CMP

PotashCorp’s 2014 Earnings Will Decline Due to Pricing Pressure

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On January 30, PotashCorp (POT) reported fourth-quarter and full-year 2013 results. The fertilizer giant faced challenging market conditions during much of the year, and PotashCorp CEO Bill Doyle was quick to note that “this past quarter was a difficult one. Pricing headwinds – most notably in potash – weighed on (its) performance, although there were signs as the quarter came to a close that the uncertainty in global markets was beginning to abate. (Its) focus remain(s) on those things (it) can influence, and (it) took important steps to enhance (its) competitive position across all three nutrients and prepare the company to deliver better performance.” Unfortunately, the most important “thing” is something that PotashCorp cannot control: pricing. Competitive pressures and a … Read more

Three Reasons Why Dividend Growth Investors Are Quite Savvy

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A version of this article appeared on our website on October 1, 2013. There are many different approaches to investing, but we think dividend growth investors are quite savvy, especially when they combine a rigorous dividend growth process in the form of the Valuentum Dividend Cushion ratio with the valuation rigors behind the Valuentum Buying Index. Let’s examine the three reasons why we think dividend growth investors are a smart group in the age of ultra-low interest rates. #1. Fool Me Once, Shame on You…Fool Me Twice, Shame on Me Today’s dividend growth crowd has seen enough. First, they witnessed the dot-com bubble (1997-2000), a period in stock market history where firms’ stock prices soared in some cases as a result … Read more

Monsanto Reports Fourth Quarter Results and Moves into Data

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Agricultural biotechnology giant Monsanto (click ticker for report: ) posted slightly disappointing fourth quarter results Wednesday morning. For the full year, revenue increased 8.7% year-over-year to $14.8 billion, while quarterly revenue rose 4.9% year-over-year to $2.2 billion–a touch short of consensus estimates. Earnings per share for the full year advanced 21% year-over-year to $4.60, with the firm’s quarterly loss increasing by five cents to $0.47 per share–worse than consensus expectations. Free cash flow during fiscal year 2013 was $2 billion, equal to 13.2% of total revenue. The fourth quarter isn’t much of a revenue driver or profit driver for Monsanto, so we find it more prudent to take a closer look at full-year results. Image Source: Monsanto The firm’s ‘Corn … Read more

The Potash Situation Gets More Interesting

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Late last month, Russian producer Uralkali backed out of a highly profitable and rational potash cartel arrangement, creating a free-for-all in the global potash market. As a result, shares of North American potash producers such as Potash (click ticker for report: ), Mosaic (click ticker for report: ), Agrium (click ticker for report: ), and Intrepid Potash (click ticker for report: ) have come under significant pressure as a result of the prospects for significant lower economic returns. Then mining giant BHP (click ticker for report: ) confirmed it will invest in its Jansen potash project, which will add even more potash supply to the market. A look at industry bellwether Potash’s shares below reveals the recent difficult performance experienced by the … Read more

Uralkali Backs Out of Belarusian Potash Company; Industry to Change

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Early this morning, Russian fertilizer Uralkali announced it will leave the Belarusian Potash Company in order to grab market share. CEO Vladislav Baumgertner asserted that BPC partner Belaruskali had been making potash exports outside of the pre-arranged agreement, rendering the BPC useless. Until now, the potash industry had been a relatively stable cartel allowing industry participants to generate robust amounts of free cash flow as spot prices rested well above the cost of production. On a conference call following the announcement, Baumgertner mentioned that the price of potash could fall by over $100/tonne as Uralkali will boost production nearly 25% and look to steal market share. Uralkali is the largest single potash producer in the world and likely has the … Read more

Potash Corp Struggles with Weak Nutrient Prices

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Nutrient fertilizer producer Potash Corp (click ticker for report: ) posted weak second quarter results Thursday morning. Revenue declined 11% year-over-year to $2.1 billion, worse than consensus estimates had anticipated. Earnings per share, adjusted for one-time items, declined 26% year-over-year to $0.73 per share, which was also worse than consensus expectations. Free cash flow remained terrific at $848 million, equal to 40% of revenue. Image Source: POT 2Q 2013 Investor Slides Potash’s issue during the second quarter was the material decline in potash (the mineral) gross margins. Prices declined significantly, falling 18% year-over-year to $356 per tonne as robust North American farmer demand (up 28% year-over-year) was more than offset by lower realized prices shipped via Canpotex. Price is paramount … Read more

The Valuentum Dividend100 Publication; A Must-Have For Any Income Investor

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Dividend investors literally have thousands of income stocks to choose from. So what are they to do, and where can they go for the most trusted forward-looking opinions on dividend growth and safety? That’s the question we seek to answer with our ValuentumDividend100 publication. In this document, we showcase the top 100 high-quality, dividend growth gems within our coverage universe. Whether you’re looking to build a portfolio consisting of high-yielding, dividend-growers or simply seeking to augment it with a few income gems, the Valuentum Dividend100 is an essential resource for any income investor. We outline some of the key components of our Dividend100 publication below, and explain how you can get the most from each of one Sign Up for … Read more

Dividend Increases/Decreases for the Week Ending February 3

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Below we provide a list of firms that raised/lowered their dividends during the week ending February 3. The dividend reports of covered firms on this list will be updated shortly with the new information. To access our dividend reports use the ‘Symbol’ search box in our website header. Firms Raising Their Dividends This Week Allegion (ALLE): now $0.16 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.12. Amanda Hoffler Properties (AHH): now $0.19 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.18. Apartment Investment (AIV): now $0.36 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.33. Apollo Global Management (APO): now $0.45 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.35. AvalonBay Communities (AVB): now $1.42 per share quarterly dividend, was $1.35. Avista Corporation (AVA): now $0.3575 per share quarterly dividend, was … Read more

VBI Ratings Not as Impressive As We Would Have Liked in 2022

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Image: How the VBI rating system has ranked equities so far this year. By Brian Nelson, CFA At Valuentum, we use the Valuentum Buying Index (VBI) to source ideas into diversified simulated newsletter portfolios, and the VBI may be most applicable to the simulated Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio, where we generally like to include ideas when they register a high VBI rating and remove them when they register a low VBI rating. We always use the VBI in a portfolio setting and never by itself. But what about the Valuentum Buying Index ratings, themselves? How did they “perform” during 2022 in one of the worst years for stock market investors in history? Well, not as spectacular as we would have … Read more

Nelson: The 16 Most Important Steps To Understand The Stock Market

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A previous version of this article appeared on our website July 21, 2013. Refreshed and updated throughout, as of July 2018. By Brian Nelson, CFA After earning my MBA at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business and training stock and credit analysts from large organizations over the past decade or so, I have heard just about every question (though I admit I am still surprised by many things and remain a very humble student of the markets). I’ve also spent years perfecting the discounted cash flow process for large research organizations such as Morningstar and studied under one of the most famed aggressive growth investors of all time, Richard Driehaus. My knowledge runs the gamut from value through … Read more