Exclusive Analysis for the Discerning Investor
Traditional free cash flow generation has been strong for the oil majors through the first nine months of the year, but their balance sheets remain bloated with net debt. A few haven’t covered their cash dividends with free cash flow generation through the first nine months of 2017. Oil & Gas – Major: BP, COP, CVX, PTR, RDS, TOT, XOM
Image Shown: The performance of the VanEck Vectors Oil Refiners ETF (CRAK) since its launch in August 2015. We’ve witnessed our fair share of fits and starts from energy resource pricing during the past few years, but could the global crude markets finally be rebalancing? Let’s talk about our thoughts on whether the outlook for energy resource pricing is improving in a sustainable way. By Kris Rosemann and Brian Nelson, CFA It may have taken longer than we initially anticipated, but crude oil prices (USO) appear to be on the verge of making a sustained recovery, though we always caution that sentiment can change on a dime, especially in the speculation-heavy commodity price markets. If you recall, we thought the … Read more
Valuentum’s President Brian Nelson pauses for a picture before speaking at the CFA Society of Houston in March 2017. By Valuentum Editorial Staff Let’s cover Valuentum’s 3 major breakthroughs in the field of finance. The first one is big and may challenge you to rethink everything you think you know about investing. 1. On a logical framework, Valuentum has debunked John C. Bogle’s landmark syllogism that has paved the way for the concept of index investing. Index investing has been built on a logical shortcoming, whether supported by evidence or not. We think it is important that the investment community know of this. Read (pdf): The “Luck” and “Randomness” of Index Funds (2018), Brian Nelson, CFA See video documentation: /FALLACY_of_Index_Funds To … Read more
The Valuentum analyst team digs into recent developments in the oil and gas space and highlights one of the most leveraged ways to play rising crude oil prices. ~12 mins. If you cannot view the podcast below, please select the link here or view the transcript that follows. Tickerized for Valuentum’s oil and gas coverage universe. Chris Araos: Hello, this is Christopher Araos at Valuentum Securities, and today with us is Brian Nelson and Kris Rosemann. Today, we are going to talk about the outlook on oil and gas. Brian Nelson, CFA: Thanks Mr. Araos. I think to kind of set the stage for this conversation, we probably need to bridge the gap between what was truly the depths of … Read more
Image Source: GE, Baker Hughes Newsletter portfolio holding General Electric has agreed to merge its Oil & Gas business with Baker Hughes. By Kris Rosemann General Electric (GE) is betting big on energy these days, even as orders continue to decline in its ‘Oil & Gas’ segment as a result of continued pressure on energy resource pricing (USO, NGAS). The industrial conglomerate on October 31 agreed to merge the business with energy services giant Baker Hughes (BHI) to create a powerhouse in the sector with estimated $32 billion in annual revenue. Although we’re very cautious on the deal based on the current operating environment and uncertainty in the energy markets–GE is expecting operating income in its Oil & Gas business … Read more
By Kris Rosemann On September 28, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) reached an agreement to cut crude oil production levels for the first time since 2008. The cartel reportedly agreed to limit production of member nations to a range of 32.5-33 million barrels per day (bpd) while leaders met at the International Energy Forum in Algiers, Algeria. As would be expected following such news, the price of crude oil has bounced, bringing market sentiment surrounding energy-related stocks higher along with it. The proposed production could be a reduction of up to 750,000 bpd from OPEC production levels in the month of August, but how the group of nations will reach such a production cut has yet to … Read more
We’ve been cautious on the oil and gas markets (XLE, AMLP) for some time, and that includes our October move closer to market neutral on the sector, but we’re still underweight the group. We’ve been saying that crude oil prices are more likely to hit the $20 per barrel level than move significantly higher, and we maintain our view that they may never again return to the $100 per barrel, a level many have grown accustomed to. After all, why should they? Unfortunately, the fallout continues to punish traditional “buy and hold” investors who have been trained to ignore most “news” and may still be holding on the belief of the fallacy of mean reversion, something that we believe cannot … Read more
The Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio has generated significant outperformance in part from avoiding many of the landmines across the energy sector during the past many months. We’ve done equally well in our calls in the Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio, and we’re very proud of raising the issue of the importance of looking at non-GAAP free cash flow across pipeline entities. We believe that such a measure is the best one to assess the timing of free cash flows as they are generated, an important consideration for investors of all types, and not properly addressed in measures of distributable cash flow or a company’s dividend or distribution. Why are we now inching ever so slightly back into energy? 1. The market … Read more
Just how bad are we drowning in crude oil? Yesterday’s inventory report showed the largest weekly supply increase in over 30 years, since 1982. That’s how bad. Yet, knowing that crude oil prices are driven by supply and demand, pundits continue to be optimistic, perhaps overly so, about the timing of the recovery in the price of the black liquid (USO). Let’s first start with OPEC, and the Secretary-General Abdullah al-Badri, who said Tuesday that oil prices have bottomed as he “warned of a risk of a future price spike to $200 a barrel.” With inventories as they are and OPEC not ceding market share to US shale-based plays, we think the Secretary-General is drinking a bit too much Kool-aid. … Read more
Image Source: Macrotrends The bull market in energy (XLE) has lasted for the better part of a decade. Ever since the turn of the new century, energy perma-bulls have made the case that “black gold” (USO) should continue its ever-upward price advance thanks to ongoing demand from emerging and developing economies coupled with reduced inventories and areas of supply. We’re seeing this thesis challenged right at this moment. In deciding not to cut crude oil output in the face of oversupply and falling prices, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), for the lack of a better phrase, is now essentially engaged in a price war with producers in the US that are using breakthrough technology to produce oil … Read more