TSLA

Video: North Korea, Indexing, and ETFs

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President of Investment Research Brian Nelson talks about the non-zero probability of nuclear war, lofty equity market valuations, the impact of ultra-low interest rates, the Bitcoin phenomenon, the importance of paying attention to financial adviser fees, as well as the pitfalls when it comes to assigning styles to ETFs. Running time: ~11 minutes. Aerospace & Defense – Prime: BA, FLIR, GD, LLL, LMT, NOC, RTN Banks – Regional and Asset Management: AB, AINV, AMP, ARCC, BCH, BEN, BGCP, BKU, BLK, BMO, BNS, CM, FSIC, ISBC, KKR, LAZ, LM, MAIN, MTB, NABZY, NYB, OCN, PBCT, PFG, PSEC, RY, SBNY, SBSI, STT, TCAP, TD, VLY, WBK  Banks & Money Centers: AXP, BAC, BBT, BK, C, DFS, FITB, GS, HBC, JPM, KEY, MS, NTRS, PNC, … Read more

Bellwethers Drive Dow Jones Past 23,450 – Cheers!

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Image: The stock market is partying like it’s 1999 or 1929, or 1987. You pick. Cheers! Creative Commons, Ruth Hartnup. The market is reacting positively to calendar third-quarter earnings reports during the trading session October 24, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DIA) has now surpassed 23,450+. The rally in US equities ensues. Stocks mentioned in this note: General Motors (GM), McDonald’s (MCD), and Caterpillar (CAT). By Brian Nelson, CFA General Motors Delivers!!! We couldn’t be more excited for holders of newsletter portfolio idea General Motors. The auto giant released a solid third-quarter report October 24 that has sent shares rallying to ~$46 each. If you remember, GM’s stock was languishing in the mid-$30s when we penned our September piece, … Read more

General Motors Is Off to the Races!

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Image Shown: GM’s shares are breaking out. GM’s stock has been out of favor for years, but with an attractive price-to-earnings ratio and healthy dividend yield, is the market finally coming around to the company’s tremendous potential? By Brian Nelson, CFA General Motors’ (GM) share-price performance has been an enigma. The automaker’s price-to-earnings multiple is less than half and its dividend yield is more than double that of the average S&P 500 company, and we thought it was only a matter of time that the company’s share price would break out. There can only be so much time before market anomalies are closed, and GM was a big one. We wrote the following September 7, “Why Won’t GM Break Out … Read more

Why Won’t GM Break Out Already?

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What is it going to take for General Motors to catapult to new heights? By Brian Nelson, CFA August was a busy month for the auto makers. Following General Motors’ (GM) fantastic second-quarter results in late July, we thought shares of the auto giant would have surged higher, but they have been stuck in neutral, despite what we consider to be a very, very attractive valuation and an equally attractive dividend yield. Read why we think “General Motors May Offer an Incredible Opportunity (July 2017).” Where Tesla (TSLA) and Ferrari (RACE) are trading at rather high valuation multiples, poor GM can’t even get a double-digit multiple on current-year earnings, despite what we consider to be a solid balance sheet. What … Read more

General Motors May Offer an Incredible Opportunity

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We continue to believe GM’s valuation and dividend profile may be too good to pass up. At the very least, it should receive a multiple on current-year earnings like that of the airlines, another cyclical boom-or-bust industry that has traditionally been associated with bankruptcy. By Brian Nelson, CFA On July 25, General Motors (GM) showed why we include shares in both the Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio and Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio when it reported strong second-quarter results. There are three things that you must know about GM’s stock. One, GM’s annual dividend of $1.52 per share means the corporate is yielding ~4.2% at present levels, or roughly double that of the average S&P 500 company. For a corporate, this level of … Read more

Systemic Risk in These Frothy Times

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Let’s talk about index investing, market valuations, and mention how a few ideas in the Best Ideas Newsletter are doing. By Brian Nelson, CFA For most investors during most parts of the economic cycle, index investing (VOO), or holding a broad basket of stocks that approximate the returns of a large market index may make a lot of sense. I have always said this from the very beginning: Individual stock selection is not for everyone. What may not be well-known, however, is that index funds have experienced multi-year periods of both outperformance and underperformance relative to actively-managed funds since the dawning of the very first index fund many decades ago. I’m worried that some investors today may not have this … Read more

I CARE

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Image Shown: The S&P 500 from early 2009 through today, June 15, 2017. By Brian Nelson, CFA There it is — the upward-sloping chart of the S&P 500 (SPY) since the March 2009 panic bottom. What a sight to see… The past 8 years have marked an incredible bull market in US equities and one for the record books in many instances. The drivers behind the multi-year rally have been many — ultra-low interest rates and their magnifying impact on equity valuations, strong earnings growth from the doldrums of the Financial Crisis, and the proliferation of passive and dividend-growth strategies de-emphasizing the price-versus-value equation. “Money,” it seems, is chasing stocks at any price, and most of the trading on exchanges … Read more

Valuentum’s 3 Breakthroughs in the Field of Finance and More

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Valuentum’s President Brian Nelson pauses for a picture before speaking at the CFA Society of Houston in March 2017. By Valuentum Editorial Staff Let’s cover Valuentum’s 3 major breakthroughs in the field of finance. The first one is big and may challenge you to rethink everything you think you know about investing. 1. On a logical framework, Valuentum has debunked John C. Bogle’s landmark syllogism that has paved the way for the concept of index investing. Index investing has been built on a logical shortcoming, whether supported by evidence or not. We think it is important that the investment community know of this. Read (pdf): The “Luck” and “Randomness” of Index Funds (2018), Brian Nelson, CFA See video documentation: /FALLACY_of_Index_Funds To … Read more

Panera Eaten Up; SeaDrill’s End, Cisco’s Dividend Hike and Much More

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Let’s go around the horn with recent investment-related news. Let’s say goodbye to Panera, talk about SeaDrill’s infamous demise, follow up on the Coach dividend saga, address Cisco’s payout strength and attractive valuation, update readers on Medtronic’s portfolio optimization initiatives, and try to reason through Tesla’s recent price surge.   By Kris Rosemann and Brian Nelson, CFA Goodbye Panera I think most of us were surprised a bit Wednesday morning, April 5, to see Panera Bread (PNRA) taken private by JAB Holding Company for $315 per share in cash. Shares of Panera started the year just above the $200 price tag, so the buyout is a nice payoff for investors that have been holding strong in the fast-casual concept. JAB … Read more

Who’s Driving Who: The Future of the Automakers

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Image Source: HimmelrichPR Let’s dig into some recent developments surrounding the auto market, and how technological and strategic innovation could reshape the future of the space. By Kris Rosemann There have been a number of interesting developments related to the auto space recently, from Theresa May and the UK government triggering Brexit to pressure on the US used vehicle and auto lending markets to the seemingly inevitable proliferation of autonomous vehicles. Such progressions should not come as a surprise; in fact, we outlined some potential concerns with the long-term health of the US auto market in July 2016, “Sharp Curves Ahead for US Auto Market?” The cyclical US auto market may be plateauing after multiple years of tremendous sales levels … Read more