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The Most Important Topic in Stock Investing

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President of Equity Research, Brian Nelson, discusses why price vs. value is the paramount consideration in stock investing. Brian Nelson, CFA: This is Brian Nelson from Valuentum Securities. Today, I wanted to talk about a number of investment concepts that I think are absolutely paramount for every investor to know.  The very first concept is price versus value, and this one is paramount to any investment process. Now I’m not just giving this lip service–this is just one of the core concepts of investing, equity investing. The reality of stock investing is that each company has a present value of future free cash flows that it generates, and those future free cash flows roll up to a fair value, the … Read more

Boeing’s Long-Term Strength Intact; Embraer Deal Nearing?

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Image Source: Robert Sullivan Boeing’s first-quarter report was highlighted by stable top-line growth, impressive bottom-line expansion, and increased full-year guidance. The long-term health of its business is supported by its massive backlog of unfulfilled deliveries. By Kris Rosemann Former simulated Dividend Growth Newsletter idea Boeing (BA) turned in a solid first quarter report April 25, and the drivers of its long-term strength remain fully intact as it continues to generate impressive levels of free cash flow and pursue a deal with Embraer’s (ERJ) commercial aviation operations. Revenue in the first quarter grew 6% on a year-over-year basis thanks to higher commercial deliveries, defense contract volume and services growth. The company’s GAAP operating margin in the period expanded more than 2 … Read more

What’s Working (or NOT Working) in Today’s Market?

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Image shown: Crude oil continues to lead gainers while consumer staples, REITs, and energy MLPs continue to get shellacked. By Kris Rosemann The stock market during the first few months of 2018 has been marked by a meaningful return to volatility. Commodity prices from crude oil (USO) to aluminum have had their moments in the sun as material supply/demand imbalances of years past continue to sort themselves out, with the help of a few key players, of course (OPEC member nations in the case of crude oil, and Chinese pollution regulations and US trade policy changes in the aluminum example). Geopolitical uncertainty is keeping both world leaders and investors on their toes as the world continues to navigate multiple denuclearization … Read more

Lockheed’s Shares Still Not Cheap

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Image shown: “Lockheed Martin F-35 Joint Strike Fighter Lightning II test aircraft AA-1 undergoes flight testing over Fort Worth, Texas (source).” We liked Lockheed Martin’s first-quarter 2018 report, and we liked even more that the company raised its full-year outlook for revenue, operating income and earnings per share. Operating cash flow performance was weighed down by pension contributions and backlog didn’t advance in the period, but the backdrop for defense spending remains healthy given ongoing geopolitical tensions. Shares of Lockheed aren’t cheap, however. By Brian Nelson, CFA We were generally pleased with Lockheed Martin’s (LMT) first-quarter 2018 results that showed revenue advancing ~3.8%, and the company leveraging top-line growth into ~20% expansion in business segment operating profit, to $1.31 billion. … Read more

United Tech Ups Guidance; Outlook Bodes Well For Aerospace Supply Chain

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Image Source: hj_west We think activist pressure on United Technologies is unwarranted, and we were highly encouraged by the company’s execution during the first quarter of 2018. Performance at Pratt & Whitney and UTC Aerospace Systems bodes well for the aerospace supply chain. By Brian Nelson, CFA There’s a lot to like about United Technologies (UTX). The company is one of our favorite industrial companies, and we’re probably most fond of its aerospace exposure. We’re against a break-up of the company as we continue to believe United Technologies is on the verge of fantastic top and bottom-line expansion in coming years thanks in part to the burgeoning backlog of unfulfilled deliveries at the airframe makers, Boeing (BA) and Airbus (EADSY). … Read more

ICYMI: Valuentum’s Improved Stock and ETF Web Pages

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Valuentum has rolled out improved stock and ETF web pages on its website valuentum.com/. Now, subscribers can access key proprietary information on the stock and ETF web pages in addition to the customary stock and ETF reports. Dear reader, We have some exciting news that we can’t wait to share with you! At valuentum.com/, we have rolled out new stock and ETF pages that conveniently include a variety of our proprietary metrics from the Dividend Cushion ratio to the Economic Castle rating and beyond! There’s even mouseover functionality so you can learn about how we define the key metrics across our stock-selection and dividend growth methodologies. You’ll still have access to the stock and dividend reports on the landing pages, … Read more

Dividend Growth Portfolio: Adding Two New Gems

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  We’re making some moves in the Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio today. By Brian Nelson, CFA We decided to remove Boeing (BA) and Procter & Gamble (PG) from the Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio recently. You can view the Dividend Growth Newsletter notification log here. We still like both companies a lot. Boeing has a fantastic position and an inherently hedged business portfolio, while Procter & Gamble still retains some of the best consumer brands, even after a rather aggressive brand simplification process. However, Boeing has run too far too fast, and we can’t rule out P&G turning into another General Electric (GE) given its decision, too, to shrink its brand exposure. We’re replacing those two stalwarts with two key players … Read more

Alert: Dropping P&G; Also — Intel’s Dividend Hike; General Motors Puts Up Strong March Sales

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We were reminded of some good news from Intel and General Motors, but the time has come to part with Procter & Gamble. We may have included it in the simulated Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio too long. By Brian Nelson, CFA Hope you all had a warm holiday weekend. It was pleasant this morning to be reminded that simulated newsletter portfolio idea Intel (INTC) increased its dividend 10% when it reported quarterly results January. The dividend will be payable on June 1 to shareholders of record on May 7. The enthusiasm behind our call on Intel and our article in the April edition of the Dividend Growth Newsletter was a bit short-lived given the recent rumors in the PC market, … Read more

Trump Targets China with Tariffs

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Image: Shanghai, China (December 2016), Andrey Filippov Stock markets in the US are slowly building in the prospect of retaliation (a “trade war”) from China, as a result of President Trump’s new tariffs. We maintain our view that the stock market has been frothy for some time, and the recent volatility may just be the beginning of a reversion to normalized valuations, with or without concerns about global trade. By Brian Nelson, CFA The market may be using concerns about a “trade war” as a reason to sell overpriced stock. According to Factset, as of March 16, the forward 12-month price-to-earnings ratio for the S&P 500 is still over 17 times, one turn more than the 5-year average and nearly … Read more

Avoiding Troubled Equities Such as General Electric

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The Valuentum process waits for a stock’s price to be moving higher before it is considered. The stock must not only be undervalued on both a discounted cash-flow basis and relative value basis, in our view, but the market must also believe that its true intrinsic value should be higher, too, as evidenced by a rising share price. The process is symmetrical. We also would wait for a company’s share price to break down before we may consider removing an overpriced stock. In some cases, the information contained in prices can even provide clues when to remove an underpriced stock, as in the case of General Electric. By Brian Nelson, CFA There should be no confusion. General Electric (GE) was … Read more