PYPL
American Express Carries Meaningful Credit Risk
Image Source: American Express Company – First Quarter of 2020 Earnings IR Presentation By Callum Turcan At Valuentum, we are very bullish on the growth trajectory of high-quality payment processing, payment solutions, and financial technology firms. That’s why we include PayPal Holdings Inc (PYPL) and Visa Inc (V) as top-weighted holdings in our Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio. However, please note that what makes those firms appealing is the limited or lack of exposure to credit risk. Visa carries no credit risk and generates revenues through fees collected on transactions conducted with Visa-branded cards, and while PayPal possesses some credit risk, that risk is rather small relative to its overall business. Both firms enable investors to capitalize on the shift to … Read more
Still Bullish — Stocks for the Long Run!
Excuses not to pick stocks are only exposing biases these days. By Brian Nelson, CFA The S&P 500 (SPY), Dow Jones Industrial Average (DIA) and Nasdaq (QQQ) continue to hover near all-time highs, and all appears well. We maintain our bullish take on the markets and believe that we are in the early innings of a long bull market that started following the washout March 2020 during the depths of the COVID-19 meltdown. Stock bull markets tend to average about 4.4 years in duration, with the last one enduring ~11 years, while bear markets are very abrupt, lasting only 11.3 months on average, the last one a very short 1.1 months, according to data from First Trust. We’re about 15 … Read more
There Is Milk At The Store
This article first appeared in the September edition of the High Yield Dividend Newsletter. For more information about this publication, please see here. “Now this is not the end. It is not even the beginning of the end. But it is, perhaps, the end of the beginning.” — Winston Churchill By Brian Nelson, CFA Very few of us could have imagined that we’d witness the bull market that began on that fateful day in March 2009 that might very well mark a generational low. In 2009, major investment banks around the globe were struggling to survive, and the fallout in the mortgage markets left the banks holding paper that nobody wanted to own, let alone buy. The global financial system … Read more
Valuentum’s June Best Ideas Newsletter
Image: Page 49, June edition of American Library Association Booklist. By Brian Nelson, CFA — Welcome new members! Roughly 90% of active management is underperforming their benchmarks, after fees, over the trailing 15-year period ending 2018. It’s a sad story out there. Most active investors are performing backward-looking analysis, others are using short-cut multiple analysis to make decisions; still, others may be continuing down the path of thinking that may have gotten active management in trouble in the first place: theoretical quantitative finance. The bedrock of finance, for example, the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) and its beta have been shown to explain little about stock market returns, yet it is still in finance textbooks and still on key … Read more
Answering Some Questions from Our Members
Image Source: Eric By Callum Turcan and Brian Nelson, CFA Let’s answer some questions we received recently from our members. Please note that the wording of some of the questions was modified somewhat for clarity. Question: What do you think about Moderna (MRNA), as their mRNA technology can be used for far more than just Covid-19 vaccines? Answer: We are simply amazed at how fast the pharmaceutical industry, in conjunction with various partners and government programs (Operation Warp Speed and others), discovered a safe and viable vaccine for the coronavirus (‘COVID-19’). Moderna was key to making that possible after its COVID-19 vaccine received emergency approval from the US FDA in December 2020. With a vaccine efficacy of 94.1%, Moderna really was … Read more
US Congress Is Getting Ready to Pass a Massive ~$2.2 Trillion Fiscal Stimulus Bill
Image Shown: US equities have started to recover some of their lost ground as the likelihood that the US Congress will pass a massive ~$2.2 trillion fiscal stimulus and emergency spending package, dubbed the CARES Act, has increased significantly over the past week as seen through the bounce in the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY). President Trump has clearly indicated that he intends to sign such a bill into law as soon as possible, with the US House of Representatives expected to take up the legislation this upcoming Friday morning on March 27. By Callum Turcan On March 25, the US Senate worked late into the night to secure a bipartisan compromise on a massive ~$2.2 trillion fiscal stimulus … Read more
S&P 500 Poised to Make New Highs…Again?
The equity markets have welcomed a strong earnings season thus far, but valuation risk and tail uncertainties remain, not the least of which is the possibility of failed tax reform in the US. By Brian Nelson, CFA Money is cheap, and investors are partying like its 1999 all over again. The latest move on the trading vehicle for the S&P 500, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) is yet again approaching new highs. We like the ongoing momentum in the stock market, something that we outlined in our “shocking” predictions for 2017, but we continue to reiterate our cautious stance, not only with respect to underlying valuations but also as it relates to the possibility of failed tax reform in … Read more
Valuentum: Now Bearish, We’ve Been Here Every Step of the Way
Valuentum Has Been Here Every Step of the Way From the COVID-19 top in February 2020 to the COVID-19 bottom to the massive bull run through the end of 2021, we’ve been here for you. 2022 started out to be a rough year, catching many by surprise. But Valuentum stayed positive. When the markets headed south in June, Valuentum stood its ground. On June 14, Valuentum said that “we still believe stocks could make a “huge rebound” in the near term. We reiterated our views a few days later and on June 19, we said that “investors shouldn’t panic during this bear market” and that “stocks remain an attractive proposition at the moment and a very attractive consideration … Read more