BHP

Strong Iron Ore Supply Weighs on Rio Tinto

by

Over the past several weeks, the diversified mining sector has been under attack, as Vale (ticker for report: ), BHP (click ticker for report: ) and Best Ideas Newsletter holding Rio Tinto (click ticker for report: ) have seen their share prices decline considerably. Given the relative performance of the S&P 500, as well as improving macro fundamentals in the United States, the decline may seem inexplicable—until we consider the dynamics of the iron ore industry. Iron ore (one of the most important and profitable commodities in recent years) prices rose over 60% in relatively short order during the beginning of the year, suggesting robust demand from China. However, China responded aggressively to the rise in prices, accusing the big … Read more

Freeport McMoRan Following the BHP Model

by

Early Wednesday morning, leading copper and gold miner Freeport McMoRan (click ticker for report: ) announced a $9 billion blockbuster deal to acquire its former holding McMoRan Oil & Gas (click ticker for report: ) and independent oil and gas company Plains Exploration & Production (PXP). The deal itself values Plains at approximately $45-50 per share ($25 per share cash/0.6531 shares of FCX per share), while Freeport will pay $14.75 per share for McMoRan Oil & Gas. Given the cloudy long-term outlook for copper and gold mining, mainly a result of the often unfriendly places these resources reside, we think the company is happy to purchase operations in the Gulf and continental US. We’ve seen mine nationalization in both South … Read more

2,350-2,750 on the S&P? Could the Coronavirus Catalyze a Financial Crisis?

by

Image: We think a rather modest sell-off in the market to the target range of 2,350-2,750 on the S&P 500 is rather reasonable in the wake of one of the biggest economic shocks since the Global Financial Crisis. The chart above shows how far markets have advanced since 2011, and an adjustment lower to the target range of 2,350-2,750 is rather modest in such a context and would only bring markets to late 2018 levels (note red box as the target range). The range reflects ~16x S&P 500 12-month forward earnings estimates, as of February 14, adjusted down 10% due to COVID-19. When companies like Visa talk about a couple percentage points taken off of growth rates, one knows that … Read more

Demand Headwinds Refocus Materials Companies

by

Due to weak macroeconomic conditions, as well as tempered demand from China, we’ve seen several materials firms announce structural changes. BHP (click ticker for report: ) announced plans to focus on cost cutting rather than production increases in the wake of weaker iron ore prices and end markets. Rio Tinto (click ticker for report: ), one of our favorite miners due to its attractive cost position, also announced cost cuts in its Australian mining business due to a long-term decline in demand growth from China. The firm thinks economic growth in the country could slow to 5%-6% by 2020, and we think a policy shift in favor of consumption rather than production could occur in the nation. Another diversified miner, … Read more

VBI Ratings Not as Impressive As We Would Have Liked in 2022

by

Image: How the VBI rating system has ranked equities so far this year. By Brian Nelson, CFA At Valuentum, we use the Valuentum Buying Index (VBI) to source ideas into diversified simulated newsletter portfolios, and the VBI may be most applicable to the simulated Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio, where we generally like to include ideas when they register a high VBI rating and remove them when they register a low VBI rating. We always use the VBI in a portfolio setting and never by itself. But what about the Valuentum Buying Index ratings, themselves? How did they “perform” during 2022 in one of the worst years for stock market investors in history? Well, not as spectacular as we would have … Read more

How to Think About Corporate Tax Reform

by

US Congress Is Getting Ready to Pass a Massive ~$2.2 Trillion Fiscal Stimulus Bill

by

Image Shown: US equities have started to recover some of their lost ground as the likelihood that the US Congress will pass a massive ~$2.2 trillion fiscal stimulus and emergency spending package, dubbed the CARES Act, has increased significantly over the past week as seen through the bounce in the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY). President Trump has clearly indicated that he intends to sign such a bill into law as soon as possible, with the US House of Representatives expected to take up the legislation this upcoming Friday morning on March 27. By Callum Turcan On March 25, the US Senate worked late into the night to secure a bipartisan compromise on a massive ~$2.2 trillion fiscal stimulus … Read more

Dividend Increases/Decreases for the Week March 5

by

Below we provide a list of firms that raised their dividends during the week ending March 5. The dividend reports of covered firms on this list will be updated shortly with the new information. To access our dividend reports use the ‘Symbol’ search box in our website header. Firms Raising Their Dividends This Week Aaron’s (AAN): now $0.10 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.04. BHP (BHP): now $2.02/ADS interim dividend, was $1.10/ADS final dividend. Big 5 Sporting Goods (BGFV): now $0.15 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.10. Canadian Natural Resources (CNQ): now CAD 0.47 per share quarterly dividend, was CAD 0.42. Cargojet (CGJTF): now C$0.26 per share quarterly dividend, C$0.23. CMC Materials (CCMP): now $0.46 per share quarterly dividend, was … Read more