JAKK

Video: Quants! You’re NOT Measuring VALUE and Nelson’s Theory of Universal Value

by

President of Investment Research Brian Nelson defines the concept of universal value and shows how quantitative statistical methods are inextricably linked to those of fundamental, financial, business-model related analysis. Value does not exist in respective process vacuums! Value is universal. Find out why. Running time: ~10 minutes.  Tickerized for Valuentum’s stock and ETF coverage universe. Transcript Hi this is Brian Nelson from Valuentum Securities, and this is the tenth edition of a series that I call “Off the Cuff,” where I get in front of the camera and I talk for ten minutes. This is what we have to talk about today. We have to talk about this concept: The Theory of Universal Value. Value does not exist in vacuums … Read more

Addressing the Intricacies of the Dividend Cushion Ratio

by

The Dividend Cushion ratio continues to build an impressive track record of warning investors of impending dividend cuts, but it’s not perfect. Let’s examine a few recent cases. By Kris Rosemann and Brian Nelson, CFA The Dividend Cushion ratio has proven to be an extremely useful tool for income investors to help safeguard their portfolios from dividend cuts, but it does have its limitations. Sometimes, external forces that cannot be captured in the calculation of the Dividend Cushion can impact the sustainability of the dividend payment. Some of these external factors can be as complex as a transformational acquisition, to as straightforward as an unexpected guidance reduction, to as simple as a capital allocation policy change. The board sets the … Read more

In August, We Cut” Position in Hasbro in Dividend Growth Newsletter Portfolio”

by

We still have a small “position” in the emerging licensing giant in the Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio, having removed 75% of the “stake” in August. By Brian Nelson, CFA On August 18, 2017, we released the following email notification alert on Hasbro (HAS) to members, “ALERT: Newsletter Notification and Website Changes:” Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio — page 3 of the September edition here (pdf) We are removing 75% of our position in Hasbro from the Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio, or 82 shares at $96.54. Hasbro’s cost basis in the newsletter portfolio is ~$32. The company’s performance has been absolutely phenomenal. Stock page: /search-by-symbol/?tag=has Download Dividend Growth Newsletter transaction log here (not updated for notifications in this email). In August, we thought it … Read more

Valuentum’s 3 Breakthroughs in the Field of Finance and More

by

Valuentum’s President Brian Nelson pauses for a picture before speaking at the CFA Society of Houston in March 2017. By Valuentum Editorial Staff Let’s cover Valuentum’s 3 major breakthroughs in the field of finance. The first one is big and may challenge you to rethink everything you think you know about investing. 1. On a logical framework, Valuentum has debunked John C. Bogle’s landmark syllogism that has paved the way for the concept of index investing. Index investing has been built on a logical shortcoming, whether supported by evidence or not. We think it is important that the investment community know of this. Read (pdf): The “Luck” and “Randomness” of Index Funds (2018), Brian Nelson, CFA See video documentation: /FALLACY_of_Index_Funds To … Read more

Hit or Miss in the Video Gaming Entertainment Industry

by

The Valuentum analyst team talks the latest and greatest trends in the video game entertainment industry from tried-and-true titles to the financial positions of the largest players to retail big box and beyond. ~9 mins. Kris Rosemann: Welcome to Valuentum’s podcast. I’m Kris Rosemann and joining us today is Mr. Chris Araos. Chris, you have a strong background as an observer of trends in the video game entertainment industry. How would you say the world of gaming is shaping up these days? Chris Araos: Well, Kris — a lot has changed in video gaming in just the past five years thanks to the emergence of more-advanced mobile phones, which are just great devices to play games on. Unlike PCs or … Read more

There’s No Such Thing as a Perfect Process

by

Image Source: Kryzysztof “If mangement teams want to give bogus forward earnings guidance as in the case of Jakks Pacific or balk in light of ominous industry conditions as in the case of Marriott or National Oilwell Varco, or simply abandon the dividend altogether with no warning despite a flawless balance sheet and strong free cash flow generation as in the case of Quality Systems, the objective and financially-based Dividend Cushion ratio may come up short in predicting such irrational human behavior. The board can do what it wants with the dividend, and every board is different.” — Brian Nelson, CFA By Kris Rosemann The Dividend Cushion ratio does not have a perfect record in catching dividend cuts, though it … Read more

Dividend Giant Hasbro Surges; Raises Dividend 10%+

by

“If I had asked people what they wanted, they would have said faster horses.” – attributed to Henry Ford Image Source: Disney Entrepreneur Henry Ford had to be very careful listening to customer feedback when he first rolled out the automobile. If he hadn’t focused on his vision, he would have found himself trading the assembly line for a line of stalls housed to breed faster horses. The thought-processes behind the Valuentum strategy are much like those of Henry Ford selling the very first automobile to the American public. Though the horse and automobile both address means of transportation, the latter required a brand new way of thinking about travel itself. The automobile wasn’t “wrong,” if there can be a … Read more

Biggest News of the Day: Hasbro Beats Mattel and Jakks Pacific for Frozen Dolls

by

Mattel (MAT) could have been thought of as a lock to win a new merchandising agreement with Disney (DIS) to sell the princess dolls of Elsa and Anna from the blockbuster animated movie Frozen. After all, Mattel is widely-known for its dominance in the doll category thanks to its Barbie line-up. If not Mattel, surely it would be Jakks Pacific (JAKK), who currently sells a variety of Disney fairies dolls, playsets, dress-up and accessories. But both of these companies lost out to Habro (HAS), which today landed a new strategic merchandising relationship with Disney Consumer Products and Frozen Properties beginning in 2016. We think this news is huge and further supports our valuation and dividend thesis on the Dividend Growth … Read more

Still Not Worried about Hasbro

by

It was December 2011, and our team was considering adding either Mattel (MAT) or Hasbro (HAS) to the Dividend Growth portfolio. We could only add one due to diversification considerations (both are consumer discretionary physical toy makers), and both had strong dividends and were undervalued. Hasbro, however, had a slightly better Dividend Cushion score, and we opted to include its shares in the portfolio instead of Mattel’s. Though we discussed a great many different things about both of the companies, we’ve been very pleased with the selection of Hasbro into the portfolio, and we credit the Dividend Cushion methodology for providing the incremental relative insight into the stock-selection process. Since its addition, Hasbro has leapt more than 60%, excluding dividend … Read more