his promises to protect the domestic steel and aluminum industries. Input costs may move higher for many global industrials, and the long-term implications of protectionist policy will be tested. We’re not expecting retaliation, but we can’t rule it out either. Rising rates remain our primary concern. Kris Rosemann and Brian Nelson, CFA If rising interest rates aren’t enough to give the market heartburn, President Trump announced March 1 that he will impose tariffs on the importation of steel and aluminum to the tune of 25% and 10%, respectively, citing national security concerns. Steel and aluminum stocks rallied hard on the news, but it left many of its industrial brethren under … Read more

Video: Quants! You’re NOT Measuring VALUE and Nelson’s Theory of Universal Value

by

President of Investment Research Brian Nelson defines the concept of universal value and shows how quantitative statistical methods are inextricably linked to those of fundamental, financial, business-model related analysis. Value does not exist in respective process vacuums! Value is universal. Find out why. Running time: ~10 minutes.  Tickerized for Valuentum’s stock and ETF coverage universe. Transcript Hi this is Brian Nelson from Valuentum Securities, and this is the tenth edition of a series that I call “Off the Cuff,” where I get in front of the camera and I talk for ten minutes. This is what we have to talk about today. We have to talk about this concept: The Theory of Universal Value. Value does not exist in vacuums … Read more

Why Won’t GM Break Out Already?

by

What is it going to take for General Motors to catapult to new heights? By Brian Nelson, CFA August was a busy month for the auto makers. Following General Motors’ (GM) fantastic second-quarter results in late July, we thought shares of the auto giant would have surged higher, but they have been stuck in neutral, despite what we consider to be a very, very attractive valuation and an equally attractive dividend yield. Read why we think “General Motors May Offer an Incredible Opportunity (July 2017).” Where Tesla (TSLA) and Ferrari (RACE) are trading at rather high valuation multiples, poor GM can’t even get a double-digit multiple on current-year earnings, despite what we consider to be a solid balance sheet. What … Read more

Stocks in the News: Harley-Davidson, Johnson & Johnson, Netflix

by

Earnings season is picking up. Let’s evaluate a few quarterly reports from some bellwethers. By Brian Nelson, CFA Harley-Davidson (HOG) Not Revving Like It Used To We plan to update our report and fair value estimate of Harley-Davidson following its weak second-quarter report, released July 18. Both revenue and net income faced pressure on a year-over-year basis in the period, with earnings per share falling 4.5%. Management spoke of “challenging market conditions,” and the executive team is right about that: Harley-Davidson worldwide retail motorcycle sales fell 6.7% in the quarter, while Harley-Davidson retail motorcycle sales in the US were down more than 9%. The company’s US market share is holding up (~48.5%), but we are starting to worry about more … Read more

Valuentum’s 3 Breakthroughs in the Field of Finance and More

by

Valuentum’s President Brian Nelson pauses for a picture before speaking at the CFA Society of Houston in March 2017. By Valuentum Editorial Staff Let’s cover Valuentum’s 3 major breakthroughs in the field of finance. The first one is big and may challenge you to rethink everything you think you know about investing. 1. On a logical framework, Valuentum has debunked John C. Bogle’s landmark syllogism that has paved the way for the concept of index investing. Index investing has been built on a logical shortcoming, whether supported by evidence or not. We think it is important that the investment community know of this. Read (pdf): The “Luck” and “Randomness” of Index Funds (2018), Brian Nelson, CFA See video documentation: /FALLACY_of_Index_Funds To … Read more