OKE

ALERT: Adding Market Crash ‘Protection,’ Removing MSFT, BKNG

by

Image source: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.  ALERT: Adding Market Crash ‘Protection,’ Removing MSFT, BKNG — Changes to newsletter portfolios — We’re adding out-of-the-money put options to both the Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio and Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio. — We’re removing Microsoft from the Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio. — We’re removing Booking Holdings from the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio. — By Brian Nelson, CFA — We’re making some moves in the newsletter portfolios today.  — The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DIA) is currently indicated down 900+ points in pre-market trading during the session Monday, February 24. We laid out a thesis where the US markets could experience a “crash,” and we encourage you to read that take here, “Is a … Read more

Is a Stock Market Crash Coming? — Coronavirus Update and P/E Ratios

by

Image Source: World Health Organization, Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), Situation Report — 32 We don’t think this is the environment to put new capital to work, and we remain highly cautious of what COVID-19 means for global economic growth not just in the first quarter of 2020 but for the rest of this year (maybe longer). Right now, the US markets are not really factoring in anything related to COVID-19, and perhaps may be adjusting to China’s stimulus in artificially propping up the markets as if the outbreak is somehow a “positive thing.” With the S&P 500 trading at 19.0 forward earnings estimates–estimates that are likely too high given the evidence we are seeing with respect to a slowdown due … Read more

Resetting Your Mental Model

by

Image Source: affen ajlfe A version of this article was originally published on our website October 6, 2013. Having the right mental model and using the right information can be the reason why you win or lose in investing. “What is the definition of timeliness? Many believe it is getting information to investors as quickly as possible after an event, or updating something every single day or week for immaterial information. I believe in a different definition of timeliness. I believe timeliness is using all information available in a mosaic approach to accurately predict the event before it even happens. Take Kinder Morgan as the latest example. We were the only ones predicting what was going to happen before it did. To investors, … Read more

Valuentum Exclusive Success Rates Trump Even the Best Quant Hedge Funds

by

Image: President of Investment Research Brian Nelson, CFA By Brian Nelson, CFA A new book, “The Man Who Solved the Market,” hit bookshelves last year, and thus far it has been a hit. The text goes into the story of quant hedge fund Renaissance Technologies and its hedge fund, the Medallion Fund, which has put up mammoth returns since inception. Though the book focuses more on the life and times of founder Jim Simons and dedicated only a page or two to the fall of Long-Term Capital Management (LTCM), another quant fund that went belly-up during the late 1990s, it was nonetheless a thoroughly interesting and enjoyable read. But why I am bringing up one of the most successful quant … Read more

Chesapeake Energy’s Pain Indicates Nothing “Safe” About Energy MLP Distributions

by

Summary There is nothing “safe” in the stock market, and given the track record of the distributions of pipeline MLPs, there is nothing “safe” about pipeline MLP distributions. The MLP business model continues to be phased out, a trend that we anticipated when we made our bearish call on the group in June 2015. Chesapeake Energy’s pain is a yet another reminder of the pipeline MLP group’s exposure to energy resource pricing through the health (or rather ill-health) of its customer base. We continue to encourage pipeline operators to disclose free cash flow (cash flow from operations less all gross capital spending) prominently in press releases, alongside other industry-specific metrics. Investors of Chesapeake could get completely wiped out in a … Read more

Member Question: Reaves Utility Income Fund

by

Image Source: Reaves Utility Income Fund, April 30 Question: Have you ever looked at Reaves Utility Income Fund (UTG)? The fund is a utility fund that uses a little bit (20%) of leverage. I have owned them for a long time and have made a good return, but I wonder going forward if I should keep them in my portfolio? Utilities are popular right now, but popularity worries me. Answer: For starters, as is the case for financial publishers such as Valuentum, we can’t provide any personal advice, as we’re not aware of your personal goals and risk tolerances. Please always contact your personal financial advisor regarding any investment decision. With that said, according to Reaves’ website, “the Reaves Utility … Read more

ICYMI: Interview with Valuentum’s President Brian M. Nelson, CFA

by

Catch up with Valuentum’s President Brian M. Nelson, CFA in a recent interview with dividend growth investor Arne Magnus Lorentzen Ulland of the blog stockles. By Brian Nelson, CFA Recently, I was interviewed by Arne Magnus Lorentzen Ulland of the blog stockles. Arne is a dividend growth investor like many of you, and I sincerely hope you enjoy the interview he put together. I’m very grateful for his interest. His questions were fantastic. We discuss why and how I incorporate independence and integrity into the service at Valuentum. We go into detail regarding why Valuentum views stocks the way it does, and how Valuentum combines enterprise valuation and the information contained in prices in its stock-selection process. I discuss the pitfalls … Read more

Checking Out ARAMCO, Saudi Arabia’s Sleeping Giant

by

Image Source: Trending Topics 2019 By Callum Turcan Recent events have piqued our interest in the actions of Saudi Arabian Oil Company, better known as ARAMCO (ARMCO), the giant in charge of the Gulf nation’s hydrocarbon industry. Saudi Arabia is reportedly restarting ARAMCO’s IPO according to comments made by the Saudi Energy Minister, reviving a plan the country had previously put on ice primarily due to expectations that the company wouldn’t fetch a high enough valuation to suit the needs of the Kingdom. Many view ARAMCO as the most valuable company in the world, but whether this is a USD$2 trillion company or not is in the eye of the beholder (many see that target as overly ambitious, as do … Read more

Markets Swooning, Expect Extreme Volatility, Finger on Put-Option Trigger

by

Image shown: We notified members December 26 that we had  moved  the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio and Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio to a “fully invested” position, from a 30% and 20% cash “weighting” at the high end of the range, respectively.  — No change to simulated newsletter portfolios…at this time.  — Hi everyone, — Hope you’re navigating these tumultuous markets well.   — If you recall, during the holiday season last year, we had moved the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio and Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio to “fully invested.” See image above (point of the arrow). Because many members were traveling and out of the office, not all were able to read the notification until a week or two after. They were … Read more

Dividend Increases/Decreases for the Week Ending April 19

by

Below we provide a list of firms that raised their dividends during the week ending April 19. The dividend reports of covered firms on this list will be updated shortly with the new information. To access our dividend reports use the ‘Symbol’ search box in our website header. Firms Raising Their Dividends This Week American Water Works (AWK): now $0.50 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.455. AptarGroup (ATR): now $0.36 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.34. Celanese (CE): now $0.62 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.54. CIT (CIT): now $0.35 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.25. Civista Bancshares (CIVB): now $0.11 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.09. CNX Midstream Partners (CNXM): now $0.3732 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.3603. Cross … Read more