VIAC

Thinking Slow: 3 Research Blind Spots That Changed the Investment World

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Dear members: — Daniel Kahneman in his text Thinking, Fast and Slow (1) divided the human psyche into two systems. The first system is instinctive and emotional, often set on autopilot, while the second system is slower and more logical, requiring a calculating conscious. Many of the maxims the investment world takes for granted today suffer from conclusions that are made rapidly, almost without thinking, driven by our first system, creating what I call research blind spots. — In World War II, Allied bombing raids were suffering from very high casualty rates. It was estimated that for those pilots that were flying at the beginning of the war, only about 10% survived, a terrible loss rate. Bombing was crucial to the Allied … Read more

Our Reports on Stocks in the Telecom Services Industry

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Image Source: Mike Mozart Structure of the Telecommunications Industry The telecom industry is characterized by rapid technological change, intense competition and pricing pressures. The mature wireline segment remains under attack from cable/wireless products. Mobile technology enhancements such as the iPhone continue to attract new wireless subscribers in less saturated markets, but this has not lessened the intensity of competition. Industry constituents continue to pursue acquisitions in order to reduce bloated cost structures and achieve synergies. Average revenue per subscriber and churn rates should be monitored closely. We’re neutral on the structure of the group. Dividend Yield: Estimated on a forward-looking annualized basis. VBI: The Valuentum Buying Index, a timeliness indicator that overlays a price-to-fair-value estimate consideration. Fair Value Estimate: Derived by … Read more

AT&T and Warner Bros. Discovery Go Their Separate Ways

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Image Shown: AT&T Inc is spending heavily to grow its 5G wireless network while expanding the reach of its broadband footprint. Image Source: AT&T Inc – March 2022 Analyst & Investor Day Event Presentation By Callum Turcan On April 8, AT&T Inc (T) closed the merger of the WarnerMedia business with Discovery to create a powerhouse in the media and entertainment industry after then-Discovery shareholders voted to approve the deal on March 11. The new entity, Warner Bros. Discovery Inc (WBD), is home to various streaming services (HBO Max, discovery+, CNN+) along with linear and premium TV channels (Discovery Channel, HBO, TNT, HGTV, CNN, Animal Planet, Adult Swim, Cartoon Network). Warner Bros. Discovery began trading on the NASDAQ stock exchange … Read more

AT&T’s WarnerMedia Unit and Discovery Are Close to Finalizing Their Blockbuster Merger

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Image Shown: Announced back in May 2021, the blockbuster merger of AT&T Inc’s WarnerMedia unit with Discovery Inc is expected to close in the second quarter of 2022. Image Source: AT&T Inc & Discovery Inc – May 2021 IR Presentation By Callum Turcan The blockbuster merger of WarnerMedia, currently a part of AT&T Inc (T), with Discovery Inc (DISCA) (DISCB) (DISCK) is getting closer to completion. On March 11, Discovery shareholders voted on whether to proceed with the transaction. AT&T does not need to secure shareholder approval through a vote to close the transaction. If everything goes as planned, WarnerMedia and Discovery are set to close their merger during the second quarter of 2022. Let’s dig more into the details … Read more

Best Idea Disney Rebounding Nicely; Shares Look Cheap

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Image Shown: Shares of The Walt Disney Company strengthened February 9 in the wake of the media and entertainment giant’s latest earnings report. We include shares of DIS as an idea in the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio. By Callum Turcan On February 9, The Walt Disney Company (DIS) reported first-quarter fiscal 2022 earnings (period ended January 1, 2022) that smashed past both consensus top- and bottom-line estimates. A sharp rebound at its ‘Disney Parks, Experiences and Products’ unit impressed investors and shares of DIS are strengthening nicely in the wake of its latest earnings report. We are big fans of Disney and include shares of DIS as an idea in the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio. Our fair value estimate stands … Read more

Don’t Throw the Baby Out with the Bathwater

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Image: Erica Nicol Takeaways: Junk tech should continue to collapse, but the stylistic area of large cap growth and big cap tech should remain resilient. Moderately elevated levels of inflation coupled with interest rates hovering at all-time lows isn’t a terrible combination. In fact, it’s not bad at all. The markets are digesting the huge gains of the past few years so far in 2022, and the excesses in ARKK funds, crypto, SPACs, and meme stocks are being rid from the system. Our best ideas are “outperforming” the very benchmarks that are outperforming everyone else. The BIN portfolio is down 6.4% and the DGN portfolio is down 3.2% year to date. The SPY is down 7.8%, while the average investor … Read more

We Remain Bullish on Disney’s Capital Appreciation Upside Potential

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Image Shown: Shares of The Walt Disney Company have shifted lower over the past month, though are still bullish on its capital appreciation upside. Our fair value estimate sits at $192 per share of Disney. By Callum Turcan The Walt Disney Company (DIS) reported fourth-quarter earnings for fiscal 2021 (period ended October 2, 2021) on November 10 that missed consensus top- and bottom-line estimates. While the company’s ‘Disney Parks, Experiences and Products’ segment (includes its theme parks and resorts operations) staged an impressive turnaround last fiscal quarter, its ‘Disney Media and Entertainment Distribution’ segment (includes its video streaming businesses) grew at a slower pace than expected. Shares of Disney sold off after its latest earnings report, though we remain confident … Read more

Hard Work and the Trust That Binds

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Image Source: Terry Johnson By Brian Nelson, CFA We’ll have our traditional Valuentum Weekly email coming out on Sunday, and I’m excited to say our team is putting the finishing touches on our technology industry update, so we’ll have a whole bunch of fresh reports for you to look at Sunday evening/Monday morning. It’s easy to forget how much we’ve been through the past two years. Often, we forget how helpful the warning that markets were going to crash was the weekend before they did on February 22, 2020, “Is a Stock Market Crash Coming? – Coronavirus Update and P/E Ratios,” how we thought dollar-cost-averaging made sense at the bottom in March 2020, and how we went “all-in” in April … Read more

ICYMI — Video: Exclusive 2020 — Furthering the Financial Discipline

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ICYMI — Video: Exclusive 2020 — Furthering the Financial Discipline — — In this 40+ minute video jam-packed with must-watch content, Valuentum’s President Brian Nelson talks about the Theory of Universal Valuation and how his work is furthering the financial discipline. Learn the pitfalls of factor investing and modern portfolio theory and how the efficient markets hypothesis holds little substance in the wake of COVID-19. He’ll talk about which companies Valuentum likes and why, and which areas he’s avoiding. This and more in Valuentum’s 2020 Exclusive conference call.   Note: This video was originally published August 2, 2020.    To watch the video >>   The Theory of Universal Valuation —– Valuentum members have access to our 16-page stock reports, … Read more

Crown Castle Is a Great Income Growth Idea

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Image Shown: Crown Castle International Corp has an expansive portfolio of shared wireless infrastructure assets that covers every major market in the US. Image Source: Crown Castle International Corp – First Quarter of 2021 IR Earnings Presentation By Callum Turcan Crown Castle International Corp (CCI) is a high-quality real estate investment trust (‘REIT’) that focuses on shared wireless infrastructure assets. Its expansive portfolio includes 40,000+ towers, ~80,000 route miles of fiber, and ~80,000 small cell nodes. According to Crown Castle, the REIT has a presence in every major US market. As of this writing, shares of CCI yield ~2.9%. Over the long haul, Crown Castle aims to grow its dividend per share and adjusted funds from operations (‘AFFO’) per share … Read more