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Saying Good Bye to Boeing…For Now

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There probably hasn’t been a better large-cap call than Boeing in the Dow Jones Industrial Average during the past couple years, and we have been all over it. But shares have now “rolled over,” and its valuation isn’t as attractive as it once was, both dynamics pointing to reasons for removal from the simulated Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio. We continue to peruse our coverage universe for an adequate dividend growth replacement. By Brian Nelson, CFA I’ve said this time and time again. Valuentum is low turnover, not high turnover like momentum. We think too-much trading results in excessive commission fees and tax implications. We don’t make many moves in the simulated newsletter portfolios, but sometimes we do make changes. On … Read more

Our Ideas Are Performing Awesome So Far in 2018!!! 6 of the Top 7 of the Dow!

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By Brian Nelson, CFA Every day we think about how we can make things easier for our members. Instead of having to visit multiple links on our website with screens, you now have access to one downloadable Excel file where you can sort and rank how you wish. Of course, you can always find those screens in the newsletters, each and every month, too, but we think a weekly data download is a huge value add to our offering. Can you imagine getting updated data every week for 52 weeks of the year for what we charge, let alone two newsletters, hundreds of reports, commentary, and education material? Wow, right? People keep saying we do too much, but when our … Read more

The “Luck” and “Randomness” of Index Funds

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Please select the image below to download the document. Image shown, page 1 of 14. Tickerized for Valuentum’s coverage universe.

Trump’s Tariffs Ignite Concerns about Protectionism, Rising Input Costs

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Image Source: Michael Vadon President Trump is making true on his promises to protect the domestic steel and aluminum industries. Input costs may move higher for many global industrials, and the long-term implications of protectionist policy will be tested. We’re not expecting retaliation, but we can’t rule it out either. Rising rates remain our primary concern. Kris Rosemann and Brian Nelson, CFA If rising interest rates aren’t enough to give the market heartburn, President Trump announced March 1 that he will impose tariffs on the importation of steel and aluminum to the tune of 25% and 10%, respectively, citing national security concerns. Steel and aluminum stocks rallied hard on the news, but it left many of its industrial brethren under … Read more

Stocks Stage Comeback, US Government Budget Released

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Image shown: The performance of the Dow Jones Industrial Average since September 2017. The market continues to lick its wounds following the sell-off. We’re watching interest rates and technicals for signs where the market may go next. By Kris Rosemann and Brian Nelson, CFA The US 10-year Treasury yield (TLT, TBT) hit a four-year high before the open February 12, suggesting recent volatility in the equity markets is anything but going away in the near term, despite stocks bouncing back from the rough week that ended February 9. Rising interest rates may not create a financial crisis, but it could challenge the widely-held view that stock prices only increase over long-enough periods of time. After all, the past 40-year bull … Read more

Hasbro, Boeing Pop as Market Bounces Back

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Image Source: US Missile Defense Agency. June 22, 2014 – The Missile Defense Agency’s Flight Test 06b Ground-Based Interceptor launches from Vandenberg Air Force Base, Calif. on June 22, 2014. The markets have finally been getting the volatility that we’ve all been waiting for, and we don’t like the idea that the market is now trading more like a cryptocurrency. Granted, it’s important to stay focused over a long-term time horizon, which irons out the ups and downs, but there’s just something about 1,000+ daily swings on the Dow Jones Industrial Average that really doesn’t sit well with us, regardless of what that implies with respect to the percentage change. Can you imagine — All of this over just a … Read more

Boeing!

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Image shown: Boeing’s shares have been rocketing higher of late!  We couldn’t be more pleased with how one of our best ideas for consideration has performed: Boeing! By Kris Rosemann Dividend Gowth Newsletter portfolio idea Boeing (BA) continues its tremendous share-price run of late, hitting all-time highs following its earnings report before market open January 31. The aerospace giant turned in 9% revenue growth on a year-over-year basis, while GAAP earnings per share doubled from the year-ago period to $5.18. Free cash flow remained robust in the full-year 2017, advancing to ~$11.6 billion from ~$7.9 billion in 2016. The company expects operating cash flow to climb to ~$15 billion in 2018 (up from $13.3 billion in 2017), and its revenue … Read more

Bioverativ’s Takeout, Visa’s Surge, and General Electric’s Pain

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From Bioverativ’s takeout to Visa’s stock price surge to General Electric’s continued pain, there’s a lot going on in the stock market. Let’s cover some ground. By Kris Rosemann and Brian Nelson, CFA It’s hard to believe this but our best idea in the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio, Visa (V), is now a $124+ per share stock. We know how to pick ‘em, would you say? We don’t get everything correct, of course, but if you’ve read anything on our website, we can only hope that you’ve witnessed Visa’s meteoric rise. The high end of our updated fair value estimate range for Visa is north of $130 per share. What a wild ride it has been, to say the least, … Read more

2018 Starts Out with a Bang!

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Image Shown: An ETF that measures momentum (MTUM) has done considerably better than the S&P 500 since the beginning of 2017. Among its top 5 holdings are Microsoft (MSFT), Apple (AAPL), Boeing (BA)—newsletter holdings that have had excellent value characteristics along the way. Visa (V) is also included in its top 10 holdings.

Even some the most bullish and optimistic investors have been surprised by the resiliency of today’s market environment. Why does it seem appropriate to remind members that the stock market doesn’t always go straight up with almost no volatility?

The New Theorem of the Stock Market

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President of Investment Research Brian Nelson talks about the new theory of the stock market and explains how syllogisms developed by Noble prize winners and the largest asset managers may not accurately reflect active management at the investor level, which Nelson argues is what matters. Running time: ~15 minutes. To view Valuentum’s updated YouTube page, please see here.  Excerpts from Value and Momentum Within Stocks, Too (Valuentum) Read the paper from the beginning here (pdf).   Tickerized for stocks in the Dow Jones Industrial Average.