CAA

Housing Is Back! Trends in Home Improvement

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Housing prices are no longer in the dumps. What does this mean for the home improvement retailers, and how might other trends be helping to provide a positive industrywide backdrop? Both Home Depot and Lowes may be long-term winners, but valuation considerations shouldn’t be ignored. The Valuentum analyst team digs in. ~8 mins. If you cannot view the podcast below, please select the link here or view the transcript that follows. Chris Araos: Hello, this is Chris Araos at Valuentum Securities. With me are Kris Roseman and Brian Nelson. Today, we are going to focus on Home Depot (HD) and Lowes (LOW) and why they are doing so well. We have a strong housing market. New home sales have hit … Read more

New Home Sales Leap, Computer Sciences Surges; Xilinx Jumps

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May 24 brought news that US new home sales rose at the fastest pace in more than 8 years during the month of April 2016. Computer Sciences leaps to our estimate of intrinsic value on buyout news, and Altera rival Xilinx rises on speculation of potential suitor. ————————- By The Valuentum Team New Homes Sales Leap “Sales of new single-family houses in April 2016 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 619,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. This is 16.6 percent (±15.4%) above the revised March rate of 531,000 and is 23.8 percent (±22.8%) above the April 2015 estimate of 500,000… …The median sales price … Read more

Don’t Be Tempted By Homebuilders’ Dividends

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Image Source: Toll Brothers By Kris Rosemann The underproduction of homes since 2008 has created pent-up demand, providing a material tailwind for homebuilders as of late. According to estimates from Toll Brothers (TOL), the total estimated shortfall of housing starts from the period 2008-2014 was 5.7 million. That equates to an annual shortfall in production of ~818,000 new homes, providing significant opportunities for the homebuilding group as a whole moving forward. Pent-up housing demand has been accruing for years, and stronger general economic conditions, including lower unemployment, modest wage growth, and general consumer confidence continue to drive demand. A favorable jobs/wage market has the potential to provide a material boost for homebuilders, and additional demand could be found in the … Read more

Nelson: The 16 Most Important Steps To Understand The Stock Market

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A previous version of this article appeared on our website July 21, 2013. Refreshed and updated throughout, as of July 2018. By Brian Nelson, CFA After earning my MBA at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business and training stock and credit analysts from large organizations over the past decade or so, I have heard just about every question (though I admit I am still surprised by many things and remain a very humble student of the markets). I’ve also spent years perfecting the discounted cash flow process for large research organizations such as Morningstar and studied under one of the most famed aggressive growth investors of all time, Richard Driehaus. My knowledge runs the gamut from value through … Read more

How to Think About Corporate Tax Reform

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Dropping Coverage of the Homebuilders Industry

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Image Source: ArmchairBuilder.com Valuentum is dropping coverage of the homebuilders industry to allocate resources elsewhere. Structure of the Homebuilders Industry The meltdown in housing late last decade is a prime example of the extreme cyclicality of the homebuilding industry. Housing market health is determined by a number of variables: consumer confidence, employment, household formation, replacement demand (natural disasters), inventory (existing/shadow), interest rates, lending standards, and housing prices themselves. The market is far from homogenous, and stronger builders focus on regions with favorable supply/demand characteristics and pursue lot options instead of land purchases. Still, we don’t like the structure of the group given its boom and bust nature. CalAtlantic (CAA) CalAtlantic has agreed to be acquired by Lennar in a cash and … Read more