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The Bull Case for Airline Stocks?

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Image Source: BriYYZ Warren Buffett has famously said that airline stocks are horrible long-term investments, but his vast portfolio now owns a number of airlines. What’s the bull case for owning these capital-intensive, cyclical and often boom-and-bust stocks? By Brian Nelson, CFA Last year, the Oracle of Omaha Warren Buffett shocked the investment world when his company Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A, BRK.B) disclosed that it held stakes in American Airlines (AAL), United Continental (UAL), Delta (DAL) and Southwest (LUV). For a die-hard, economic-moat investor, thinking about taking a stake in an airline seems crazy. After all, Buffett himself used to joke that he had an 1-800 number that he could call anytime he had the urge to buy an airline stock … Read more

Valuentum’s 3 Breakthroughs in the Field of Finance and More

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Valuentum’s President Brian Nelson pauses for a picture before speaking at the CFA Society of Houston in March 2017. By Valuentum Editorial Staff Let’s cover Valuentum’s 3 major breakthroughs in the field of finance. The first one is big and may challenge you to rethink everything you think you know about investing. 1. On a logical framework, Valuentum has debunked John C. Bogle’s landmark syllogism that has paved the way for the concept of index investing. Index investing has been built on a logical shortcoming, whether supported by evidence or not. We think it is important that the investment community know of this. Read (pdf): The “Luck” and “Randomness” of Index Funds (2018), Brian Nelson, CFA See video documentation: /FALLACY_of_Index_Funds To … Read more

United’s Passenger Debacle An Immaterial Investment Consideration

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Image Source: Business Insider  The major airlines in the US have done a fantastic job capitalizing on the ongoing upswing in air travel demand, but their economically-sensitive business models remain the most operationally-leveraged out of any industry group in our coverage. This should be investors’ biggest concern: A downturn in the global economy and competitive pricing pressures are far greater worries for investors than United’s recent passenger debacle. However, as with many news-oriented items (as opposed to materially-relevant, investment-related items), United’s misstep is making headlines in a big way. Though the footage in this article is appalling, investors in airline stocks have much more important things to worry about, in our view. By Brian Nelson, CFA The airline industry has … Read more

Warren Buffett Is Back Into Airlines, Should You?

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Warren Buffett has changed his mind about airline stocks… In this 10-minute podcast, the Valuentum analyst team talks all about the hazards of the airline business model from substantial operating leverage to the risks of volatile jet fuel costs to bankruptcies and beyond. The team also highlights the long-term passenger growth prospects of the sector, and recent consolidation that has brewed a more optimistic tone from industry observers. To view Valuentum’s updated YouTube page, please see here. Ticckerized for airline-related equities around the globe. Brian Nelson, CFA: The worst sort of business is one that grows rapidly requires significant capital to engender the growth and then earns little or no money. Think airlines. There’s a durable competitive advantage that has proven … Read more

Big Labor Topples Republic Airways; More Trouble for Other Airlines?

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Image Source: Boeing The worst sort of business is one that grows rapidly, requires significant capital to engender the growth, and then earns little or no money. Think airlines. Here a durable competitive advantage has proven elusive ever since the days of the Wright Brothers. Indeed, if a farsighted capitalist had been present at Kitty Hawk, he would have done his successors a huge favor by shooting Orville down. — Warren Buffett, annual letter to Berkshire Hathaway shareholders, 2008. The airline industry has just turned in its second consecutive year of record profits, but the harmony may soon be over for the industry as it could be on the verge of its next big problem. If major airlines are not … Read more

No Fly Zone: Airlines’ Economic Profitability Still Unproven

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Image Source: Amy McTigue We’ve said it before, and we’ll say it again: the airline industry is not well-suited for long-term investors. The industry that we’re talking about is the airline industry and includes companies such as United Continental (UAL) and JetBlue (JBLU), not the aerospace industry and its constituents such as Boeing (BA) and Precision Castparts (PCP), which are involved in aircraft-making and have fantastic business models. More on commercial aerospace here >> Today, we’re reiterating our view that most airline stocks should be viewed as nothing more than boom-or-bust, speculative vehicles. Perhaps the biggest issue with airlines is that the factors that drive their revenue and costs are largely out of their control. In other words, an airline … Read more

Commercial Aerospace Flying High

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Valuentum’s President Brian Nelson talks about the resiliency of the commercial aircraft making business and the massive backlogs that offer a nice tailwind to the supply chain. Source of Images: Boeing (BA), Randy Tinseth (20-year Current Market Outlook, July 2014). If you cannot see the video, please click here. Aerospace Suppliers: AIR, AIRI, AL, ATRO, COL, HEI, HXL, ISSC, PCP, SPR, TATT, TDY, TXT Airlines – Major: AAL, ALK, DAL, JBLU, LUV, SAVE, UAL

Dividend Increases for the Week Ending January 23

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Below we provide a list of firms that raised their dividends during the week ending January 23. The dividend reports of covered firms on this list will be updated shortly with the new information. To access our dividend reports use the ‘Symbol’ search box in our website header. Firms Raising Their Dividends This Week AGCO (AGCO): now $0.12 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.11. Alaska Air (ALK): now $0.20 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.125. Alexanders (ALX): now $3.50 per share quarterly dividend, was $3.25. Allete (ALE): now $0.505 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.49. Bar Harbor Bankshares (BHB): now $0.245 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.235. Cardinal Financial (CFNL): now $0.11 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.10. Collectors Universe … Read more

$45 Oil Prices!?!? There Is Never a Sense of Urgency When One Is Prepared

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Image Source: Macrotrends The bull market in energy (XLE) has lasted for the better part of a decade. Ever since the turn of the new century, energy perma-bulls have made the case that “black gold” (USO) should continue its ever-upward price advance thanks to ongoing demand from emerging and developing economies coupled with reduced inventories and areas of supply. We’re seeing this thesis challenged right at this moment. In deciding not to cut crude oil output in the face of oversupply and falling prices, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), for the lack of a better phrase, is now essentially engaged in a price war with producers in the US that are using breakthrough technology to produce oil … Read more

The Correction: The IMF, Oil, Department Stores, and the Fed

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  We’ve been heeding our own words of caution for the past several weeks now, as we’ve trimmed some of the cyclical exposure in both the Best Ideas portfolio and Dividend Growth portfolio. We also added protection to both portfolios several percentage points ago in the form of put option contracts on the S&P 500. These instruments aren’t for everybody, and the put options can still expire worthless if we don’t take profits. The above chart of the SPDR S&P 500 (SPY) shows the ongoing market correction, and we expect to continue to provide daily market commentary in the event that things get considerably worse. Our high-level prognostication is that the broader equity markets will be lower than they are … Read more