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ICYMI: Valuentum’s Improved Stock and ETF Web Pages

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Valuentum has rolled out improved stock and ETF web pages on its website valuentum.com/. Now, subscribers can access key proprietary information on the stock and ETF web pages in addition to the customary stock and ETF reports. Dear reader, We have some exciting news that we can’t wait to share with you! At valuentum.com/, we have rolled out new stock and ETF pages that conveniently include a variety of our proprietary metrics from the Dividend Cushion ratio to the Economic Castle rating and beyond! There’s even mouseover functionality so you can learn about how we define the key metrics across our stock-selection and dividend growth methodologies. You’ll still have access to the stock and dividend reports on the landing pages, … Read more

Trump Targets China with Tariffs

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Image: Shanghai, China (December 2016), Andrey Filippov Stock markets in the US are slowly building in the prospect of retaliation (a “trade war”) from China, as a result of President Trump’s new tariffs. We maintain our view that the stock market has been frothy for some time, and the recent volatility may just be the beginning of a reversion to normalized valuations, with or without concerns about global trade. By Brian Nelson, CFA The market may be using concerns about a “trade war” as a reason to sell overpriced stock. According to Factset, as of March 16, the forward 12-month price-to-earnings ratio for the S&P 500 is still over 17 times, one turn more than the 5-year average and nearly … Read more

Our Ideas Are Performing Awesome So Far in 2018!!! 6 of the Top 7 of the Dow!

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By Brian Nelson, CFA Every day we think about how we can make things easier for our members. Instead of having to visit multiple links on our website with screens, you now have access to one downloadable Excel file where you can sort and rank how you wish. Of course, you can always find those screens in the newsletters, each and every month, too, but we think a weekly data download is a huge value add to our offering. Can you imagine getting updated data every week for 52 weeks of the year for what we charge, let alone two newsletters, hundreds of reports, commentary, and education material? Wow, right? People keep saying we do too much, but when our … Read more

The “Luck” and “Randomness” of Index Funds

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Please select the image below to download the document. Image shown, page 1 of 14. Tickerized for Valuentum’s coverage universe.

Trump’s Tariffs Ignite Concerns about Protectionism, Rising Input Costs

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Image Source: Michael Vadon President Trump is making true on his promises to protect the domestic steel and aluminum industries. Input costs may move higher for many global industrials, and the long-term implications of protectionist policy will be tested. We’re not expecting retaliation, but we can’t rule it out either. Rising rates remain our primary concern. Kris Rosemann and Brian Nelson, CFA If rising interest rates aren’t enough to give the market heartburn, President Trump announced March 1 that he will impose tariffs on the importation of steel and aluminum to the tune of 25% and 10%, respectively, citing national security concerns. Steel and aluminum stocks rallied hard on the news, but it left many of its industrial brethren under … Read more

Subscribe: The Nelson Exclusive Is Simply One of a Kind

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“I think the Nelson Exclusive publication is worth far more than what we charge for it, and we’re making it even better.” Hi folks, I have to admit that I was quite worried about launching the Nelson Exclusive May 2016. I didn’t know what to expect, and as we’ve progressed with new ideas each and every month, I’ve been working hard to incorporate feedback. For starters, we’re going to be moving to tracking the income characteristics of the income ideas on a go-forward basis as a measure of their success. Many members have voiced this long-term income-oriented preference, and frankly we think it makes a lot of sense. Not one income idea in the Exclusive has cut its dividend! But … Read more

Stocks Stage Comeback, US Government Budget Released

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Image shown: The performance of the Dow Jones Industrial Average since September 2017. The market continues to lick its wounds following the sell-off. We’re watching interest rates and technicals for signs where the market may go next. By Kris Rosemann and Brian Nelson, CFA The US 10-year Treasury yield (TLT, TBT) hit a four-year high before the open February 12, suggesting recent volatility in the equity markets is anything but going away in the near term, despite stocks bouncing back from the rough week that ended February 9. Rising interest rates may not create a financial crisis, but it could challenge the widely-held view that stock prices only increase over long-enough periods of time. After all, the past 40-year bull … Read more

The US Dollar, GDP Expansion, and Earnings

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Investors wouldn’t think news flow is that robust given that stock market volatility in recent months has been practically nil, but news is coming in fast. Let’s check up on the performance of the US dollar, the rate of GDP growth as well as key companies reporting fourth-quarter earnings. Intel’s quarterly report was fantastic, for one!    By Kris Rosemann The US dollar (UUP, UDN, USDU) hit a three-year low against the euro, but US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin suggests a weaker dollar may be good for the US, which is a change from traditional US policy, though he was sure to note that the government is not concerned about short-term fluctuations in the currency. Meanwhile, of course, the euro … Read more

The New Theorem of the Stock Market

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President of Investment Research Brian Nelson talks about the new theory of the stock market and explains how syllogisms developed by Noble prize winners and the largest asset managers may not accurately reflect active management at the investor level, which Nelson argues is what matters. Running time: ~15 minutes. To view Valuentum’s updated YouTube page, please see here.  Excerpts from Value and Momentum Within Stocks, Too (Valuentum) Read the paper from the beginning here (pdf).   Tickerized for stocks in the Dow Jones Industrial Average.

Mutual Fund Tragedy, ROE, and the Time Horizon

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Comparisons between growth versus value stocks may never go away, but President of Investment Research Brian Nelson explains why you should know better than to think stocks can easily be divided up as such. He talks about this, as well as the pitfalls of ROE (return on equity) and how to think about the time horizon. Running time: ~10 minutes.