AAPL

Apple’s Quarter Brings a Bushel of Positive News

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Image Source: Aaron Yoo Apple’s strength was on full display in its second quarter of fiscal 2018 as it beat expectations on a number of quarterly measures and delivered a significant dividend increase. The company remains one of our favorites on the market today. Our fair value estimate currently sits at $201 per share. By Kris Rosemann What more can we say about Apple (AAPL) after a quarter in which it beat consensus expectations on revenue, earnings per share, iPhone and iPad shipments, and Services revenue, as well as had the ability to raise its quarterly dividend by 16% and authorize an additional $100 billion for share repurchases? We reiterated our positive long-term view on Apple on April 20, “Reiterating … Read more

What’s Working (or NOT Working) in Today’s Market?

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Image shown: Crude oil continues to lead gainers while consumer staples, REITs, and energy MLPs continue to get shellacked. By Kris Rosemann The stock market during the first few months of 2018 has been marked by a meaningful return to volatility. Commodity prices from crude oil (USO) to aluminum have had their moments in the sun as material supply/demand imbalances of years past continue to sort themselves out, with the help of a few key players, of course (OPEC member nations in the case of crude oil, and Chinese pollution regulations and US trade policy changes in the aluminum example). Geopolitical uncertainty is keeping both world leaders and investors on their toes as the world continues to navigate multiple denuclearization … Read more

Reiterating Our Positive View on Apple

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We continue to include Apple in both newsletter portfolios. Very few companies have the balance-sheet strength and free-cash-flow generation that Apple does. By Brian Nelson, CFA Sell-side analysts are getting nervous about Apple (AAPL), but we’re reiterating our long-term positive opinion on the iPhone maker. We expect a lot of “noise” through the course of 2018 as chatter regarding iPhone unit expectations intensifies and concerns about a US trade war with China ebb and flow. We expect traders to be product-cycle-focused, which may only magnify the inherent volatility of the equity, but we maintain our emphasis on core fundamental analysis, namely the health and sustainability of Apple’s future free cash flow generation, the composition of its balance sheet, and the … Read more

ICYMI: Valuentum’s Improved Stock and ETF Web Pages

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Valuentum has rolled out improved stock and ETF web pages on its website valuentum.com/. Now, subscribers can access key proprietary information on the stock and ETF web pages in addition to the customary stock and ETF reports. Dear reader, We have some exciting news that we can’t wait to share with you! At valuentum.com/, we have rolled out new stock and ETF pages that conveniently include a variety of our proprietary metrics from the Dividend Cushion ratio to the Economic Castle rating and beyond! There’s even mouseover functionality so you can learn about how we define the key metrics across our stock-selection and dividend growth methodologies. You’ll still have access to the stock and dividend reports on the landing pages, … Read more

IBM’s Free Cash Flow Short of Expected Annual Pace

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Image Source: andrew cooke With other fantastic ideas in technology, we see no reason to be interested in IBM’s shares. By Brian Nelson, CFA Readers that are interested in bottom-fishing in IBM’s (IBM) shares may have a far greater risk appetite than we do. IBM is no longer the “Big Blue (Chip)” that it once was, and while its first-quarter results for fiscal year 2018 weren’t bad, its outlook wasn’t what the market had been expecting. The $0.06 quarterly beat on the bottom line during its first quarter of 2018 didn’t translate into raised guidance for 2018, with IBM reiterating its non-GAAP diluted earnings per share target of at least $13.80, with the GAAP-equivalent mark coming in at $11.58. Expectations … Read more

Trump Knocks Air Out of Amazon; Intel Investors Overreact to Apple News

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Only fools, or worse, are saying that our money losing Post Office makes money with Amazon. THEY LOSE A FORTUNE, and this will be changed. Also, our fully tax paying retailers are closing stores all over the country…not a level playing field! — Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) April 2, 2018 President Trump continues to move markets, and his messages about Amazon haven’t gone unnoticed. Apple seems to be targeting wider gross margins in coming years, as it looks to bring in-house a part of its supply chain. Intel’s shares overreact. By Brian Nelson, CFA President Trump seems to want to put Amazon (AMZN) in its place, and his recent comments have been a source of fear for many investors of … Read more

Why Some Investors Fail — Worms!

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Image Source: crabchick. 

When you read our research, we’re not just providing financial metrics — Valuentum is striving to provide an answer to the most important question in investing: what is a company worth? Though there are varying opinions about which underlying factor is the most important investment consideration, at the end of the day, the process of valuation collects every investment consideration to provide a conclusion. It is the answer after all other considerations, the final outcome of analysis. It is why we say that investors that don’t pay attention to valuation may be doomed to fail…eventually. Not seeking valuation is not seeking the answer.

Avoiding Troubled Equities Such as General Electric

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The Valuentum process waits for a stock’s price to be moving higher before it is considered. The stock must not only be undervalued on both a discounted cash-flow basis and relative value basis, in our view, but the market must also believe that its true intrinsic value should be higher, too, as evidenced by a rising share price. The process is symmetrical. We also would wait for a company’s share price to break down before we may consider removing an overpriced stock. In some cases, the information contained in prices can even provide clues when to remove an underpriced stock, as in the case of General Electric. By Brian Nelson, CFA There should be no confusion. General Electric (GE) was … Read more

Our Ideas Are Performing Awesome So Far in 2018!!! 6 of the Top 7 of the Dow!

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By Brian Nelson, CFA Every day we think about how we can make things easier for our members. Instead of having to visit multiple links on our website with screens, you now have access to one downloadable Excel file where you can sort and rank how you wish. Of course, you can always find those screens in the newsletters, each and every month, too, but we think a weekly data download is a huge value add to our offering. Can you imagine getting updated data every week for 52 weeks of the year for what we charge, let alone two newsletters, hundreds of reports, commentary, and education material? Wow, right? People keep saying we do too much, but when our … Read more

The “Luck” and “Randomness” of Index Funds

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Please select the image below to download the document. Image shown, page 1 of 14. Tickerized for Valuentum’s coverage universe.