JPM

Top Research and Ideas You May Have Missed

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Is Quant Value Giving Intrinsic Value Investors a Bad Name? Surely, you don’t believe Warren Buffett’s “style” is out of favor? By Brian Nelson, CFA I need to make sure that you’re aware of something very important. The media and perhaps many investment professionals define the concept of “value” as companies with low price-to-book (P/B) ratios, and the concept of “growth” as companies with high price-to-book ratios. This definition of “value” and “growth” and their corresponding returns have been magnified in writings throughout the media and across quantitative research, even in prestigious journals. Warren Buffett has been rallying against most quantitative applications and how “growth” and “value” are defined in popular media and quantitative research for decades.  Here’s one of the Oracle’s most … Read more

Valuentum’s Economic Roundtable: Trade War, Factors and Beyond

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Tickerized for holdings in the DIA. The markets rallied hard September 5 on relief that the US and China (FXI, MCHI) will go back to the negotiations table next month. This back-and-forth news cycle is enough to give any investor whiplash. Let’s catch up with the Valuentum Team on the latest developments, not only with the trade war but also with respect to factor investing, possible bubbles and beyond. Let’s kick things off with the following prompt from ForeignPolicy.com, released August 2: Trump Hired Robert Lighthizer to Win a Trade War. He Lost. Robert Lighthizer, the U.S. trade representative, agreed to serve in President Donald Trump’s cabinet in order to test his theory: that if the United States freed itself … Read more

4 Very Good Reasons Why We Don’t Like Dividends of Banking Stocks

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Untermyer: Is not commercial credit based primarily upon money or property?Morgan: No, sir. The first thing is character.Untermyer: Before money or property?Morgan: Before money or anything else. Money cannot buy it … a man I do not trust could not get money from me on all the bonds in Christendom. –Mr. JP Morgan’s testimony before the Pujo Committee (questioning from Samuel Untermyer), 1912-1913   Image: Bank Run in Michigan, USA, February 1933. Source: Public Domain. By Brian Nelson, CFA It’s sometimes easy to lose sight of the fragility of a banking firm’s business model. Let’s examine the reasons why we don’t like banking firms’ dividends. Reason #1: A Bank Run Is Always Possible. Reason #2: Others Have Tried to Invest in Bank Dividends and Have Failed. Reason #3: … Read more

Economic Roundtable: Quant Quake, Quac-cidental Correlation

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Image Source: Anders Sandberg.  Last week, the markets may have revealed that internals aren’t all that healthy. Major equity markets experienced a “rotation” that reminded many investors of the “quant quake” from August 2007. As Valuentum’s Brian Nelson wrote in Value Trap, “just a few bad days in the market caused a rapid unwinding of many quant long-short strategies (back then). Goldman’s chief financial officer said at the time that the firm was witnessing ‘25-standard deviation moves, several days in a row.’” On the surface, markets last week seemed relatively calm, but as the episode in 2007 revealed the activity last week may just be the calm before the storm. Many are pointing to overcrowded trades in betting against certain … Read more

Valuentum: Now Bearish, We’ve Been Here Every Step of the Way

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Valuentum Has Been Here Every Step of the Way   From the COVID-19 top in February 2020 to the COVID-19 bottom to the massive bull run through the end of 2021, we’ve been here for you.    2022 started out to be a rough year, catching many by surprise.   But Valuentum stayed positive. When the markets headed south in June, Valuentum stood its ground. On June 14, Valuentum said that “we still believe stocks could make a “huge rebound” in the near term.   We reiterated our views a few days later and on June 19, we said that “investors shouldn’t panic during this bear market” and that “stocks remain an attractive proposition at the moment and a very attractive consideration … Read more