COH

Valuentum’s 3 Breakthroughs in the Field of Finance and More

by

Valuentum’s President Brian Nelson pauses for a picture before speaking at the CFA Society of Houston in March 2017. By Valuentum Editorial Staff Let’s cover Valuentum’s 3 major breakthroughs in the field of finance. The first one is big and may challenge you to rethink everything you think you know about investing. 1. On a logical framework, Valuentum has debunked John C. Bogle’s landmark syllogism that has paved the way for the concept of index investing. Index investing has been built on a logical shortcoming, whether supported by evidence or not. We think it is important that the investment community know of this. Read (pdf): The “Luck” and “Randomness” of Index Funds (2018), Brian Nelson, CFA See video documentation: /FALLACY_of_Index_Funds To … Read more

Panera Eaten Up; SeaDrill’s End, Cisco’s Dividend Hike and Much More

by

Let’s go around the horn with recent investment-related news. Let’s say goodbye to Panera, talk about SeaDrill’s infamous demise, follow up on the Coach dividend saga, address Cisco’s payout strength and attractive valuation, update readers on Medtronic’s portfolio optimization initiatives, and try to reason through Tesla’s recent price surge.   By Kris Rosemann and Brian Nelson, CFA Goodbye Panera I think most of us were surprised a bit Wednesday morning, April 5, to see Panera Bread (PNRA) taken private by JAB Holding Company for $315 per share in cash. Shares of Panera started the year just above the $200 price tag, so the buyout is a nice payoff for investors that have been holding strong in the fast-casual concept. JAB … Read more

Coach’s Fundamentals Improving But We’re Growing Concerned About Dividend Amid Rumored M&A Talks

by

Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio holding Coach turned in a strong finish to calendar 2016, but we’re worried about rumored M&A activity. Let’s dig in. By Kris Rosemann We’ve been keeping a close eye on the speculative luxury goods ideas in the newsletter portfolios, and it hasn’t all been smooth sailing as Coach (COH) and Michael Kors (KORS) work to reposition their brands in the North American markets. Though we continue to see an opportunity for capital appreciation in shares of Coach (based on our fair value estimate of $41 per share), which is yielding ~3.7% at recent price levels, we’re growing concerned about the implications that M&A (if rumors come to fruition) will have on the long-term health of the … Read more

Around Retail: Aspirational Brands Battle Consumer Perception

by

Summary · After positive data reads in the months of October and November, things may finally be looking up for retail spending, but the impact of discounting looms large for many in the space. There are pockets of weakness and strength. · Aspirational and luxury goods manufacturers and retailers are not only subject to the pressures of the promotional retail environment, but also are subject to additional outside forces such as tourism and brand perception. While not dead, mall traffic has been challenging. · Whether it is next-generation wearable technology, a refined online presence, a reduction in markdown allowances, or an enhanced shopping experience, luxury goods companies continue to invest for sustainable growth. Fossil and Richemont have been caught by … Read more

Tough Month – My Goodness

by

By Brian Nelson, CFA The market rallied hard this month and seemed to leave a lot of the Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio ideas behind. I’m not going to sugarcoat the results: The Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio disappointed this month, and for that I’m sorry.  A lot of it may be “explainable” in light of what happened on Election Day 2016, however. I think a lot of investors have shifted capital from the stronger dividend payers to the more-speculative ones in hopes that a new, pro-business Trump administration will be their saving grace. We hope so, but Trump cannot be President forever, and dividend growth investors should consider a long-term perspective, in my opinion, especially when it comes to compounding payouts … Read more

Retail Weakness: Blame the Election?

by

Image Source: DonkeyHotey By Kris Rosemann The 2016 election cycle has been one characterized by unprecedented amounts of criticism and accusations, of both the personal and political variety, and it may be true that the perceived political environment from the view of the general public has not been in such a state of uncertainty for some time. Let’s not get into the details of who called whom what in last night’s Presidential debate, but some parents were reportedly not allowing their children to watch the debate out of fear that their values or outlook on democracy could be skewed. But could the uncertainty surrounding the election actually be enough to impact consumer activity at retail outlets and restaurants? Some are … Read more

Brand Image Taking Center Stage in Aspirational Goods

by

By Kris Rosemann Coach (COH), Michael Kors (KORS), Fossil (FOSL), and Ralph Lauren (RL) all beat consensus estimates in the calendar second quarter of 2016, but the way the market reacted to the beats varied drastically despite none of the above firms necessarily issuing outright optimistic expectations. The weak outlooks have weighed on shares of Coach and Michael Kors, but shares of Fossil and Ralph Lauren have received an updraft in hopes of turnaround strategies and sales-decline stemming plans beginning to take hold.  Ongoing weakness in retail traffic across the US, and a decrease in tourism in major domestic cities have played an important role in the growing issues for luxury brands. In an attempt to combat traffic pressures, many … Read more

Fundamental Strength To Outweigh Short-Term Volatility

by

Image Source: texasfeel Union Pacific Battling Declining Volumes We continue to be fans of Union Pacific (UNP) on a fundamental level, and we fully expect the company to be gearing up for material improvement further down the line as the end-markets it serves stabilize. Union Pacific reported weak quarterly results April 21, as operating revenue fell 14% from the year-ago period. The sharp drop was driven by an 8% decline in volume, as measured by total revenue carloads. Coal volume dropped 34%, industrial products volume decreased 10%, and agricultural and intermodal volumes fell in the low to mid-single digit range. Flat chemicals volume and automotive volume growth of 7% were no match for offsetting the other declines, and average revenue … Read more

Coach: Still On Path to Recovery?

by

By Brian Nelson, CFA Why would we include Coach (COH) in the portfolio of the Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio? This was a question we were asked quite frequently when shares had dipped into the mid-$20s, but we don’t hear it too much now with the company’s shares breaking north of $40 each. The company was added to the Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio at $37.55 per share in September 2014, but the handbag maker has been paying a rather hefty yield since then, adding up to a respectable total return for the unique exposure within the context of a dividend growth strategy. The position in Coach had given us heartburn in the past, “Coach…Ouch! (April 2015),” and we weren’t exactly pleased … Read more

Best Idea Michael Kors Up 20%+ — Yawn?

by

“A significantly “undervalued stock” that is dropping like a rock is a huge red flag, and the Valuentum system offers a methodological overlay to incorporate the very valuable information contained in  share prices.” – Brian Nelson, CFA What a day for Michael Kors (KORS)! At the time of this writing February 2, shares of the aspirational brand are soaring 20%+. Yes, it is a holding in the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio, “Valuentum’s Best Ideas Portfolio,” and yes, we added to the position in Michael Kors November 5, 2015, “Email Transaction Alerts.” The email transaction alert, which included some profit-taking in Altria and additions to the positions in Buffalo Wild Wings and Michael Kors, can be downloaded here. Prior to the … Read more