CSCO

The Best Years Are Ahead

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By Brian Nelson, CFA — The wind is at our backs. — The Federal Reserve, Treasury, and regulatory bodies of the U.S. may have no choice but to keep U.S. markets moving higher. The likelihood of the S&P 500 reaching 2,000 ever again seems remote, and I would not be surprised to see 5,000 on the S&P 500 before we see 2,500-3,000, if the latter may be in the cards. The S&P 500 is trading at ~4,100 at the time of this writing. — The high end of our fair value range on the S&P 500 remains just shy of 4,000, but I foresee a massive shift in long-term capital out of traditional bonds into equities this decade (and markets … Read more

VIDEO/TRANSCRIPT: 2021 Valuentum Exclusive Call: Inflation Is Good

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Valuentum’s President Brian Michael Nelson, CFA, explains why investors should not fear inflation, why government agencies such as the Fed and Treasury are prioritizing something other than price discovery, why the 10-year Treasury rate is a must-watch metric, and why Valuentum prefers the moaty constituents in large cap growth due to their net cash rich balance sheets, tremendous free cash flow generating potential, and secular growth tailwinds. Transcript: << Valuentum’s Best Ideas On behalf of the Valuentum team, I’d like to present to you our prepared remarks for the Valuentum Exclusive conference call for 2021. It is both an honor and a privilege to share our team’s work with you, and I personally am very grateful for your continued interest … Read more

There Is Milk At The Store

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This article first appeared in the September edition of the High Yield Dividend Newsletter. For more information about this publication, please see here. “Now this is not the end. It is not even the beginning of the end. But it is, perhaps, the end of the beginning.” — Winston Churchill By Brian Nelson, CFA Very few of us could have imagined that we’d witness the bull market that began on that fateful day in March 2009 that might very well mark a generational low. In 2009, major investment banks around the globe were struggling to survive, and the fallout in the mortgage markets left the banks holding paper that nobody wanted to own, let alone buy. The global financial system … Read more

Dividend Increases/Decreases for the Week Ending February 15

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Below we provide a list of firms that raised their dividends during the week ending February 15. The dividend reports of covered firms on this list will be updated shortly with the new information. To access our dividend reports use the ‘Symbol’ search box in our website header. Firms Raising Their Dividends This Week Acadian Timber (ACAZF): now CAD 0.29 per share quarterly dividend, was CAD 0.2825. Activision Blizzard (ATVI): now $0.37 per share annual dividend, was $0.34. Agnico Eagle (AEM): now $0.125 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.11. ALPS Alerian Energy Infrastructure ETF (ENFR): now $0.2589 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.1863. ALPS Alerian MLP ETF (AMLP): now $0.195 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.1913. Ares Capital (ARCC): now … Read more

Where Are the Safe Havens?

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“We believe that staying diversified as in holding a broad swath of ideas as in either the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio or Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio as the equity portion of one’s allocation makes a lot of sense in any environment…High yield dividend investing may become more and more popular in coming years as rates across the globe approach 0%, and the amount of negative-yielding debt proliferates.” — Brian Nelson, CFA By The Valuentum Team The Federal Reserve is weighing all its options as it assesses how to balance global economic weakness and strong performance in the US, pressure from the White House to aggressively cut rates, and a 30-year yield that puts the federal funds rate at the highest … Read more

VBI Ratings Not as Impressive As We Would Have Liked in 2022

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Image: How the VBI rating system has ranked equities so far this year. By Brian Nelson, CFA At Valuentum, we use the Valuentum Buying Index (VBI) to source ideas into diversified simulated newsletter portfolios, and the VBI may be most applicable to the simulated Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio, where we generally like to include ideas when they register a high VBI rating and remove them when they register a low VBI rating. We always use the VBI in a portfolio setting and never by itself. But what about the Valuentum Buying Index ratings, themselves? How did they “perform” during 2022 in one of the worst years for stock market investors in history? Well, not as spectacular as we would have … Read more

Dividend Increases/Decreases for the Week Ending February 12

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Below we provide a list of firms that raised/lowered their dividends during the week ending February 12. The dividend reports of covered firms on this list will be updated shortly with the new information. To access our dividend reports use the ‘Symbol’ search box in our website header. Firms Raising Their Dividends This Week AGL Resources, Inc. (GAS): now $0.53 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.51. Allstate (ALL): now $0.33 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.30. American International Group (AIG): now $0.32 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.28. Aubum National Bancorporation (AUBN): now $0.225 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.22. Bank of Botetourt (BORT): now $0.12 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.10. Canadian General Investments, Limited (CGRIF): now C$0.16 per … Read more

Reflecting on Recent Report Updates: Favorites in an Overheated Market and Other Themes

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It’s been some time since we’ve updated members on our recent fair value estimate updates. Let’s take a look at the opportunities that exist in some of our favorite portfolio holdings, as well as some key themes driving recent fair value estimate changes across our coverage universe. By Kris Rosemann and Brian Nelson, CFA The frothiness of the market has shown little regard for historical valuation norms, and the number of stocks moving to a 1 or 2 on the Valuentum Buying Index is growing as valuations become stretched across our coverage universe. For the first time in Valuentum’s history, there is now not one stock that registers a 9 or 10 (a top rating) on the Valuentum Buying Index. … Read more

Cisco Rallies Big Time!

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Image shown: Performance of the S&P 500 (SPY) since August 2017. As US equities continue their newly-found volatility, let’s take a look at some recent earnings reports and other developments around the markets. Cisco, the workhorse of both simulated newsletter portfolios, put up a fantastic report and upped its dividend. Berkshire continues to love Apple, and we maintain the view that the 10-year Treasury rate may be the greatest determinant of how well stocks perform in the coming decades. Airlines, garbage stocks, the “gas tax,” and more. By Kris Rosemann and Brian Nelson, CFA Do you know how happy it makes us to say that Cisco (CSCO) has been a staple of both the simulated Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio and … Read more

Valuentum’s Economic Roundtable: Trade War, Factors and Beyond

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Tickerized for holdings in the DIA. The markets rallied hard September 5 on relief that the US and China (FXI, MCHI) will go back to the negotiations table next month. This back-and-forth news cycle is enough to give any investor whiplash. Let’s catch up with the Valuentum Team on the latest developments, not only with the trade war but also with respect to factor investing, possible bubbles and beyond. Let’s kick things off with the following prompt from ForeignPolicy.com, released August 2: Trump Hired Robert Lighthizer to Win a Trade War. He Lost. Robert Lighthizer, the U.S. trade representative, agreed to serve in President Donald Trump’s cabinet in order to test his theory: that if the United States freed itself … Read more