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In The News: Facebook, China and the Semiconductor Complex

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Facebook gets a new Street high price target, while news ebbs and flows regarding US-China tech relations. By Brian Nelson, CFA There’s a new Street high price target on one of our favorite ideas, Facebook (FB), and it’s $275 per share. Facebook has been the most recent 10 on the Valuentum Buying Index, and despite ongoing “noise” with respect to the Cambridge Analytica scandal, we value shares at $250 each. We’re also reiterating our view that our discounted-cash-flow-based valuation only considers ongoing trends on an advertising-only business model, not incremental upside from processing payments on its platform or innovation at Instagram, which recently put together a new product called IGTV, a You-Tube-like offering. We think the Facebook “story” is still … Read more

Prepared Remarks From Nelson Exclusive Conference Call June 30

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Read President of Investment Research Brian Nelson’s prepared remarks for the yearly roundup conference call, held for Nelson Exclusive members. If you would like to subscribe to the Nelson Exclusive publication, please learn more about the publication here. The Nelson Exclusive publication does not reflect real performance. Performance is hypothetical and does not represent actual trading. Ladies and Gentlemen, Thank you very much for joining us on the first conference call for members of the Nelson Exclusive publication. The first year of the publication has surely been an exciting one for all involved. When I first wrote the introductory letter of the Nelson Exclusive on July 1, 2016, we were well-aware the market had laid down the gauntlet for this publication. … Read more

Valuentum’s 3 Breakthroughs in the Field of Finance and More

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Valuentum’s President Brian Nelson pauses for a picture before speaking at the CFA Society of Houston in March 2017. By Valuentum Editorial Staff Let’s cover Valuentum’s 3 major breakthroughs in the field of finance. The first one is big and may challenge you to rethink everything you think you know about investing. 1. On a logical framework, Valuentum has debunked John C. Bogle’s landmark syllogism that has paved the way for the concept of index investing. Index investing has been built on a logical shortcoming, whether supported by evidence or not. We think it is important that the investment community know of this. Read (pdf): The “Luck” and “Randomness” of Index Funds (2018), Brian Nelson, CFA See video documentation: /FALLACY_of_Index_Funds To … Read more

Verizon Shows Off Cash-Flow Generating Prowess in Second Quarter

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Thursday morning, Verizon (click ticker for report: ) reported in-line but strong second quarter results and raised its capital spending guidance for 2013, casting a positive light on the telecom equipment makers. We continue to pay very close attention to Verizon’s operating performance, as we consider the firm one of our top contenders for addition to our Dividend Growth portfolio. Verizon’s revenue performance during the quarter was solid (up more than 4% on a consolidated basis), with wireless service revenues and wireless retail service revenues both up about 8%. The company posted 941,000 retail postpaid net additions (up 6% year-over-year), driving total retail postpaid connections to 94.3 million (retail postpaid churn was 0.93% in the second quarter). Apple’s (click ticker … Read more

Nelson: The 16 Most Important Steps To Understand The Stock Market

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A previous version of this article appeared on our website July 21, 2013. Refreshed and updated throughout, as of July 2018. By Brian Nelson, CFA After earning my MBA at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business and training stock and credit analysts from large organizations over the past decade or so, I have heard just about every question (though I admit I am still surprised by many things and remain a very humble student of the markets). I’ve also spent years perfecting the discounted cash flow process for large research organizations such as Morningstar and studied under one of the most famed aggressive growth investors of all time, Richard Driehaus. My knowledge runs the gamut from value through … Read more