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Subscribe: The Nelson Exclusive Is Simply One of a Kind

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“I think the Nelson Exclusive publication is worth far more than what we charge for it, and we’re making it even better.” Hi folks, I have to admit that I was quite worried about launching the Nelson Exclusive May 2016. I didn’t know what to expect, and as we’ve progressed with new ideas each and every month, I’ve been working hard to incorporate feedback. For starters, we’re going to be moving to tracking the income characteristics of the income ideas on a go-forward basis as a measure of their success. Many members have voiced this long-term income-oriented preference, and frankly we think it makes a lot of sense. Not one income idea in the Exclusive has cut its dividend! But … Read more

Dividend Increases/Decreases for the Week Ending January 26

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Below we provide a list of firms that raised/lowered their dividends during the week ending January 26. The dividend reports of covered firms on this list will be updated shortly with the new information. To access our dividend reports use the ‘Symbol’ search box in our website header. Firms Raising Their Dividends This Week 3M (MMM): now $1.36 per share quarterly dividend, was $1.17. AGCO (AGCO): now $0.15 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.14. Air Products and Chemicals (APD): now $1.10 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.95. Alaska Air (ALK): now $0.32 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.30. ALLETE (ALE): now $0.56 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.535. Alliance Data Systems (ADS): now $0.57 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.52. … Read more

The New Theorem of the Stock Market

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President of Investment Research Brian Nelson talks about the new theory of the stock market and explains how syllogisms developed by Noble prize winners and the largest asset managers may not accurately reflect active management at the investor level, which Nelson argues is what matters. Running time: ~15 minutes. To view Valuentum’s updated YouTube page, please see here.  Excerpts from Value and Momentum Within Stocks, Too (Valuentum) Read the paper from the beginning here (pdf).   Tickerized for stocks in the Dow Jones Industrial Average.

Mutual Fund Tragedy, ROE, and the Time Horizon

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Comparisons between growth versus value stocks may never go away, but President of Investment Research Brian Nelson explains why you should know better than to think stocks can easily be divided up as such. He talks about this, as well as the pitfalls of ROE (return on equity) and how to think about the time horizon. Running time: ~10 minutes.

Admit It: You Know Nothing About the Dividend

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President of Investment Research Brian Nelson talks about how the concept of a dividend is completely miscontrued due to societal and cultural reasons, but he also explains why he likes dividends. Warning: He’s going to bust out Monopoly pieces. You don’t want to miss this! Running time: ~15 minutes.

I Love Dividends But the Dividend Discount Model is DEAD!

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President of Investment Research Brian Nelson gives a plethora of reasons why the dividend discount model is dead and expresses his worries about how it continues to be used academically and professionally. Also included is a discussion about why the weighted average cost of capital, or the WACC, is used in the enterprise free cash flow valuation process, or the free cash flow to the firm process. Running time: ~13 minutes.

Video: Quants! You’re NOT Measuring VALUE and Nelson’s Theory of Universal Value

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President of Investment Research Brian Nelson defines the concept of universal value and shows how quantitative statistical methods are inextricably linked to those of fundamental, financial, business-model related analysis. Value does not exist in respective process vacuums! Value is universal. Find out why. Running time: ~10 minutes.  Tickerized for Valuentum’s stock and ETF coverage universe. Transcript Hi this is Brian Nelson from Valuentum Securities, and this is the tenth edition of a series that I call “Off the Cuff,” where I get in front of the camera and I talk for ten minutes. This is what we have to talk about today. We have to talk about this concept: The Theory of Universal Value. Value does not exist in vacuums … Read more

Video: Explaining the Valuentum Buying Index

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The Valuentum Buying Index (VBI) stands on the shoulders of giants in finance in uncovering investment ideas.  Brian Nelson, CFA: This is Brian Nelson from Valuentum Securities. Today, I would like to talk about our Valuentum Buying Index, the stock selection methodology that we use and apply across our entire coverage universe. But before I get into some of the specifics, I’d like to provide more or less a summary. Essentially what the Valuentum Buying Index does is it highlights undervalued stocks that are going up in price. Undervalued stocks with good momentum…Value-ntum stocks. So, at the core, the Valuentum Buying Index tries to find stocks that we think have a very strong likelihood of equity price appreciation. It breaks … Read more

Earnings Roundup: McDonald’s, 3M, IBM

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Let’s recap a few big earnings announcements. By Brian Nelson, CFA McDonald’s (MCD) Stock Has Been Super Sized We expect to raise our fair value estimate of McDonald’s following second-quarter results, released July 25, that showed ongoing strength in comparable store sales and the operating income benefits of continued refranchising efforts. Incredibly, global comparable store sales at McDonald’s increased 6.6% in the second quarter, blowing by consensus estimates, and operating income advanced at a 24% clip on a year-over-year basis. Management noted that the second quarter marked the “strongest global comparable sales and guest count results in more than five years.” Nothing appears to be able to stop McDonald’s these days, and increased refranchising de-risks its business model from ongoing … Read more

Valuentum’s 3 Breakthroughs in the Field of Finance and More

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Valuentum’s President Brian Nelson pauses for a picture before speaking at the CFA Society of Houston in March 2017. By Valuentum Editorial Staff Let’s cover Valuentum’s 3 major breakthroughs in the field of finance. The first one is big and may challenge you to rethink everything you think you know about investing. 1. On a logical framework, Valuentum has debunked John C. Bogle’s landmark syllogism that has paved the way for the concept of index investing. Index investing has been built on a logical shortcoming, whether supported by evidence or not. We think it is important that the investment community know of this. Read (pdf): The “Luck” and “Randomness” of Index Funds (2018), Brian Nelson, CFA See video documentation: /FALLACY_of_Index_Funds To … Read more