COH

Ouch…Coach. Large Cash Balance Offers Flexibility Though.

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We always look for revenue expansion before diving into any idea. Such an approach is the cornerstone of avoiding falling knives (stocks that look like value but yet keep falling). For Coach (COH), we were modeling in a very difficult 2015 and 2016, but we thought 2017 and 2018 would be brighter for the handbag maker as it annualizes weak comparable sales and gets North America back on track. We also thought the firm’s ~3.8% dividend yield would act as support for the firm’s shares. Though most of this may still be true, the company’s calendar third-quarter results left much to be desired. On a constant-currency basis, revenue fell 9% in the period, while net income for the quarter totaled … Read more

October Dividend Growth Newsletter Introduction

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Dear Member, The month of September represented some tough sledding for the markets, and we think things will get worse before they get better. If you missed our write up on the seven reasons why we think we’re due for a fall, please be sure to catch up on the piece here. We made a number of changes to the Dividend Growth portfolio since the release of the previous edition of the newsletter. Let’s make sure you didn’t miss anything. For one, yesterday, we added S&P 500 SPDR put option contracts to the portfolio to protect the large gains. Specifically, we added protection in the form of 5 put option contracts on the S&P 500 (SPY), with November 22 expiration … Read more

What Is Fat Pitch Investing?

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“I call investing the greatest business in the world … because you never have to swing. You stand at the plate, the pitcher throws you General Motors at 47! U.S. Steel at 39! and nobody calls a strike on you. There’s no penalty except opportunity lost. All day you wait for the pitch you like; then when the fielders are asleep, you step up and hit it.” —Warren Buffett, Interview in Forbes magazine (1 November 1974) “The stock market is a no-called-strike game. You don’t have to swing at everything — you can wait for your pitch. The problem when you’re a money manager is that your fans keep yelling, ‘Swing, you bum!’” –Warren Buffett, 1999 Berkshire Hathaway Annual Meeting, … Read more

Tiffany Dazzles in Second Quarter; Coach Now Yielding ~4%

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Be sure to catch Valuentum’s Brian Nelson discussing Tiffany’s reports on CNBC Asia at 9:30 PM CST today. The video clip will be posted to the website as soon as it is made available. Luxury jewelry maker Tiffany (TIF) reported fantastic second-quarter results Wednesday and raised its bottom-line guidance for the second time this year and in as many quarters. Tiffany has been benefiting from a modernization of its classical jewelry line-up thanks to the ongoing success of its newest ATLAS collection (shown right) and TIFFANY T jewelry collection (shown below). The ATLAS collection is named for the mythic Greek god and showcases Roman numerals in designs symbolic of strength and freedom on pieces ranging from pendants and earrings to … Read more

Valuentum Economic Castleâ„¢ Rating Update

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Read: Keeping the Horse Before the Cart: Valuentum’s Economic Castle™ Rating The Economic Castle Focuses on the Magnitude of Economic Value Creation The Valuentum Economic Castle™ rating is an enhancement of the competitive advantage framework (commonly known as economic moat analysis) that has become widespread and ubiquitous within the investing world. Whereas an economic moat framework evaluates a firm on the basis of the sustainability and durability of its competitive advantages, Valuentum’s Economic Castle™ rating evaluates a firm on the basis of the firm’s future economic profit spread (return on invested capital less its weighted average cost of capital). The companies with the strongest Valuentum Economic Castle™ ratings are poised to generate the most economic value for shareholders in the … Read more

Tiffany and Nike Disappoint in China

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Valuentum previously outlined the importance of brand strength in its comprehensive piece: “Valuentum’s Comprehensive Report on Retail Brands.” This article will focus on Tiffany’s (TIF) and Nike’s (NKE) performance in the Asia-Pacific, and where applicable, China, a country that we believe is vital for long-term expansion and to support our fair value estimates of both firms. Recent reports have put a damper on the outlook for luxury spending in China during 2014. Though the outlook is consistent with data points we’ve received with respect to slowing, but still robust, economic expansion in China, the commentary is worth nothing: Wealthy Chinese are likely to buy fewer luxury goods again this year after the steepest cut-back on spending in at least five … Read more

Tiffany’s Bottom Line Sparkles in 3Q; Pricing Power Evident

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Tiffany’s (TIF) third-quarter results, released Tuesday, showed solid revenue expansion and fantastic operating leverage. Worldwide net sales jumped 7% on a reported basis and 11% on a constant-currency basis; comparable sales advanced 7%. Reported sales in the Americas region increased 4% thanks in part to growth in Tiffany’s New York flagship store. In the Asia-Pacific region, reported revenue leapt an impressive 27%; comparable sales in the region jumped 22%. Negative currency impacts hurt reported sales in Japan, but underlying, constant-currency performance in the country was solid. Even in Europe, a region that continues to struggle for economic expansion, Tiffany revealed 7% reported growth thanks in part to strength in the United Kingdom. The company’s profit margin performance was also wonderful … Read more

Is the Worst Behind China?

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Summer was not very kind to the Chinese economy. We’ve seen the country hit by concerns of credit overexpansion, as well as negative manufacturing data and declining exports. On top of macro issues, companies that usually prosper in China like Nike (click ticker for report: ) and Yum! Brands (click ticker for report: ) posted weak results. However, after bottoming out at 47.7 during July, the HSBC China Manufacturing PMI compiled by Markit turned modestly positive at 50.1 during the month of August (anything above 50 represents expansion). Industry destocking appears to be mostly completed, and manufacturers are receiving more new orders. HSBC’s lead Asian economist Hongbin Qu implied the economy had bottomed, saying in the press release: “The final … Read more

With North America Saturated, Coach Needs International Growth

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As has become the norm for Coach (click ticker for report: ), shares of the handbag and fashion accessory maker experienced heightened volatility after it reported lackluster results for its fiscal year 2013 fourth quarter Tuesday. Revenue increased 6% year-over-year to $1.2 billion, slightly below consensus estimates. Earnings per share advanced just 3% compared to the same period last year, coming in at $0.89 (after adjusting for one-off items). Free cash flow for the fiscal year was strong at $1.2 billion, an increase of 20% compared to the prior year and equal to 24% of total revenue. One thing is certain at Coach—the core North American business likely won’t be the same growth driver it has been in years past.  … Read more