CBL

ICYMI: Let’s Play Devil’s Advocate: What’s the Bear Case for Realty Income?

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By Brian Nelson, CFA We like Realty Income Corp. (O) a lot, but it’s not hard to see that the REIT could potentially have all the makings of a black swan. For one, the stock is loved by almost everyone–REIT investors, income investors, and dividend growth investors alike. Many are simply enamored by its monthly dividend, which it has raised nearly 120 times since it was listed on the NYSE in 1994. Over its 54-year history, the REIT has paid 632 consecutive monthly dividends, too. There’s a ton of things to like about Realty Income, but for this note, let’s build and examine the bear case, one that can be broken into three pillars: 1) its retail exposure, 2) its … Read more

Why Are the Dividends of REITs So Risky?

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By Brian Nelson, CFA Not all REIT dividends are safe. Many REITs remain capital-market dependent, and some office REITs, retail REITs, and healthcare REITs may be difficult places to generate dependable long-term income in the coming decades, in our view. Office REIT SL Green (SLG) recently cut its payout 13% on December 5, 2022, while another office REIT Vornado Realty Trust (VNO) cut its dividend 29% on January 18, 2023. These are just two of the latest high-profile REIT dividend cuts, and there may be more to come. Contrary to popular opinion, the REIT sector has not been a great source of dependable, reliable income, particularly during the COVID-19 crisis. Five REITs cut their dividends in 2019: Medalist Diversified REIT … Read more

Dividend Increases/Decreases for the Week of July 8

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Below we provide a list of firms that raised their dividends during the week ending July 8. The dividend reports of covered firms on this list will be updated shortly with the new information. To access our dividend reports use the ‘Symbol’ search box in our website header. Firms Raising Their Dividends This Week                BP Prudhoe Bay Royalty Trust (BPT): now $1.405 per share quarterly dividend, was $1.087. CBL Properties (CBL): now $0.25 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.075. CF Bankshares (CFBK): now $0.05 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.04.      Crescent Point Energy (CPG): now CAD 0.08 per share quarterly dividend, was CAD 0.07. Dr. Reddy’s (RDY): now INR 30.00 per share annual dividend, was INR 25.00. Enterprise Products … Read more

Mall Retail Armageddon?

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We think investors should be extremely cautious if they are interested in any mall retailers. Mall REITs are starting to feel some of the pain, too. By Brian Nelson, CFA Our latest channel checks at the malls foreshadowed what eventually turned into a terrible showing during the first quarter for the department stores such as J.C. Penney, Kohl’s and Nordstrom, but the apparel names and other niche shops are feeling the pain, too. It is becoming eerie when visiting the malls these days. In some of the locations we’re visiting, hardly anyone is there! Generation Z may not pick up the slack from the millennial generation, and it is showing up in the numbers big time. Here’s a run down … Read more

Latest Channel Checks at Malls…Scary

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We know malls come and go, and location is everything, but our latest visit to a few malls in the Chicagoland area leave us scratching our heads in a big way. One was eerily empty. By Brian Nelson, CFA A small sample set is never one to extrapolate, but our latest checks of malls in the northwest Chicagoland area came up a little surprising. We’re not sounding the alarm bells just yet, but we think some caution is in order for the largest mall REITs, including Tanger Factory (SKT), Macerich (MAC), Simon Property (SPG) and Taubman (TCO). Something just wasn’t quite right on our latest visit, and we attribute it primarily to failing anchor department stores, namely Carson Pirie Scott … Read more

Dividend Increases/Decreases for the Week Ending November 24

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Below we provide a list of firms that raised their dividends during the week ending November 24. The dividend reports of covered firms on this list will be updated shortly with the new information. To access our dividend reports use the ‘Symbol’ search box in our website header. Firms Raising Their Dividends This Week Adams Diversified Equity Fund (ADX): now $0.08 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.05. American National Bankshares (AMNB): now $0.25 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.24. Becton, Dickinson (BDX): now $0.75 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.73. Canadian Banc Corp (CNDCF): now CAD 0.1135 per share monthly dividend, was CAD 0.10883. Core-Mark Holding (CORE): now $0.10 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.09. Exchange Bank (EXSR): now $0.90 … Read more

Prepared Remarks From Nelson Exclusive Conference Call June 30

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Read President of Investment Research Brian Nelson’s prepared remarks for the yearly roundup conference call, held for Nelson Exclusive members. If you would like to subscribe to the Nelson Exclusive publication, please learn more about the publication here. The Nelson Exclusive publication does not reflect real performance. Performance is hypothetical and does not represent actual trading. Ladies and Gentlemen, Thank you very much for joining us on the first conference call for members of the Nelson Exclusive publication. The first year of the publication has surely been an exciting one for all involved. When I first wrote the introductory letter of the Nelson Exclusive on July 1, 2016, we were well-aware the market had laid down the gauntlet for this publication. … Read more

Valuentum’s 3 Breakthroughs in the Field of Finance and More

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Valuentum’s President Brian Nelson pauses for a picture before speaking at the CFA Society of Houston in March 2017. By Valuentum Editorial Staff Let’s cover Valuentum’s 3 major breakthroughs in the field of finance. The first one is big and may challenge you to rethink everything you think you know about investing. 1. On a logical framework, Valuentum has debunked John C. Bogle’s landmark syllogism that has paved the way for the concept of index investing. Index investing has been built on a logical shortcoming, whether supported by evidence or not. We think it is important that the investment community know of this. Read (pdf): The “Luck” and “Randomness” of Index Funds (2018), Brian Nelson, CFA See video documentation: /FALLACY_of_Index_Funds To … Read more

Podcast: REITs, Interest Rates and Beyond!

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The Valuentum analyst team talks REITs and the reasons why REIT investors should pay close attention to changes in Treasury rates. Various secular themes across the data center, healthcare, office, and mall REITs are discussed, and an explanation for the sector’s systematically poor raw, unadjusted Dividend Cushion ratios is covered. ~8 mins. Tickerized for various ETFs and the holdings in the VNQ. Brian Nelson, CFA: In September, REITs were officially broken out from the financial sector to their own sector of the S&P 500 — some 30 or so stocks with $600 billion in market capitalization, or about 3% of the S&P 500. Could this change have marked a peak in performance for equity and mortgage REIT stocks? Are investors … Read more

Dividend Increases for the Week Ending November 14

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Below we provide a list of firms that raised their dividends during the week ending November 14. The dividend reports of covered firms on this list will be updated shortly with the new information. To access our dividend reports use the ‘Symbol’ search box in our website header. Firms Raising Their Dividends This Week Automatic Data Processing (ADP): now $0.49 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.48. CBL & Associates Properties (CBL): now $0.265 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.245. Dow Chemical (DOW): now $0.42 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.37. General Growth Properties (GGP): now $0.17 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.16. Griffon (GFF): now $0.04 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.03. Group 1 Automotive (GPI): now $0.19 per share quarterly … Read more