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In The News: 10-Year Treasury Yield, Wage Pressure in Restaurants, Cannabis Volatility

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Let’s take a look at some of the hottest topics around the markets. By Kris Rosemann Financial stocks (XLF) rallied during the trading session September 19 as the 10-year US Treasury yield crossed the 3% threshold for the first time since late May 2018 and investors anticipated rising net interest margins for banks. Strong levels of consumer confidence are likely helping the banking sector as well, but we’re watching closely as the Fed continues on its hawkish path with two more rate hikes expected in 2018 after completing seven hikes since December 2015. The potential for an inverted yield curve cannot be ruled out, but some observers are expecting a continued rise in the 10-year Treasury yield through the end … Read more

Oracle Gobbling Up Its Shares; Cracker Barrel Hit By Weak Traffic

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Image Source: Mike Mozart Simulated Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio ideas Oracle and Cracker Barrel both issued less than compelling forward-looking guidance in their most recent fiscal quarter reports. Oracle continues to throw off robust levels of free cash flow that is being used to fund significant levels of share buybacks, but Cracker Barrel may be forced to stop serving up special dividends that have become common in recent years. By Kris Rosemann Oracle Throwing off Free Cash Flow, Gobbling Up Shares Simulated Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio idea Oracle’s (ORCL) fiscal first quarter report, released September 17, was met with a mixed reaction as management’s guidance for its fiscal second quarter left a bit to be desired. Total revenue grew 2% … Read more

Valuentum’s Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC) Distribution

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The weighted average cost of capital is one of the most subjective measures in corporate finance, but it is also one of the most important ones. “The most important item over time in valuation is obviously interest rates…If interest rates are destined to be at low levels…It makes any stream of earnings from investments worth more money. The bogey is always what government bonds yield….Any investment is worth all the cash you’re going to get out between now and judgment day discounted back. The discounting back is affected by whether you choose interests rates like those of Japan or interest rates like those we had in 1982…When we had 15 percent short-term rates in 1982, it was silly to pay … Read more

Restaurant Traffic Down, Chipotle Still a Favorite Idea

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Image Source: Chipotle (page 89 of 160) In late April of this year, we added Chipotle to the simulated Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio. By Brian Nelson, CFA We like Chipotle (CMG) for three primary reasons: 1) in CEO Brian Niccol, the company has a new bold visionary at the helm and he is hiring top talent to fill gaps, 2) buyouts in the restaurant space will only offer support for shares as the fast-casual segment remains a key focus area for private equity (here and here), and 3) Chipotle has been plagued with so many health issues (“foodborne illnesses”) in the past that, even with the recent bounce in shares, the market’s expectations are still rather low. Though our fair value … Read more

Study: Valuentum’s Best Ideas Newsletter Portfolio

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To read the study, please click on the image to download the pdf document (pdf).

ICYMI: Valuentum’s Improved Stock and ETF Web Pages

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Valuentum has rolled out improved stock and ETF web pages on its website valuentum.com/. Now, subscribers can access key proprietary information on the stock and ETF web pages in addition to the customary stock and ETF reports. Dear reader, We have some exciting news that we can’t wait to share with you! At valuentum.com/, we have rolled out new stock and ETF pages that conveniently include a variety of our proprietary metrics from the Dividend Cushion ratio to the Economic Castle rating and beyond! There’s even mouseover functionality so you can learn about how we define the key metrics across our stock-selection and dividend growth methodologies. You’ll still have access to the stock and dividend reports on the landing pages, … Read more

The “Luck” and “Randomness” of Index Funds

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Please select the image below to download the document. Image shown, page 1 of 14. Tickerized for Valuentum’s coverage universe.

Video: Quants! You’re NOT Measuring VALUE and Nelson’s Theory of Universal Value

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President of Investment Research Brian Nelson defines the concept of universal value and shows how quantitative statistical methods are inextricably linked to those of fundamental, financial, business-model related analysis. Value does not exist in respective process vacuums! Value is universal. Find out why. Running time: ~10 minutes.  Tickerized for Valuentum’s stock and ETF coverage universe. Transcript Hi this is Brian Nelson from Valuentum Securities, and this is the tenth edition of a series that I call “Off the Cuff,” where I get in front of the camera and I talk for ten minutes. This is what we have to talk about today. We have to talk about this concept: The Theory of Universal Value. Value does not exist in vacuums … Read more

Earnings Snapshot: Cracker Barrel’s Hidden 5%+ Dividend Yield

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Cracker Barrel is holding its share-price uptrend nicely. The company is one of our favorite restaurants thanks in part to its differentiated niche and country store concept. Special dividend payouts make it a hidden income gem, in our view. By Brian Nelson, CFA Here’s what we wrote last May, “Cracker Barrel Hits the Trifecta!:” Cracker Barrel’s (CBRL) store-within-a-restaurant concept is one of the best revenue-generators per square foot around, and it is run by a management team that knows the importance of the dividend to income investors. We continue to believe it is a great fit for the Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio and an often overlooked one in light of its preponderance of special dividends that often fly under the … Read more

Valuentum’s 3 Breakthroughs in the Field of Finance and More

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Valuentum’s President Brian Nelson pauses for a picture before speaking at the CFA Society of Houston in March 2017. By Valuentum Editorial Staff Let’s cover Valuentum’s 3 major breakthroughs in the field of finance. The first one is big and may challenge you to rethink everything you think you know about investing. 1. On a logical framework, Valuentum has debunked John C. Bogle’s landmark syllogism that has paved the way for the concept of index investing. Index investing has been built on a logical shortcoming, whether supported by evidence or not. We think it is important that the investment community know of this. Read (pdf): The “Luck” and “Randomness” of Index Funds (2018), Brian Nelson, CFA See video documentation: /FALLACY_of_Index_Funds To … Read more