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ICYMI — Video: Will Hasty Policy Facilitate the Next Leg Down, or Do We Have It Coming Anyway?

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President of Investment Research and award-winning author of Value Trap: Theory of Universal Valuation Brian Nelson explains how US policymakers are stuck between a rock and a hard place, and how the market may be factoring in too high of a probability of a return to normalcy before 2021. This and more in the latest video report. Summary Make sure you review Value Trap on Amazon. Do so here. We think those that bought equities near the bottom of this swoon may be looking to take profits at present levels. The market is currently reflecting an 80%-85% probability of a return to normalcy before 2021, which we believe is too high at this time. Our main concern is that government … Read more

Surveying Valuentum Buying Index Performance in the Restaurant Space

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The stock-selection methodology, the Valuentum Buying Index, is as simple as an efficacious stock-selection methodology can be. However, that doesn’t mean that the Valuentum Buying Index is simple. The Valuentum Buying Index considers the rigors of a discounted cash-flow process, the considerations of relative valuation techniques, and the transparency of pricing information via market indicators. Yet despite its straightforwardness, the Valuentum Buying Index casts a discerning eye on the equities it monitors. The Valuentum Buying Index does not make a ‘call’ on every company. It only views a 9 or a 10 on the measure to be actionable on the long side, and it only views a 1 or 2 on the measure to be actionable on the short side. … Read more

VBI Ratings Not as Impressive As We Would Have Liked in 2022

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Image: How the VBI rating system has ranked equities so far this year. By Brian Nelson, CFA At Valuentum, we use the Valuentum Buying Index (VBI) to source ideas into diversified simulated newsletter portfolios, and the VBI may be most applicable to the simulated Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio, where we generally like to include ideas when they register a high VBI rating and remove them when they register a low VBI rating. We always use the VBI in a portfolio setting and never by itself. But what about the Valuentum Buying Index ratings, themselves? How did they “perform” during 2022 in one of the worst years for stock market investors in history? Well, not as spectacular as we would have … Read more

Nelson on Bogle, Part I

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“The kind of commentary that makes broad generalizations about expectations of future returns is exactly why people are so eager to get into passive investment strategies. Since the 1920s, it seems as though the individual investor has assumed the stock market was rigged or impossible for average Joes to figure out, but instead of the “I’ll get it next time” mentality that was present leading to the crash of ’29, individual investors have “evolved” to the point that now the idea is if you can’t beat the market, just buy the whole thing. Leaders like Bogle continue to take tremendous shortcuts in explaining forecasts, leaving the average investor like a student trying to copy math homework off a peer that … Read more

The Dividend Cushion Ratio: Unadjusted Is Less Subjective, Adjusted Is More Subjective

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  Image Source: Mike Lawrence Question: I’m a subscriber. I’m looking at your Dividend Report for Enterprise Product Partners (EPD). It says your Valuentum Adjusted Dividend Cushion ratio for EPD is 1.8 (a ratio that includes future expected proceeds from capital raising endeavors in the coming years), but several lines below it says the Unadjusted Dividend Cushion ratio, which is your regular normal ratio (a ratio that does not include future expected proceeds from capital raising endeavors in the coming years), is 0.22. Please explain the difference between the two ratios, and what is considered a good ratio for the Unadjusted Dividend Cushion ratio, what is an excellent score, what is neutral and what is poor? Also, how much relative importance should … Read more

How to Think About Corporate Tax Reform

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Top-Weighted Visa Leaps to Mid-$160s, More Earnings Reports

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Top-Weighted Visa Leaps to Mid-$160s, More Reports Image: Visa (V) has been the top-weighted idea in the Best Ideas Newsletter for as long as we can remember. In December 2017, when we migrated to weighting ranges for ideas in the newsletter portfolio, the company’s “weight” was 8.6%. The image above shows its performance relative to the S&P 500 (SPY) since then. Source (pdf). — In alphabetical order by ticker symbol: GOOG, LLY, GE, GM, IR, LL, MA, MCD, MRK, PFE, TXRH, WDC — Alphabet (GOOG, GOOGL): Shares of Alphabet, the parent of Google, reported first-quarter performance April 29 that may have revealed weakness in the revenue story at the search giant. The miss was rather large on the top line during the quarter, but … Read more

2,350-2,750 on the S&P? Could the Coronavirus Catalyze a Financial Crisis?

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Image: We think a rather modest sell-off in the market to the target range of 2,350-2,750 on the S&P 500 is rather reasonable in the wake of one of the biggest economic shocks since the Global Financial Crisis. The chart above shows how far markets have advanced since 2011, and an adjustment lower to the target range of 2,350-2,750 is rather modest in such a context and would only bring markets to late 2018 levels (note red box as the target range). The range reflects ~16x S&P 500 12-month forward earnings estimates, as of February 14, adjusted down 10% due to COVID-19. When companies like Visa talk about a couple percentage points taken off of growth rates, one knows that … Read more

Dividend Increases/Decreases for the Week of May 17

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Below we provide a list of firms that raised their dividends during the week ending May 17. The dividend reports of covered firms on this list will be updated shortly with the new information. To access our dividend reports use the ‘Symbol’ search box in our website header. Firms Raising Their Dividends This Week                          A2A S.p.A. (AEMMY): now $0.3362 per share annual dividend, was $0.3202. Advanced Drainage Systems (WMS): now $0.16 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.14. AIXTRON SE (AIIXY): now $0.576 per share annual dividend, was $0.452. AMMO, Inc. 8.75% PFD SER A (POWWP): now $0.559 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.553. Artisan Partners Asset Management (APAM): now $0.61 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.34. Assicurazioni Generali … Read more