RDS

Look Out Below: Crude Oil Prices Continue to Tumble

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West Texas Intermediate crude oil (Dec’14) fell under $75 per barrel today, now almost $30 lower than its 52-week high, reaching the lowest level since September 2010. Brent crude also fell to a four-year low. We view the move in crude as a net-negative for the economy and S&P 500 earnings, even though many from transportation to retail will benefit from lower energy costs. The energy sector accounts for roughly 10% of the S&P 500 (SPY), and ExxonMobil (XOM) and Chevron (CVX) top the index’s top 10 holdings.  We think falling crude oil prices are more a reflection of expectations for declining global economic activity, which in itself, signals that trouble is on the horizon. North American shale production continues … Read more

Valuentum Economic Castleâ„¢ Rating Update

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Read: Keeping the Horse Before the Cart: Valuentum’s Economic Castle™ Rating The Economic Castle Focuses on the Magnitude of Economic Value Creation The Valuentum Economic Castle™ rating is an enhancement of the competitive advantage framework (commonly known as economic moat analysis) that has become widespread and ubiquitous within the investing world. Whereas an economic moat framework evaluates a firm on the basis of the sustainability and durability of its competitive advantages, Valuentum’s Economic Castle™ rating evaluates a firm on the basis of the firm’s future economic profit spread (return on invested capital less its weighted average cost of capital). The companies with the strongest Valuentum Economic Castle™ ratings are poised to generate the most economic value for shareholders in the … Read more

Why We’re Keeping Chevron As Our Favorite Dividend Growth Idea in Big Oil

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Our dividend growth thesis on Chevron (CVX) has been rather simple at the core: For investors seeking dividend growth exposure to Big Oil, Chevron hands-down has the most financial flexibility of all the majors – irrespective of what happens to energy prices – and therefore, we think the firm is extremely well-positioned among its peer group to have the best dividend growth prospects through the course of the multi-year (and inevitably volatile) energy price cycle. A look at a breakdown among the net cash positions across the energy majors in the third quarter of last year, for example, shows Chevron with a net-neutral net cash position, while its peers BP (BP), Exxon (XOM), ConocoPhillips (COP) and Shell (RDS) all revealed … Read more

Dividend Increases for the Week Ending May 2

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Below we provide a list of firms that raised their dividends during the week ending May 2. The dividend reports of covered firms on this list will be updated shortly with the new information. To access our dividend reports use the ‘Symbol’ search box in our website header. Firms Raising Their Dividends This Week Airgas (ARG): now $0.55 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.48. American Campus Communities (ACC): now $0.38 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.36. Ameriprise Financial (AMP): now $0.58 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.52. BB&T Corporation (BBT): now $0.24 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.23. Chevron (CVX): now $1.07 per share quarterly dividend, was $1.00. CorEnergy Infrastructure Trust (CORR): now $0.129 per share quarterly distribution, was $0.125 … Read more

Chevron’s Balance Sheet Slowly Losing Luster

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Energy giant Chevron (CVX) posted lackluster fourth-quarter results Friday. Though we were largely expecting the results (given the preannouncement earlier this month), we were quite disappointed with the performance of the company’s balance sheet, as the firm has now swung from a net cash position to a net debt position. Part of the reason we hold Chevron in the portfolio of the Dividend Growth Newsletter originates from its pristine balance sheet, which we view as a necessity for us to hold onto a commodity-producing entity through the course of the economic cycle (especially for dividend growth). However, we can’t really say Chevron’s balance sheet is pristine anymore, as its $16.2 billion in cash at the end of 2013 now falls … Read more

Chevron Releases Fourth Quarter Update

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The fundamentals of a commodity-producing business are cutthroat. Not only are the prices of the relevant commodity extremely volatile, but a focus on the cost structure associated with extracting and producing the commodity is first and foremost on executives’ minds. Excessive financial leverage (a hefty debt load) doesn’t mix well with the uncertainty of a commodity-producing company’s operations, increasing the risk of financial distress during the depths of the economic and/or commodity pricing cycle. The latter consideration is why we prefer Chevron (CVX) as one of our top dividend growth ideas in the energy sector; unlike its major energy peers, the company has negligible net debt, offering significant financial flexibility to scoop up undervalued assets or to advance its lofty dividend. … Read more

Surveying 3Q Results at the Energy Majors

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Performance was far from rosy across the majors during the calendar third quarter. BP’s (BP) performance showed a 26% fall in underlying replacement cost profit, Exxon Mobil’s (XOM) third-quarter results revealed an 18% decline in earnings, Chevron’s (CVX) quarterly earnings dropped nearly 6% during the period, and Shell’s (RDS.A; RDS.B) third-quarter profit (on a current cost of supplies basis) slid 31% from the same period a year ago. Only ConocoPhillips’ third-quarter results (COP) showed adjusted earnings expansion during the quarter (about 7%). Source: Valuentum The investment landscape in the ‘Major – Oil & Gas’ space remains mixed, in our view. We liked ConocoPhillips third-quarter results, but its hefty capital investment plan and net debt position certainly don’t speak of equity … Read more

Exxon Misses, ConocoPhillips Raises Production, and Shell Writes Down North American Shale Assets

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As Valuentum members are aware, we think the oil majors each have their own respective strengths and weaknesses. Exxon Mobil (XOM) has consistently earned the best economic returns (ROCE) among peers, but its stock price is rich, trading at the high end of our fair value estimate range (at the time of this writing). ConocoPhillips (COP) continues to raise its production forecasts and is the second-best value-creator (ROCE) in the group. However, Chevron (CVX) has the strongest balance sheet among peers (it has the only net cash position), and by extension, is better-positioned to raise its dividend during the troughs of future energy-price cycles. Meanwhile, BP (BP) continues to deal with the aftermath of its well-publicized 2010 oil spill in … Read more

The Valuentum Dividend100 Publication; A Must-Have For Any Income Investor

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Dividend investors literally have thousands of income stocks to choose from. So what are they to do, and where can they go for the most trusted forward-looking opinions on dividend growth and safety? That’s the question we seek to answer with our ValuentumDividend100 publication. In this document, we showcase the top 100 high-quality, dividend growth gems within our coverage universe. Whether you’re looking to build a portfolio consisting of high-yielding, dividend-growers or simply seeking to augment it with a few income gems, the Valuentum Dividend100 is an essential resource for any income investor. We outline some of the key components of our Dividend100 publication below, and explain how you can get the most from each of one Sign Up for … Read more

ICYMI — Video: Will Hasty Policy Facilitate the Next Leg Down, or Do We Have It Coming Anyway?

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President of Investment Research and award-winning author of Value Trap: Theory of Universal Valuation Brian Nelson explains how US policymakers are stuck between a rock and a hard place, and how the market may be factoring in too high of a probability of a return to normalcy before 2021. This and more in the latest video report. Summary Make sure you review Value Trap on Amazon. Do so here. We think those that bought equities near the bottom of this swoon may be looking to take profits at present levels. The market is currently reflecting an 80%-85% probability of a return to normalcy before 2021, which we believe is too high at this time. Our main concern is that government … Read more