JOY

Nelson: The 16 Most Important Steps To Understand The Stock Market

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A previous version of this article appeared on our website July 21, 2013. Refreshed and updated throughout, as of July 2018. By Brian Nelson, CFA After earning my MBA at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business and training stock and credit analysts from large organizations over the past decade or so, I have heard just about every question (though I admit I am still surprised by many things and remain a very humble student of the markets). I’ve also spent years perfecting the discounted cash flow process for large research organizations such as Morningstar and studied under one of the most famed aggressive growth investors of all time, Richard Driehaus. My knowledge runs the gamut from value through … Read more

Dividend Increases/Decreases for the Week Ending December 18

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Below we provide a list of firms that raised/lowered their dividends during the week ending December 18. The dividend reports of covered firms on this list will be updated shortly with the new information. To access our dividend reports use the ‘Symbol’ search box in our website header. Firms Raising Their Dividends This Week ADT (ADT): now $0.22 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.21. AES (AES): now $0.11 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.10. Amgen (AMGN): now $1.00 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.79. Apollo Commercial (ARI): now $0.46 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.44. Apollo Residential Mortgage (AMTG): now $0.50 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.48. AT&T (T): now $0.48 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.47. Boeing (BA): now … Read more

Efficacy of the Dividend Cushion Ratio

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A version of this article was originally published September 2019. The Dividend Cushion ratio is one of the most powerful financial tools an income or dividend growth investor can use in conjunction with qualitative dividend analysis. The ratio is one-of-a-kind in that it is both free-cash-flow based and forward looking. Since its creation in 2012, the Dividend Cushion ratio has forewarned readers of approximately 50 dividend cuts. We estimate its efficacy at ~90%. By Valuentum Analysts  Key Takeaways: The Dividend Cushion ratio is a helpful tool to use to cushion your dividend growth or income portfolio against potential dividend cuts. The ratio also helps to assess the growth potential of a company’s dividend, above and beyond current expectations of payout … Read more

Deere Runs! South America Not As Bad?

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Deere’s equity is charging higher. Let’s look at the reasons why. Will Caterpillar follow? By Brian Nelson, CFA On May 19, agricultural equipment maker Deere (DE) reported solid quarterly results for the period ending April 30 that showed strong improvement in farm and construction equipment demand. Management noted that in its recently-completed second quarter “market conditions showed signs of further stabilization…(and) farm machinery sales in South America experience(ed) a strong recovery,” too. Deere increased its full-year earnings forecast to $2 billion, which it expects to be driven by 9% sales growth. Shares of Deere yield just north of 2% at the moment.

China Trouble: Plenty of Pain to Go Around

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Global stock markets have struggled mightily over the past few weeks, mostly in conjunction with the Federal Reserve hinting at a possible change in monetary policy. There have also been signs that global economic expansion is starting to weaken (read the World Bank’s lowered global outlook for GDP growth here), particularly in China–something we had identified a number of weeks ago as cause for concern prompting us to add protection to our Best Ideas portfolio at that time. It’s clear from recent data that economic growth in China will no longer be in the 9-11% range that the market has grown accustomed to, and it is our view that expansion will never return to such a pace due simply to the size of the country (absent, of course, during a recovery in the event that a deep recession does occur). … Read more