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Homebuilder Optimism Rises to Decades-Long Highs; Valuations Similarly High

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The Housing Market Index, which is based on a monthly survey of National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) members, posted a higher than expected jump in the most recent release of the monthly survey-based index, and homebuilders are nearly as optimistic as they have been at any point in the past two decades. Image shown: The iShares US Home Construction ETF’s (ITB) share price performance since the beginning of 2017. Shares are up more than 55% year-to-date (2017). By Kris Rosemann The housing market continues its recovery from the Financial Crisis of late last decade, and homebuilders’ confidence has rarely been higher. The Housing Market Index (HMI), which is based on a monthly survey of National Association of Home Builders … Read more

Housing Market Very Strong But To “Face Two Contradicting Challenges”

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Image Shown: The iShares US Home Construction ETF (ITB) has advanced ~ 24% year-to-date, according to data from YahooFinance. “Housing indicators may be leveling off,” per S&P Corelogic, and the threat of rising interest rates looms (as it has for years), but we like the fundamental strength that we’re seeing from the homebuilders of late, which has translated into strong equity performance. By Brian Nelson, CFA We’ve been bullish on the US housing market recovery since early 2012, and we’ve pointed to several factors as to why–including improved affordability, investment by both individuals and investors, falling unemployment, improved household formation, limited inventory, and more recently, the wealth effect that a rising stock market provides. Things continue to be on the … Read more

Valuentum’s 3 Breakthroughs in the Field of Finance and More

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Valuentum’s President Brian Nelson pauses for a picture before speaking at the CFA Society of Houston in March 2017. By Valuentum Editorial Staff Let’s cover Valuentum’s 3 major breakthroughs in the field of finance. The first one is big and may challenge you to rethink everything you think you know about investing. 1. On a logical framework, Valuentum has debunked John C. Bogle’s landmark syllogism that has paved the way for the concept of index investing. Index investing has been built on a logical shortcoming, whether supported by evidence or not. We think it is important that the investment community know of this. Read (pdf): The “Luck” and “Randomness” of Index Funds (2018), Brian Nelson, CFA See video documentation: /FALLACY_of_Index_Funds To … Read more

Housing Is Back! Trends in Home Improvement

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Housing prices are no longer in the dumps. What does this mean for the home improvement retailers, and how might other trends be helping to provide a positive industrywide backdrop? Both Home Depot and Lowes may be long-term winners, but valuation considerations shouldn’t be ignored. The Valuentum analyst team digs in. ~8 mins. If you cannot view the podcast below, please select the link here or view the transcript that follows. Chris Araos: Hello, this is Chris Araos at Valuentum Securities. With me are Kris Roseman and Brian Nelson. Today, we are going to focus on Home Depot (HD) and Lowes (LOW) and why they are doing so well. We have a strong housing market. New home sales have hit … Read more

New Home Sales Leap, Computer Sciences Surges; Xilinx Jumps

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May 24 brought news that US new home sales rose at the fastest pace in more than 8 years during the month of April 2016. Computer Sciences leaps to our estimate of intrinsic value on buyout news, and Altera rival Xilinx rises on speculation of potential suitor. ————————- By The Valuentum Team New Homes Sales Leap “Sales of new single-family houses in April 2016 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 619,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. This is 16.6 percent (±15.4%) above the revised March rate of 531,000 and is 23.8 percent (±22.8%) above the April 2015 estimate of 500,000… …The median sales price … Read more

Don’t Be Tempted By Homebuilders’ Dividends

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Image Source: Toll Brothers By Kris Rosemann The underproduction of homes since 2008 has created pent-up demand, providing a material tailwind for homebuilders as of late. According to estimates from Toll Brothers (TOL), the total estimated shortfall of housing starts from the period 2008-2014 was 5.7 million. That equates to an annual shortfall in production of ~818,000 new homes, providing significant opportunities for the homebuilding group as a whole moving forward. Pent-up housing demand has been accruing for years, and stronger general economic conditions, including lower unemployment, modest wage growth, and general consumer confidence continue to drive demand. A favorable jobs/wage market has the potential to provide a material boost for homebuilders, and additional demand could be found in the … Read more

Alcoa Kicks Off Fourth Quarter Earnings Season

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Would we ever considering owning Alcoa (AA) near a cyclical peak in economic demand, roughly 5-7 years into one of the strongest stock-market recoveries in history, or said differently, in the current environment? The short answer is: No. Market veterans know that the time to consider buying Alcoa is at a cyclical trough, not at peaks, and only then if there is no tangible risk of default. Alcoa may not be as much of an economic bellwether as it once was when the US was a much larger manufacturer of goods, but the aluminum giant is still relevant in assessing underlying demand trends in various end markets across the globe. The lightweight metal producer finds its way into just about … Read more

Homebuilders Bucking Downtrend

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Homebuilders have a reason to be optimistic as of late. Not only has the SPDR S&P Homebuilders ETF (XHB) firmed up, but Toll Brothers (TOL) released strong fundamental news, helping to buoy the industry. Toll Brothers operates at the high-end of the homebuilding industry. Its average home price, for example, has historically been ~$650,000 compared to ~$300,000 for its publicly-traded peers. As a result, we’d view Toll’s main competitors as small private builders catering to luxury demographics, not necessarily the large public builders. The firm’s performance, however, is worth watching as yet another data point with respect to the industry’s health. Pent up housing demand has been accruing for years, and new home inventory is limited, which makes for an … Read more