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The Difference Between Speculation and Investment

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Brian Nelson, President of Investment Research at Valuentum, discusses the difference between speculation and investment.  Brian Nelson, CFA: This is Brian Nelson from Valuentum Securities. I’d like to talk about the concept of speculation. I think it is best taught with a story perhaps, one of my personal experiences. I used to work on the buy side and one of the more interesting stocks that I pitched in my experience was a company called Synaptics (SYNA). This must have been in 2004-2005 — almost 20 years ago now. Synaptics made an interface for a number of electronic devices, and what it held was some of the technological building blocks for a click-wheel technology. About a year or two later following that … Read more

There Will Be Volatility

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By Brian Nelson, CFA Last year, 2022, was a big test for equity investors, and the downside volatility that we witnessed during the year wasn’t comfortable, to say the least. Following the COVID-19 crash and rebound during 2020, and then the market surge in 2021, it wouldn’t be a stretch to say many investors’ heads are probably still spinning from all the volatility witnessed to start this decade. That said, part of what we’ve been warning about the past few years with respect to the equity market, especially in Value Trap, is that the proliferation of price-agnostic trading (e.g. quant, machine/algorithmic trading, etc.) will only lead to more and more market volatility, so while we were somewhat surprised by last … Read more

Serious Question: What Are You Looking At?

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Image: Stocks with the largest 52-week losses, according to YahooFinance. By Brian Nelson, CFA Thank goodness that you’re subscribed to a service that didn’t include any of the above as top ideas in their simulated newsletter portfolios. Many were chasing returns in 2021 and are now left holding the bag this year, but we stuck to our methodology and processes, and we didn’t expose members to tremendous risks. That’s what it’s all about.  With that said, let’s talk about how we successfully navigated a number of these terrible ideas in the Exclusive publication, a monthly resource that includes an income idea, a capital appreciation idea, and a short idea consideration, released to members each month on the 8th. Exclusive Long Ideas … Read more

Video: How Many Stocks Should You Own?

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Video: Valuentum’s President of Investment Research, Brian Nelson, CFA, explains the importance of diversification, how to think about firm-specific and systematic risk, how many stocks one should own to achieve 90% of the diversification benefits, how to think about active asset allocation versus active equity management, and why diversification is a means to achieve goals, not the goal itself. A content-packed 14-minute video. Don’t miss it! –——— Tickerized for holdings in the ARKK. Also tickerized for META, PYPL. Brian Nelson owns shares in SPY, SCHG, QQQ, DIA, VOT, BITO, and IWM. Valuentum owns SPY, SCHG, QQQ, VOO, and DIA. Brian Nelson’s household owns shares in HON, DIS, HAS, NKE. Some of the other securities written about in this article may … Read more

Some Questions Answered: The Fair Value Estimate Range and ROIC

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Q: In the 16-page stock reports, why doesn’t the ‘percentage undervalued / overvalued’ match up to the actual discount/premium to Valuentum’s fair value estimate of the company? A: We view the intrinsic value of a company as a Fair Value Range, not necessarily a single point estimate, so the undervalued and overvalued calculations match up to either the low fair value estimate or high fair value estimate, respectively. Within the context of a margin of safety, we wouldn’t necessarily view a company to be worth precisely $55 per share, for example; instead we’d view the company as worth between $50 (low end fair value estimate) and $60 per share (high end fair value estimate), with the low and high fair … Read more

Adobe Signals Near Term Growth Rate Slowing Down, Longer Term Outlook Still Quite Bright

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Image Source: Adobe Inc – December 2021 Financial Analysts Meeting IR Presentation By Callum Turcan On December 16, Adobe Inc (ADBE) reported fourth quarter earnings for fiscal 2021 (period ended December 3, 2021) that modestly beat consensus top- and bottom-line estimates. However, shares of ADBE plummeted in the wake of its latest earnings report as management signaled that the firm’s near term growth rate would slow down in fiscal 2022 versus levels seen in fiscal 2021. Investors were apparently hoping for more, though in our view, Adobe’s longer term growth outlook is still quite bright. Our fair value estimate sits at $576 per share of Adobe. Earnings Update The company’s GAAP revenues were up 20% year-over-year last fiscal quarter, reaching … Read more

Large Cap Growth Has More Room To Run

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“The stylistic area of large cap growth has been one of our favorite areas because of the strong net cash rich, free cash flow generating, secular growth powerhouses that make up much of the space. The image is a rundown of the key Valuentum statistics for the top 15 holdings of the Schwab U.S. Large Cap Growth ETF (SCHG). We believe where large cap growth goes, so does the broader market, considering the hefty weightings of some of these stocks in other broad-based indices. Based on the high end of our fair value estimate range for this group of bellwethers, the broader U.S. markets still have room to run, to the tune of 7%+, despite the many highs already reached … Read more