BWLD

Strategy Versus Tactics in the Best Ideas Newsletter Portfolio

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Image Source: Anna & Michal We made a few tactical tweaks to the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio during 2017. Let’s walk through them, and how we’re out to win the war, not win every battle. By Brian Nelson, CFA I’m not going to reference The Art of War written by Chinese military strategist Sun Tzu some time in the 5th century, nor am I going to use any quotes from the military treatise (I think it’s too well-traveled of a topic), but I do believe the approach to portfolio management is much like that of a general on a path to win the war. Now, don’t get me confused: I’m not saying that portfolio management is actually like being in … Read more

Buffalo Wild Wings Should Go Private and Hasbro Should Buy Mattel…But at the Right Price

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Image Source: Hasbro There is a lot happening across the M&A landscape as of late. Buffalo Wild Wings has reportedly received a go-private offer, while speculation is swirling that Hasbro is looking to gobble up Mattel. We like the prospects of both scenarios. However, price will always matter. Buffalo Wild Wings should hold out for the very best offer, while Hasbro should be very careful not to overpay for assets that may be past their prime. By Brian Nelson, CFA Buffalo Wild Wings (BWLD) has long been a favorite of ours. You have to read, “3 Reasons Why Buffalo Wild Wings Is a Long-Term Winner” from July 2015. Certainly the beer, wings and sports establishment is facing a host of … Read more

How Have Our “Best Ideas” Performed During 2017?

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The top-weighted ideas are getting the job done, while we avoided one of the biggest missteps in all of 2017. We’ve had better years, but 2017 was still a great one. Key takeaways: 1) “The top-weighted ideas in the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio, Apple and Visa, performed wonderfully from the release of the December 2016 newsletter through November 13, 2017, averaging more than an increase of 45%, excluding dividends, versus a mid-teens percentage advance for the S&P 500, excluding dividends.” 2) “The weighting concept within a portfolio context is an important one because, as a portfolio manager adds more and more ideas to the portfolio, the next best idea is just that–the next best one–so the probability of diluting portfolio … Read more

Earnings Snapshot: Cracker Barrel’s Hidden 5%+ Dividend Yield

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Cracker Barrel is holding its share-price uptrend nicely. The company is one of our favorite restaurants thanks in part to its differentiated niche and country store concept. Special dividend payouts make it a hidden income gem, in our view. By Brian Nelson, CFA Here’s what we wrote last May, “Cracker Barrel Hits the Trifecta!:” Cracker Barrel’s (CBRL) store-within-a-restaurant concept is one of the best revenue-generators per square foot around, and it is run by a management team that knows the importance of the dividend to income investors. We continue to believe it is a great fit for the Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio and an often overlooked one in light of its preponderance of special dividends that often fly under the … Read more

Best Ideas, Dividend Growth Newsletter Alerts and More

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Image Shown: The stock price performance of Boeing. Let’s take a look at recent news from newsletter portfolio holdings. We’re also parting with a “trade” we never should have made in the first place, and we’re letting go of one of our favorite restaurants in light of deteriorating technicals. This and more… By Brian Nelson, CFA Aside from predicting the ongoing inflation of the current equity market bubble in the US so far in 2017, we also thought crude oil prices (USO) would continue their recovery. Unfortunately, this hasn’t exactly worked out, and US crude oil prices have now entered a “bear market,” now falling below $43 per barrel. Are we saying that we know where crude oil prices are … Read more

Labor and the Economic Cycle

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As we arguably near the “peak” in the business cycle, labor is starting to demand more, a dynamic that we believe is emblematic of the period of aging economic expansion. Let’s have a look at what’s happening in the fight for higher wages. By Brian Nelson, CFA Each business cycle is different in both magnitude and duration, but there are some common qualities that define where an economy might be within the cycle. First, it has been more than 8 years since the March 2009 stock-market panic bottom, a period that witnessed firms such as Lehman Brothers, Bear Stearns, and AIG (AIG) flounder. The unemployment rate peaked at 10% during that difficult time. Since then, the US economy has emerged … Read more

Valuentum’s 3 Breakthroughs in the Field of Finance and More

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Valuentum’s President Brian Nelson pauses for a picture before speaking at the CFA Society of Houston in March 2017. By Valuentum Editorial Staff Let’s cover Valuentum’s 3 major breakthroughs in the field of finance. The first one is big and may challenge you to rethink everything you think you know about investing. 1. On a logical framework, Valuentum has debunked John C. Bogle’s landmark syllogism that has paved the way for the concept of index investing. Index investing has been built on a logical shortcoming, whether supported by evidence or not. We think it is important that the investment community know of this. Read (pdf): The “Luck” and “Randomness” of Index Funds (2018), Brian Nelson, CFA See video documentation: /FALLACY_of_Index_Funds To … Read more

Buffalo Wild Wings: It’s Time to Start Delivering?

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Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio holding Buffalo Wild Wings is battling a challenging operating environment. Management is searching for ways to shore up performance, but some shareholders are getting antsy. Is a BWLD-WING deal in the cards?  By Kris Rosemann It’s no secret that the restaurant industry has struggled of late, “Restaurant Traffic – What’s Going On?” “Examining Same-Store Sales in the Restaurant Industry.” Best Ideas Newsletter holding Buffalo Wild Wings (BWLD) was not spared the pain in 2016, as same-store sales fell more than 2% at both company-owned and franchised restaurants from 2015 levels, though management is optimistic for 2017 after a positive read on the measure through the first several weeks of the year, “Best Ideas Roundup: Visa, Facebook, … Read more

Examining Same-Store Sales in the Restaurant Industry

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Key Takeaways September 2016 marked the fourth consecutive month of same-store restaurant sales declines, but the pressure is not indiscriminant. Millennials account for nearly a quarter of restaurant spending and are anticipated to account for 40% of restaurant purchases by 2020. Their preferences are becoming important considerations for the strategic planning of restaurants. Fast food restaurants with exposure to the coffee and breakfast segments appear to be faring better than those with limited or no exposure to the segments. Experiential dining is becoming increasingly important in the full-service arena as the gap between grocery prices and food away from home prices has widened of late.     By Kris Rosemann The broader restaurant sector (BITE) has been under pressure as of … Read more

Retail Weakness: Blame the Election?

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Image Source: DonkeyHotey By Kris Rosemann The 2016 election cycle has been one characterized by unprecedented amounts of criticism and accusations, of both the personal and political variety, and it may be true that the perceived political environment from the view of the general public has not been in such a state of uncertainty for some time. Let’s not get into the details of who called whom what in last night’s Presidential debate, but some parents were reportedly not allowing their children to watch the debate out of fear that their values or outlook on democracy could be skewed. But could the uncertainty surrounding the election actually be enough to impact consumer activity at retail outlets and restaurants? Some are … Read more