KSU

The Correction: No Panic Selling on Columbus Day

by

The past three years have been an anomaly, in our view, with the broader equity markets practically going straight up. For those new to the markets and stock investing, in general, this simply is not how the equity markets behave. Many stock pickers have even become frustrated as a result of the market’s steady-eddy advance with negligible meaningful swings during most of the past 36 months. The market, as measured by the SPDR S&P 500 (SPY), hasn’t had a 10% drop in nearly 1,100 days. As of last Friday’s close, we’re a mere 5.6% from the intra-day high on September 19. During the past three years, the market has made everyone look like a genius, and frankly it has been … Read more

Union Pacific Still on Track

by

Union Pacific (UNP) reported solid second-quarter results July 24 and raised its quarterly dividend 10% today. The headline to the railroad’s second-quarter results said it best: All-Time Quarterly Records. The firm’s operating revenue advanced 10%, operating income increased 17%, and diluted earnings per share leapt 21%, to $1.43, all over the same period a year ago. Union Pacific’s operating ratio—the inverse of the operating margin in railroad speak—advanced 2.2 points, to 63.5%, as efficiency improvements and price increases drive the higher levels of profitability. Ongoing improvement to the firm’s operating ratio is core to our fundamental thesis on the company. Railroads simply have fantastic business models, and we think the group is on the cusp of a multi-year cycle of … Read more

Valuentum Economic Castleâ„¢ Rating Update

by

Read: Keeping the Horse Before the Cart: Valuentum’s Economic Castle™ Rating The Economic Castle Focuses on the Magnitude of Economic Value Creation The Valuentum Economic Castle™ rating is an enhancement of the competitive advantage framework (commonly known as economic moat analysis) that has become widespread and ubiquitous within the investing world. Whereas an economic moat framework evaluates a firm on the basis of the sustainability and durability of its competitive advantages, Valuentum’s Economic Castle™ rating evaluates a firm on the basis of the firm’s future economic profit spread (return on invested capital less its weighted average cost of capital). The companies with the strongest Valuentum Economic Castle™ ratings are poised to generate the most economic value for shareholders in the … Read more

Our Investment Thesis on Union Pacific Remains on Track; Pricing Growth Strong

by

Must Read: Joint Outlook for the Railroad and Coal Industries Union Pacific (UNP) showed why the company is included in the Best Ideas portfolio when it reported fourth quarter results Thursday. The company’s headline was nice: “Best-Ever Quarterly Results.” That’s saying quite a bit as coal shipments continue to provide stiff headwinds across much of the industry. Norfolk Southern (NSC), for example, recently reported an 8% decline in coal volumes during its fourth quarter, its results released Wednesday. Though revenue carloads of coal declined 10% during Union Pacific’s fourth quarter, strong pricing almost completely offset the weakness in this segment. Average revenue per car across all of Union Pacific jumped 6% in the quarter, far better than inflation. We continue to … Read more

Union Pacific Reports Best-Ever Quarterly Results; Thesis Remains Intact

by

Union Pacific (UNP) reported its “best-ever quarterly results” when it posted third-quarter performance Thursday. The quarterly results, in our opinion, were truly fantastic. The company’s operating ratio came in at a record 64.8% (the firm’s best ever—1.8 points better than the year-ago period), as the railroad offset lower coal and grain volumes with strong pricing and productivity improvements. Operating revenue advanced 4% thanks mainly to core pricing gains, which translated into 10% and 13% increases in operating income and diluted earnings per share, respectively. The strength came in spite of lost revenue and increased costs from the flooding in Colorado (which hurt operating income by roughly $10 million). Year-to-date, Union Pacific has hauled in $2.25 billion in free cash flow, … Read more

Air Quality Standards Take Aim at Coal

by

After competing with an abundance of lower-priced, cleaner natural gas, coal miners (KOL) may now have to deal with more demand headwinds as governments aim to reduce coal burning. The US Expectations are already for as much as 27 gigawatts’ worth of coal generation (about 8.5% of the US coal fleet) to retire by 2016. This percentage could rise to nearly 17% (one-sixth) by 2020, according to the Energy Information Administration. In addition to the expected retirements, the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) plans to block all new coal-fired plants unless the construction of these plants coincides with expensive technology that captures greenhouse gas emissions. Image Source: Energy Information Administration Though the EPA forecasts that no traditional coal-fired power plants (1) … Read more

Tales from the Rails

by

Since rails are heavily tied to weakening coal shipments, there was a great deal of skepticism about the industry’s strength during the back half of 2012. However, we saw evidence (AAR data) that indicated an altering freight mix (auto sales, intermodal, petroleum shipments, crushed stone, gravel and sand) could compensate for coal shipment weakness. Let’s dig into how the group is performing now that fourth-quarter results for a few of them have come in. On Thursday, Union Pacific’s (click ticker for report: ) fourth-quarter report revealed that its performance during the period was solid. Despite the weak coal shipments, revenue grew 3% year-over-year to $5.3 billion, roughly in line with consensus expectations. Earnings were better than anticipated, growing 10% year-over-year, to $2.19 a share. … Read more

No Coal? No Problem for the Rails

by

In the third quarter of 2012, we highlighted weak rail traffic as being driven by weaker coal shipments, and the trend continued throughout the fourth quarter. According to the Association of American Railroads (AAR), coal shipments for the week ending on December 22 fell 11.1% year-over-year. Given the wealth of railroads that were heavily leveraged to coal, including Norfolk Southern (click ticker for report: ), CSX (click ticker for report: ), and Union Pacific (click ticker for report: ), it would be natural to assume the entire segment is ripe for decline. Yet, that doesn’t appear to be the case. The AAR also reported that total rail traffic for that same week increased 0.9% compared to the previous year and … Read more