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Toll Brothers Ends Strongest Year Ever

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By Brian Nelson, CFA On December 9, luxury homebuilder Toll Brothers (TOL) reported better-than-expected fourth-quarter fiscal 2024 results with revenue and non-GAAP earnings per share coming in higher than the consensus forecasts. Home sales revenues increased 10% in the quarter, while delivered homes were 3,431, up 25%. Net signed contract value was up 32% compared to the same quarter a year ago, with contracted homes of 2,658, up 30%. Backlog value, however, fell 7% on a year-over-year basis, with homes in backlog of 5,996, down 9%. Toll Brothers’ adjusted home sales growth margin, which excludes interest and inventory write-downs, came in at 27.9% in the quarter, below the adjusted home sales gross margin of 29.1% in the fiscal fourth quarter … Read more

Home Depot Navigating Macroeconomic Uncertainty Well

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Image: Home Depot’s shares are flirting with all-time highs. By Brian Nelson, CFA On November 12, Home Depot (HD) reported better than feared third quarter results with both revenue and non-GAAP earnings per share coming ahead of the consensus forecast. Total sales increased 6.6% from the third quarter of fiscal 2023, while comparable store sales in the third quarter of fiscal 2024 fell 1.3% (consensus was at -3.27%), while comparable store sales in the U.S. fell 1.2% (consensus was at -3.3%). Customer comp transactions fell 0.6%, while comp average ticket dropped 0.8% in the third quarter versus last year. Home Depot’s adjusted operating income for the third quarter of fiscal 2024 was $5.6 billion on an adjusted operating margin of … Read more

Toll Brothers Expects Demand to Remain Solid Into 2025

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Image: Toll Brothers stock has done quite well during the past couple years. By Brian Nelson, CFA Luxury homebuilder Toll Brothers (TOL) recently reported fiscal third quarter results with revenue and non-GAAP earnings per share coming in better than expectations. Home sales revenues advanced 2% from the same period a year ago, while pre-tax income came in at $503.6 million, down from $553 million in last year’s quarter. Fiscal third quarter earnings per diluted share was $3.60 compared with $3.73 in the same period a year ago, but it exceeded the consensus forecast of $3.31 per share. Net signed contract value was $2.41 billion in the quarter, up 11% from last year’s period, while contracted homes were also up 11% … Read more

Home Depot’s Results Show Weaker Spending on Home Improvement Projects

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Image: Home Depot’s shares have been choppy the past few years. By Brian Nelson, CFA On August 13, Home Depot (HD) reported better-than-expected second quarter results with both its top line and non-GAAP earnings per share coming in higher than the consensus forecast. Comparable sales for the second quarter of fiscal 2024 fell 3.3%, while U.S. comparable sales slid 3.6%, however. Adjusted operating income for the second quarter was roughly flat with the year-ago period, while adjusted operating margin contracted approximately 20 basis points, to 15.3%. Adjusted net earnings nudged slightly lower in the second quarter, to $4.67 from $4.68 in the same period last year. Management’s commentary in the press release was cautious: The underlying long-term fundamentals supporting home … Read more

Paper: Value and Momentum Within Stocks, Too

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Please select the image below to download, “Value and Momentum Within Stocks, Too:” Abstract: This paper strives to advance the field of finance in four ways: 1) it extends the theory of the “The Arithmetic of Active Management” to the investor level; 2) it addresses certain data problems of factor-based methods, namely with respect to value and book-to-market ratios, while introducing price-to-fair-value ratios in a factor-based approach; 3) it may lay the foundation for academic literature regarding the Valuentum, the value-timing, and ultra-momentum factors; and 4) it walks through the potential relative outperformance that may be harvested at the intersection of relevant, unique and compensated factors within individual stocks. To download the full report, please click here (pdf). ———- Actual results … Read more

Lennar Navigating Fluctuating Interest Rate Environment Well

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Image: Lennar has been a strong performer since the beginning of 2023. By Brian Nelson, CFA On June 17, homebuilder Lennar (LEN) reported better than expected second quarter results for fiscal 2024. Total revenues increased 9%, while diluted earnings per share leapt to $3.45 in the quarter from $3.01 in the same period a year ago. New orders jumped 19%, to 21,293 homes, while the firm’s backlog stood at 17,873 homes with a dollar value of $8.2 billion. Deliveries in the quarter increased 15%, to 19,690 homes. Its average sales price, net of incentives, per home delivered came in at $426,000 in the second quarter, while its homebuilding gross margin was up 10 basis points from last year, to 22.6%. … Read more

Home Depot Sees Softness in Some Larger Discretionary Projects

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Image Source: Home Depot continues to experience some softness in sales of big ticket items. By Brian Nelson, CFA On May 14, Home Depot (HD) reported mixed first quarter results that showed revenue and earnings pressure, but the firm’s bottom line continued to hold up well relative to expectations. Total reported sales fell 2.3% in the quarter, while comparable store sales declined 2.8%, with comps declining 3.2% in the U.S. in the period. Net earnings for the first quarter dropped to $3.63 per share compared to $3.82 per share in the same period a year ago. Management noted some softness in its business to start the spring: The team executed at a high level in the quarter, and we continued … Read more

Toll Brothers Notes Strong Start to Spring Selling Season

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By Brian Nelson, CFA Back on February 20, luxury homebuilder Toll Brothers (TOL) released first-quarter results for fiscal 2024. Both revenue and GAAP earnings per share came in better than expected. Home sales revenue increased 10% in the quarter from the year-ago period, while delivered homes advanced 6%. Impressively, net signed contract value was up 42% from last year’s quarter, while the number of contracted homes increased 40%. Its backlog fell 18%, to $7.08 billion, however, but the company continues to benefit from higher home sales gross margins. Management’s commentary on the quarter was upbeat in the press release: We are very pleased with our strong first quarter results. We delivered 1,927 homes at an average price of approximately $1.0 … Read more

We Remain Bullish; Is This 1995 – The Beginning of a Huge Stock Market Run?

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Image: Large cap growth stocks have trounced the performance of the S&P 500, REITs, and bonds since the beginning of 2023. We expect continued outperformance in this area of the market. By Brian Nelson, CFA We’re now roughly four years past the depths of the COVID-19 meltdown, where equities collapsed in February and March of 2020. As the markets began to recover through 2020, our long-term conviction in equities only grew stronger. We think the biggest risk for long-term investors remains staying out of the market on the basis of what could be considered stretched valuation multiples. As we outlined heavily in the book Value Trap, valuation multiples hardly tell the complete story about a company and often omit key … Read more

Dividend Growth Idea Home Depot Hikes Payout Nearly 8%!

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Image: Home Depot is working through some soft sales trends following robust home improvement spending during the pandemic, but the company’s free cash flow generation remains top notch. By Brian Nelson, CFA On February 20, Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio holding Home Depot (HD) reported mixed fourth quarter results that showed revenue pressure in the period, but the company still beat expectations on both the top and bottom lines. We’re huge fans of Home Depot’s resilience through the ups and downs of the real estate market, and the company’s pace of dividend growth remains solid. Our fair value estimate of Home Depot stands at $369 per share, modestly higher than where it is trading, and the company has a strong 1.4x … Read more