HABT

Video: Quants! You’re NOT Measuring VALUE and Nelson’s Theory of Universal Value

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President of Investment Research Brian Nelson defines the concept of universal value and shows how quantitative statistical methods are inextricably linked to those of fundamental, financial, business-model related analysis. Value does not exist in respective process vacuums! Value is universal. Find out why. Running time: ~10 minutes.  Tickerized for Valuentum’s stock and ETF coverage universe. Transcript Hi this is Brian Nelson from Valuentum Securities, and this is the tenth edition of a series that I call “Off the Cuff,” where I get in front of the camera and I talk for ten minutes. This is what we have to talk about today. We have to talk about this concept: The Theory of Universal Value. Value does not exist in vacuums … Read more

Earnings Snapshot: Cracker Barrel’s Hidden 5%+ Dividend Yield

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Cracker Barrel is holding its share-price uptrend nicely. The company is one of our favorite restaurants thanks in part to its differentiated niche and country store concept. Special dividend payouts make it a hidden income gem, in our view. By Brian Nelson, CFA Here’s what we wrote last May, “Cracker Barrel Hits the Trifecta!:” Cracker Barrel’s (CBRL) store-within-a-restaurant concept is one of the best revenue-generators per square foot around, and it is run by a management team that knows the importance of the dividend to income investors. We continue to believe it is a great fit for the Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio and an often overlooked one in light of its preponderance of special dividends that often fly under the … Read more

Valuentum’s 3 Breakthroughs in the Field of Finance and More

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Valuentum’s President Brian Nelson pauses for a picture before speaking at the CFA Society of Houston in March 2017. By Valuentum Editorial Staff Let’s cover Valuentum’s 3 major breakthroughs in the field of finance. The first one is big and may challenge you to rethink everything you think you know about investing. 1. On a logical framework, Valuentum has debunked John C. Bogle’s landmark syllogism that has paved the way for the concept of index investing. Index investing has been built on a logical shortcoming, whether supported by evidence or not. We think it is important that the investment community know of this. Read (pdf): The “Luck” and “Randomness” of Index Funds (2018), Brian Nelson, CFA See video documentation: /FALLACY_of_Index_Funds To … Read more

Examining Same-Store Sales in the Restaurant Industry

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Key Takeaways September 2016 marked the fourth consecutive month of same-store restaurant sales declines, but the pressure is not indiscriminant. Millennials account for nearly a quarter of restaurant spending and are anticipated to account for 40% of restaurant purchases by 2020. Their preferences are becoming important considerations for the strategic planning of restaurants. Fast food restaurants with exposure to the coffee and breakfast segments appear to be faring better than those with limited or no exposure to the segments. Experiential dining is becoming increasingly important in the full-service arena as the gap between grocery prices and food away from home prices has widened of late.     By Kris Rosemann The broader restaurant sector (BITE) has been under pressure as of … Read more

Restaurant Traffic – What’s Going On?

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By Kris Rosemann What’s going on with restaurant stocks these days?  Sonic’s (SONC) announcement of preliminary results for the fiscal fourth quarter of 2016, ended August 31, has been the latest catalyst to drag the restaurant sector (BITE) lower due to it reporting “lower-than-expected traffic, reflecting lower consumer spending in restaurants and continued aggressive competitive activity.” Our newsletter portfolios have not been spared the pain as shares of Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio holding Cracker Barrel (CBRL) have faced pressure since its fiscal fourth quarter report September 14, and Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio holding Buffalo Wild Wings (BWLD) has suffered as a result of the weak data as well. Sonic’s report was not the first we’ve been hearing of slowing consumer … Read more

Fast Casual Burger Growth Sizzling!

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The burger market within the restaurant industry is the largest dine-out segment in the US with more than $70 billion in yearly sales. It is estimated to be twice the size of the next largest category, the pizza market, and has proven to be successful around the globe as well, with an estimated global market size of more than $135 billion. We expect overall “burger demand” to continue to increase at a GDP-like pace and generally ebb and flow with the broader economic cycle, as consumers trade-up in good times and trade-down in troubled times. Concept proliferation by new entrants may offer an incremental tailwind to the overall market size, while lower prices at the gas pump have already offered … Read more

Turnaround Plan at McDonald’s Does Not Fly With Franchisees

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Image Source: Mike Mozart Things haven’t been going well at McDonald’s (MCD), and they might not get better anytime soon. McDonald’s initial turnaround plan, released May 4, left a great deal to be desired. Though the major points of the plan seem to be improvements, there was a lack of detail about how to fix the restaurant’s menu issues while improving service speeds, two major areas of concern we have with the fast-food giant. Nevertheless, management is confident that its efforts will return the company to an industry leader, as it works toward its goals as a modern, progressive burger company. We’re not so sure. Starting on July 1, the firm’s organizational structure will be revamped. It will group the … Read more

10 Bucks per Hour; What It Really Means

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Source: US Department of Labor, Walmart Walmart (WMT) is quite savvy. The big box retailer announced February 19 it would raise the minimum wage for all of its US workers to $9 per hour in April of this year and at least $10 per hour by next February. The move comes amid ongoing public scrutiny of its labor practices, elevated worker turnover, and general malaise among the ranks on social media platforms. At face value, the news headlines show Walmart caving to public pressure, and a win for big labor, but in reality, the retailing giant is merely doing what good businesses do – pleasing customers (which are its workers, too) and widening its economic moat. Hiking wages accomplishes both. … Read more

Yum! Brands’ Fourth-Quarter Earnings Preview

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Yum! Brands reports after the bell today. Watch Valuentum’s President Brian Nelson on CNBCAsia at 5:40CT. If 16%+ comparable-store sales growth during any given period can ever be described as such, Chipotle (CMG) dropped the ball during its calendar fourth quarter. The fast-casual burrito maker’s shares are facing pressure as a result of management’s overly conservative comp guidance of low-to-mid-single digit growth for 2015, as if we haven’t seen this before. Chipotle sets the bar low and then hurdles over it like an Olympic high-jumper. McDonald’s (MCD), on the other hand, is in a world of hurt, and with CEO Don Thompson’s retirement, the brand has been shaken to the core as it struggles to connect with millennials. Investors in … Read more

New England Wins!

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Does that mean we’re doomed in 2015? Don’t be silly. The Super Bowl indicator, which says that if a team from the NFC wins we’re in for a good year, is akin to reading the stars. But the AFC’s Patriots won the big game – so does that mean 2015 will disappoint? Perhaps 2015 will…but certainly not because of the Patriots won the Super Bowl. A person doesn’t have to look much further than the NFC’s New York Giants winning the Super Bowl in 2008 to understand why such things just don’t matter. The dawn of the Financial Crisis that year sent stocks a-tumbling. It’s unfortunate that such things get so much attention because it makes it sound like the … Read more