DISCA

Thinking Slow: 3 Research Blind Spots That Changed the Investment World

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Dear members: — Daniel Kahneman in his text Thinking, Fast and Slow (1) divided the human psyche into two systems. The first system is instinctive and emotional, often set on autopilot, while the second system is slower and more logical, requiring a calculating conscious. Many of the maxims the investment world takes for granted today suffer from conclusions that are made rapidly, almost without thinking, driven by our first system, creating what I call research blind spots. — In World War II, Allied bombing raids were suffering from very high casualty rates. It was estimated that for those pilots that were flying at the beginning of the war, only about 10% survived, a terrible loss rate. Bombing was crucial to the Allied … Read more

Paper: Value and Momentum Within Stocks, Too

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Please select the image below to download, “Value and Momentum Within Stocks, Too:” Abstract: This paper strives to advance the field of finance in four ways: 1) it extends the theory of the “The Arithmetic of Active Management” to the investor level; 2) it addresses certain data problems of factor-based methods, namely with respect to value and book-to-market ratios, while introducing price-to-fair-value ratios in a factor-based approach; 3) it may lay the foundation for academic literature regarding the Valuentum, the value-timing, and ultra-momentum factors; and 4) it walks through the potential relative outperformance that may be harvested at the intersection of relevant, unique and compensated factors within individual stocks. To download the full report, please click here (pdf). ———- Actual results … Read more

Something New!

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Hi everyone: To stay true to our mission, you’ll find something new regarding our methodology. In the coming weeks, you’ll see this table in our work going forward. We just wanted to let you know. We appreciate your membership very much!   ——————————————— About Our Name But how, you will ask, does one decide what [stocks are] “attractive”? Most analysts feel they must choose between two approaches customarily thought to be in opposition: “value” and “growth,”…We view that as fuzzy thinking…Growth is always a component of value [and] the very term “value investing” is redundant.                          — Warren Buffett, Berkshire Hathaway annual report, 1992 At Valuentum, we take Buffett’s thoughts one step further. We think the best opportunities arise from an understanding of … Read more

Announcing Valuentum’s Customer Appreciation Day Winners!

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In no particular order — the five winners… As a Chief Investment Strategist that oversees a significant amount of assets, it is vital to have unbiased research that we can lean on for decision making. Brian and the Valuentum team help provide a disciplined and fundamental approach to stock analysis without the typical Wall Street bias or conflicts of interest. The value we get on a monthly basis for having this detailed thought analysis and wise long-term thinking greatly outweighs the cost. We are very happy to have them on our short list of management we trust.  – Stephen H. (October 2022) —– I’d like you to know what my takeaways are from your research: 1) Be wary of capital … Read more

New Payment Option! Valuentum Research Update!

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Hi everyone: — We’re excited to say that we’re adding additional payment flexibility at Valuentum. — Many members have expressed interest in paying via other providers, and we have added Square to the mix. You can use credit or debit card or bank (ACH) to pay via invoice. — With all of the goings-on in the financial technology and payments space, we wanted to continue to provide members options to pay their memberships how they want and through who they want. You can always reach out to us at info@valuentum.com. — You’ll notice that we’ve also tightened our focus at Valuentum during the past 12-24 months in advance of what has certainly become a more difficult 2022 than even some … Read more

AT&T and Warner Bros. Discovery Go Their Separate Ways

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Image Shown: AT&T Inc is spending heavily to grow its 5G wireless network while expanding the reach of its broadband footprint. Image Source: AT&T Inc – March 2022 Analyst & Investor Day Event Presentation By Callum Turcan On April 8, AT&T Inc (T) closed the merger of the WarnerMedia business with Discovery to create a powerhouse in the media and entertainment industry after then-Discovery shareholders voted to approve the deal on March 11. The new entity, Warner Bros. Discovery Inc (WBD), is home to various streaming services (HBO Max, discovery+, CNN+) along with linear and premium TV channels (Discovery Channel, HBO, TNT, HGTV, CNN, Animal Planet, Adult Swim, Cartoon Network). Warner Bros. Discovery began trading on the NASDAQ stock exchange … Read more

AT&T’s WarnerMedia Unit and Discovery Are Close to Finalizing Their Blockbuster Merger

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Image Shown: Announced back in May 2021, the blockbuster merger of AT&T Inc’s WarnerMedia unit with Discovery Inc is expected to close in the second quarter of 2022. Image Source: AT&T Inc & Discovery Inc – May 2021 IR Presentation By Callum Turcan The blockbuster merger of WarnerMedia, currently a part of AT&T Inc (T), with Discovery Inc (DISCA) (DISCB) (DISCK) is getting closer to completion. On March 11, Discovery shareholders voted on whether to proceed with the transaction. AT&T does not need to secure shareholder approval through a vote to close the transaction. If everything goes as planned, WarnerMedia and Discovery are set to close their merger during the second quarter of 2022. Let’s dig more into the details … Read more

The Castle Trumps the Moat

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Please select the image below to download the report. Backtested results are hypothetical and do not represent actual trading. Actual results may differ from backtested information being presented. Tickerized for firms held in the Morningstar (MORN) Wide Moat ETF (MOAT) at the time of this writing.

Best Idea Disney Rebounding Nicely; Shares Look Cheap

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Image Shown: Shares of The Walt Disney Company strengthened February 9 in the wake of the media and entertainment giant’s latest earnings report. We include shares of DIS as an idea in the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio. By Callum Turcan On February 9, The Walt Disney Company (DIS) reported first-quarter fiscal 2022 earnings (period ended January 1, 2022) that smashed past both consensus top- and bottom-line estimates. A sharp rebound at its ‘Disney Parks, Experiences and Products’ unit impressed investors and shares of DIS are strengthening nicely in the wake of its latest earnings report. We are big fans of Disney and include shares of DIS as an idea in the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio. Our fair value estimate stands … Read more

Don’t Throw the Baby Out with the Bathwater

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Image: Erica Nicol Takeaways: Junk tech should continue to collapse, but the stylistic area of large cap growth and big cap tech should remain resilient. Moderately elevated levels of inflation coupled with interest rates hovering at all-time lows isn’t a terrible combination. In fact, it’s not bad at all. The markets are digesting the huge gains of the past few years so far in 2022, and the excesses in ARKK funds, crypto, SPACs, and meme stocks are being rid from the system. Our best ideas are “outperforming” the very benchmarks that are outperforming everyone else. The BIN portfolio is down 6.4% and the DGN portfolio is down 3.2% year to date. The SPY is down 7.8%, while the average investor … Read more