FAQ: Why Doesn’t the ‘Percentage Undervalued/Overvalued’ Match Up to the Actual Discount/Premium to Valuentum’s Fair Value Estimate of the Company?

We view the intrinsic value of a firm as a range, not a single point estimate. So instead of us saying that a company is worth exactly $55 per share, for example, instead we’d say it is worth between $50 (low end) and $60 per share (high end) — think of this range as our margin of safety. We use a margin of safety due to the inherent uncertainty of predicting with absolute precision a firm’s future free cash flow stream — a firm’s future free cash flows determine our estimate of the company’s intrinsic value, and the future is not known yet. As a result, the ‘percentage undervalued/overvalued’ (as shown on our 16-page reports) is calculated by comparing the firm’s current price with the … Read more

FAQ: How Is Your Best Ideas Portfolio Doing This Year?

At Valuentum, we task ourselves with a tall order. While most investment newsletters compare themselves to a market benchmark, we go one step further. We want to deliver positive returns to you, our subscriber, year after year, in addition to outperforming the market benchmark. Below, we outline a table that shows the outperformance we provided to our members since the time they joined.  So, for example, if you joined as a member on April 13, 2012 our Best Ideas portfolio has offered 3.8 percentage points of outperformance. Or, if you joined on July 13, 2011, our Best Ideas portfolio has offered 22 percentage points of outperformance. Importantly, did you know that, according to Advisor One, only 13% of hedge funds are beating the S&P … Read more

A Dual Focus on Valuation and Yield Is the Best Way to Combat Changes in Future Dividend Tax Rates

With a potential hike in the dividend tax rate just around the corner, there is no more important time than now for income investors to evaluate their existing portfolio holdings to determine whether they are well-positioned for a higher-tax environment. Assuming there are no changes to the current trajectory, the top dividend tax rate is expected to rise to 39.6% next year (up from 15% currently), and the highest-income earners will see a Medicare surtax on top of that. Evaluate All Aspects of a Dividend Investment First of all, we think those investing in high-yielders (firms) at any price (HYAAP) may be most affected by this change in tax rates. These high-yielders at any price (HYAAP) tend to be favorites of those at or near retirement, particularly given the paltry payouts on fixed … Read more

MLPs Breaking Out But More Questions

As we stated when we added exposure to the energy sector October 6 (see here), we’d be fools not to acknowledge the technical breakout in units of master limited partnerships the past few weeks. The group still has a long way to go to get back to “even,” but for the sake of retirees who are “DRIPping” into these equities, we sincerely hope some losses can be recuperated. Our experience tells us, however, that the road won’t be an easy one, but we are hoping chartists will be piling into units in the coming days. Fundamental investors may not be aware of this “technical” catalyst to come, but the breakout could be a big one. MLP investors have lost so … Read more

January 5-9: The Week That Was – Drowning in Crude

By Brian Nelson, CFA The first full week of 2015 was a wild one! Monday and Tuesday brought some hefty losses to the indices, but the middle of the week helped recover most of the ground, only to give some of it back Friday. When all was said and done, however, the S&P 500 still closed comfortably above 2040, a huge leap from just 5-6 years ago. We’re still enjoying the good times, with economic data still coming in relatively sanguine. Like a frog in water, the markets are just waiting for the next shoe to drop, and the Federal Reserve is doing all that it can to assure investors that the Yellen-put is there to prop up the markets should … Read more

Assessing Reactions to Trump’s Victory

Image Source: Gage Skidmore Donald Trump will be the 45th President of the United States of America. Let’s dig into some of the reactions across the market. We’re keeping our cool. By Kris Rosemann and Brian Nelson, CFA The global markets often don’t know what to make of surprises, a characteristic that was on full display as news came rolling in that Donald Trump would soon become the 45th President of the United States, “trumping” Secretary Hillary Clinton in a decisive electoral college victory, despite the popular vote eventually going to the Democratic candidate. In the wee hours of the morning Wednesday, November 9, major markets across the globe were in shock, showing red almost across the board. At one … Read more

Dividend Increases/Decreases for the Week Ending October 27

Below we provide a list of firms that raised/lowered their dividends during the week ending October 27. The dividend reports of covered firms on this list will be updated shortly with the new information. To access our dividend reports use the ‘Symbol’ search box in our website header. Firms Raising Their Dividends This Week 1st Constitution Bancorp (FCCY): now $0.06 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.05. Abaxis (ABAX): now $0.16 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.14. AbbVie (ABBV): now $0.71 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.64. AFLAC (AFL): now $0.45 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.43. Agnico Eagle (AEM): now $0.11 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.10. Alliance Holdings (AHGP): now $0.735 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.73. Alliance Resource … Read more

Dividend Increases/Decreases for the Week Ending October 30

Below we provide a list of firms that raised/lowered their dividends during the week ending October 30. The dividend reports of covered firms on this list will be updated shortly with the new information. To access our dividend reports use the ‘Symbol’ search box in our website header. Firms Raising Their Dividends This Week AFLAC (AFL): now $0.41 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.39. Aptar Group, Inc. (ATR): now $0.30 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.28. Arc Logistics Partners (ARCX): now $0.44 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.425. Central Pacific Financial (CPF): now $0.14 per share quarterly dividend, was 0.12. Colombia Sportswear Company (COLM): now $0.17 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.15. CorEnergy (CORR): now $0.15 per share quarterly dividend, … Read more

How to Think About Corporate Tax Reform