Digging Into May Retail Sales: Were They Actually Bad?
May retail sales were down 0.2% from April, but up 5% from May 2011. We think investors should remain focused on the big picture.
WMT
Dollar General Shines Through Challenging Times
The dollar store giant reported another strong quarter and could issue 25 million new shares in a secondary offering. We think the shares are fairly valued.
Walmart’s Fiscal First-Quarter Results Show US Performance Improving
We liked Walmart’s first-quarter results and don’t think the firm’s alleged bribery scandal at its Mexican division will materially impact the trajectory of its earnings outlook or dividend.
March Retail Sales Speak to Strength in the US Economy
Retail sales numbers issued Thursday by the International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC), which tracks 22 retailers, reinforced what we’ve been saying for some time: the US economy continues to grow and the pace of expansion may even be accelerating, even in the face of domestic political uncertainty, concerns about a slowdown in Chinese growth, and a recession in the Eurozone. According to ICSC data, retail sales rose 4.1% for March, with strong growth across all segments. We think the strong March retail sales performance and improving employment trends bode well for the US economy as we head into the second quarter. Though we liked the underlying March performance, we’re not making any changes to our fair value estimates for … Read more
Placing Green Mountain’s Fair Value Under Review
There are stocks with bull and bear arguments, and then there’s Green Mountain Coffee Roasters (GMCR). A lot of shorts recently became interested in the stock when hedge-fund manager David Einhorn released a presentation detailing his bearish argument against the firm. The company’s shares went into a large slide, losing over 50% of its value from that time. That was, until it reported a first quarter earnings beat, fueled by a divestiture of its “Filterfresh” brand and Green Mountain rallied back to $70 per share. Oh, and then of course, Starbucks (SBUX) recently announced the creation of its own single-serve espresso machine, which is an adjacent product of the Keurig single-serve coffee machine, sending Green Mountain’s shares tumbling back towards … Read more
Walmart’s Fiscal Fourth-Quarter Results and Outlook Disappoint; US Comparable Sales Performance Continues to Improve
Walmart (WMT) reported disappointing fiscal fourth-quarter results Tuesday that showed improving domestic traffic trends but modest bottom-line expansion. Though the firm’s outlook fell a bit lower than what we were expecting, we don’t expect to make a material change to our fair value estimate for the world’s largest retailer. Consolidated net sales for its fiscal fourth quarter increased 5.8% from the same period a year ago, with 4.5 percentage points of the increase coming from organic means. Walmart International led the charge in sales growth, advancing 13.1% in the period (8.5% organic), while revenue at Sam’s Club expanded 6.8% (5.4% excluding fuel). Both of these increases, however, lagged the full-year growth pace in the respective segments, suggesting decelerating fourth-quarter revenue … Read more
Wal-Mart’s Third-Quarter Earnings Decline, But US Comps Reverse; Low-End Consumers Increase Spending
Wal-Mart (WMT) announced mixed third-quarter fiscal 2012 results Tuesday that came in roughly in line with the mid-point of its previously-issued earnings guidance. Though we were disappointed by weak traffic trends in the quarter, we’re holding the line with our fair value estimate for Wal-Mart. Net sales increased 8.2% (6.8% constant currency) from the same period a year ago, as comparable sales in the US and Sam’s Club jumped 1.3% and 5.7%, respectively – the latter excluding fuel. This compares to a negative US comp and 2.4% for Sam’s Club in last year’s quarter. The major driver behind the positive reversal in US comps (they had been negative for the previous nine quarters) was an increase in the average ticket, … Read more
Wal-Mart Raises Full-Year Guidance, Sam’s Club Drives Results
Wal-Mart (WMT) issued fiscal 2012 second-quarter results Tuesday that showed resiliency in the face of a difficult consumer spending environment. Net sales advanced 5.5% from the same period a year ago, while diluted earnings per share rose over 12% from last year’s quarter. Total US comps were flat during the period, as continued strong performance at Sam’s Club largely offset declines at Wal-Mart US, which, despite lower comps, posted its best quarterly performance since the third quarter of fiscal 2010. Impressively, Wal-Mart International increased net sales by over 16% in the quarter, a nice showing. The retailer narrowed and raised its full-year guidance to the range of $4.41 to $4.51 per share, which implies about 8% earnings growth at the … Read more
8 Announcements and Top Research You May Have Missed
8 Announcements. This article was sent to members via email March 27. By Brian Nelson, CFA Hi everyone, Brian here. Trust you are doing great! Here are eight announcements I want you to be aware of: Everything we do is for our members. We’re very proud of the outperformance of the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio, that we’ve never had a dividend cut in the Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio, that our high-yield ideas are holding up very well, and the success rates of the Exclusive capital-appreciation ideas and short-idea considerations are running at approximately 80%. We’re proud to be your research partner. The odds of a Fed rate cut are going up as yield-curve inversion continues to threaten. The risks are more behavioral in … Read more