Exclusive Analysis for the Discerning Investor
Find out what you may have missed with a short excerpt by speaker Brian Nelson from part III of Valuentum’s four-part investment education workshop. You may be surprised! To view Valuentum’s updated YouTube page, please see here. Originally published February 2015.
As we arguably near the “peak” in the business cycle, labor is starting to demand more, a dynamic that we believe is emblematic of the period of aging economic expansion. Let’s have a look at what’s happening in the fight for higher wages. By Brian Nelson, CFA Each business cycle is different in both magnitude and duration, but there are some common qualities that define where an economy might be within the cycle. First, it has been more than 8 years since the March 2009 stock-market panic bottom, a period that witnessed firms such as Lehman Brothers, Bear Stearns, and AIG (AIG) flounder. The unemployment rate peaked at 10% during that difficult time. Since then, the US economy has emerged … Read more
Valuentum’s President Brian Nelson pauses for a picture before speaking at the CFA Society of Houston in March 2017. By Valuentum Editorial Staff Let’s cover Valuentum’s 3 major breakthroughs in the field of finance. The first one is big and may challenge you to rethink everything you think you know about investing. 1. On a logical framework, Valuentum has debunked John C. Bogle’s landmark syllogism that has paved the way for the concept of index investing. Index investing has been built on a logical shortcoming, whether supported by evidence or not. We think it is important that the investment community know of this. Read (pdf): The “Luck” and “Randomness” of Index Funds (2018), Brian Nelson, CFA See video documentation: /FALLACY_of_Index_Funds To … Read more
Let’s keep the good times going, would you say? Brian Nelson, CFA The good news during this first-quarter earnings season hasn’t let up, and we must say we’re very happy to say so. Newsletter portfolio holdings, our favorite ideas at any time, continue to exceed expectations. The Valuentum Buying Index helps us identify new ideas to consider, while the Dividend Cushion ratio helps us avoid dividend cuts. The Economic Castle rating helps us identify the best economic value-creators across our coverage universe. All three of these metrics (and our opinions on many more, including fair values/ranges and the like) you can’t find anywhere else but at Valuentum. We don’t leave any stones unturned when it comes to investment analysis. In … Read more
Let’s go around the horn with recent investment-related news. Let’s say goodbye to Panera, talk about SeaDrill’s infamous demise, follow up on the Coach dividend saga, address Cisco’s payout strength and attractive valuation, update readers on Medtronic’s portfolio optimization initiatives, and try to reason through Tesla’s recent price surge. By Kris Rosemann and Brian Nelson, CFA Goodbye Panera I think most of us were surprised a bit Wednesday morning, April 5, to see Panera Bread (PNRA) taken private by JAB Holding Company for $315 per share in cash. Shares of Panera started the year just above the $200 price tag, so the buyout is a nice payoff for investors that have been holding strong in the fast-casual concept. JAB … Read more
Image Source: CNBC Asia President of Investment Research at Valuentum Brian Nelson talks Yum China (YUMC) on CNBC Asia. ~2 minutes.
Key Takeaways September 2016 marked the fourth consecutive month of same-store restaurant sales declines, but the pressure is not indiscriminant. Millennials account for nearly a quarter of restaurant spending and are anticipated to account for 40% of restaurant purchases by 2020. Their preferences are becoming important considerations for the strategic planning of restaurants. Fast food restaurants with exposure to the coffee and breakfast segments appear to be faring better than those with limited or no exposure to the segments. Experiential dining is becoming increasingly important in the full-service arena as the gap between grocery prices and food away from home prices has widened of late. By Kris Rosemann The broader restaurant sector (BITE) has been under pressure as of … Read more
By Kris Rosemann What’s going on with restaurant stocks these days? Sonic’s (SONC) announcement of preliminary results for the fiscal fourth quarter of 2016, ended August 31, has been the latest catalyst to drag the restaurant sector (BITE) lower due to it reporting “lower-than-expected traffic, reflecting lower consumer spending in restaurants and continued aggressive competitive activity.” Our newsletter portfolios have not been spared the pain as shares of Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio holding Cracker Barrel (CBRL) have faced pressure since its fiscal fourth quarter report September 14, and Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio holding Buffalo Wild Wings (BWLD) has suffered as a result of the weak data as well. Sonic’s report was not the first we’ve been hearing of slowing consumer … Read more
Image Source: Yum! Brands, 2015 Annual Report By Jessica Bishop Squashing a recent report from Bloomberg that suggested the Yum! (YUM) separation had been delayed, the executive team heading the KFC, Pizza Hut and Taco Bell franchises said in its second quarter 2016 report, released after the close July 14, that all is well with plans to separate its fast-growing operations in China from the rest of the company. We outlined our latest thoughts on the China separation in our late June piece, “Yum! Does One Plus One Equal More Than Two?” and while not much has changed in the past few weeks, we continue to monitor Yum! — not only in the event the separation causes a mispricing with … Read more
Image source: McDonald’s Investor Relations page By Kris Rosemann McDonald’s Comps Still Expanding McDonald’s (MCD) continues to believe in the turnaround strategy it implemented about a year ago, and the market appears to be on board as well. The company’s biggest appeal remains its brand recognition, and the above screen grab of its ‘Investor Relations’ page on the corporate site hints that it is well aware of this. Nevertheless, the burger giant has had a solid string of quarters as of late. Global comparable sales in the first quarter of 2016 increased more than 6% from the year-ago period, and US comparable sales grew 5.4% thanks to the broad acceptance of its All Day Breakfast strategy. We were skeptical of … Read more