Bank Valuations and We’re All Market Timers?

President of Investment Research Brian Nelson dives into questions about why an enterprise free cash flow model is not used for banking and insurance entities, and offers up the idea that we all might be market timers. What do you think? Running time: ~14 minutes.

Video: Quants! You’re NOT Measuring VALUE and Nelson’s Theory of Universal Value

President of Investment Research Brian Nelson defines the concept of universal value and shows how quantitative statistical methods are inextricably linked to those of fundamental, financial, business-model related analysis. Value does not exist in respective process vacuums! Value is universal. Find out why. Running time: ~10 minutes.  Tickerized for Valuentum’s stock and ETF coverage universe. Transcript Hi this is Brian Nelson from Valuentum Securities, and this is the tenth edition of a series that I call “Off the Cuff,” where I get in front of the camera and I talk for ten minutes. This is what we have to talk about today. We have to talk about this concept: The Theory of Universal Value. Value does not exist in vacuums … Read more

First Harvey, Now Irma

Image Source: NASA Goddard Space Flight Center. NASA Sees Irma Strengthen to a Category 5 Hurricane. This visible light image of Hurricane Irma was captured by NOAA’s GOES East satellite as it strengthened to a Category 5 hurricane in the Central Atlantic Ocean on Sept. 5 at 7:45 a.m. EDT (1145 UTC). NASA and NOAA satellites have been providing valuable satellite imagery to forecasters at the National Hurricane Center, and revealed that Hurricane Irma has strengthened to a Category 5 hurricane on Sept. 5 around 8 a.m. EDT (1200 UTC). Credits: NASA/NOAA GOES Project. Hurricane season 2017 has not been kind to insurers.  By Brian Nelson, CFA What a disaster-of-a-hurricane-season 2017 is shaping up to be. Our hearts and thoughts go out to … Read more

ETF Analysis: Banks and Financials

Please select the image below to download the report. Tickerized for ETFs under coverage and stocks included in the XLF.

Valuentum’s 3 Breakthroughs in the Field of Finance and More

Valuentum’s President Brian Nelson pauses for a picture before speaking at the CFA Society of Houston in March 2017. By Valuentum Editorial Staff Let’s cover Valuentum’s 3 major breakthroughs in the field of finance. The first one is big and may challenge you to rethink everything you think you know about investing. 1. On a logical framework, Valuentum has debunked John C. Bogle’s landmark syllogism that has paved the way for the concept of index investing. Index investing has been built on a logical shortcoming, whether supported by evidence or not. We think it is important that the investment community know of this. Read (pdf): The “Luck” and “Randomness” of Index Funds (2018), Brian Nelson, CFA See video documentation: /FALLACY_of_Index_Funds To … Read more

The Coming “Goldman Sachs Era”

Valuentum covers recent developments in the financials sector, including hopes for a relaxation of certain prohibitive Dodd-Frank rules that, if repealed, could pave the way for improved economic returns across the banking sector during the Trump administration. A look back at the month of September 2008, and how Goldman Sachs may very well shape the financial markets during the next few years are two other areas in the piece. Financials stocks have come roaring back since Trump was elected the 45th President of the United States. We’ve participated. By Brian Nelson, CFA It’s been more than 8 years now. The month of September 2008 shaped my view of the financials and banking sector more than any other month possibly could–The … Read more

5 Shocking Stock Market Predictions for 2017

Image Source: Claudia Dea  Valuentum: 2017 Is the Year of Evangeline Adams By Brian Nelson, CFA “Entrepreneurs are never satisfied. They want to do things better. They strive for perfection and use all the ingenuity to their command to achieve it.” – J.W. Marriott My Inbox Was Overflowing with Kindness Your positive replies to my last email, “Words Cannot Express How I Feel” were simply incredible. My inbox was flooded with so many emails, so many kind words. There were so many that I’m still working through them. If you haven’t received a personal reply, plan on getting one. You’re very important to me. It’s quite possible that I may very well be the luckiest man to have such wonderful … Read more

Podcast: Why ETFs and Roasting the Banks

The Valuentum analyst team talks about why we don’t like the business models of banking entities, why they are currently destroying economic value, but also why the team includes exposure in the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio. What gives? Find out in this ~9 minute podcast. If you cannot view the video, please view the transcript that follows. Tickerized for holdings in the exchange traded funds, XLF and KBE, and for various financials-oriented ETFs.  Kris Rosemann: Hello and welcome to the Valuentum Securities podcast. My name is Kris Rosemann Associate Investment Analyst at Valuentum. With me is Chris Araos and Brian Nelson President of Equity Research and ETF Analysis at Valuentum. Today, we are going to have a quick discussion over … Read more

Part III: Nelson’s Evaluation of Berkshire’s 2015 Annual Report

<< Go back to Part I << Go back to Part II By Brian Nelson, CFA It’s always a wonder to open up on the Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A, BRK.B) annual report for a large variety of different reasons, but every time I do I can’t help but ponder yesteryear through the table on page 2, “Berkshire’s Performance vs. the S&P 500.” I think I have a unique knack for imagining what might have been if today’s standards would have been applied to Berkshire in the 1970s, perhaps in some ways how many baseball fans may think about whether the legends of the past would have put up the type of numbers that they did if presented with today’s dynamics. For … Read more

Debt, Debt and More Debt

Image Source: Michael Fleshman Many readers may be familiar with the rhetoric of the Presidential Election Cycle of 2016 and Democratic hopeful Bernie Sanders’ view on making “college tuition free and debt free.” You can take a read of the 6 steps Bernie will take as president to make college debt-free here. Many may find his last point rather intrusive to the heartbeat of the American economy and the driver behind innovation and standard-of-living improvements, but we’ll leave that conversation for another day. But what’s the shocking statistic, right? Get this – and I hope you are sitting down. According to an article by the Journal, “more than 40% of Americans who borrowed from the government’s main student-loan program aren’t … Read more