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Buffett’s Berkshire, Corporate Buybacks on Pace for Record; Lithium, Steel Prices on the Move

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Image Source: Berkshire Hathaway, Shareholder Letter (2017). “Fifteen common stock investments at year end that had the largest market value.” “The less the prudence with which others conduct their affairs, the greater the prudence with which we must conduct our own.” – Warren Buffett, Shareholder Letter (2017) By Kris Rosemann and Brian Nelson, CFA Simulated Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio holding Berkshire Hathaway’s (BRK.A, BRK.B) fourth-quarter results didn’t disappoint, and commentary from the Oracle of Omaha, Warren Buffett, was at its finest in the company’s Shareholder Letter. The letter was chock full of insights, from an emphasis on normalized earnings power, to buying stocks at a “sensible purchase price,” to warning about the dangers of “purchasing frenzy” with respect to M&A, … Read more

Stocks Stage Comeback, US Government Budget Released

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Image shown: The performance of the Dow Jones Industrial Average since September 2017. The market continues to lick its wounds following the sell-off. We’re watching interest rates and technicals for signs where the market may go next. By Kris Rosemann and Brian Nelson, CFA The US 10-year Treasury yield (TLT, TBT) hit a four-year high before the open February 12, suggesting recent volatility in the equity markets is anything but going away in the near term, despite stocks bouncing back from the rough week that ended February 9. Rising interest rates may not create a financial crisis, but it could challenge the widely-held view that stock prices only increase over long-enough periods of time. After all, the past 40-year bull … Read more

What Goes Up… Well, You Know the Rest

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Groundhog Day proved to be painful for the markets. Though a few companies disappointed with respect to their earnings reports, the real reason for the sell-off is two-fold: the market is overpriced by most metrics and Treasury rates, used within valuation frameworks, are rising. By Brian Nelson, CFA Many were surprised by the market’s big fall during the trading session February 2, 2018. We’re not. We wrote up a recent piece that said even a 1%-2% decline may be nothing when it comes to truly evaluating historic bear markets, which can zap as much as 40% of wealth in just a couple years, “2018 Starts Out with a Bang!:” Though we continue to believe that readers should exercise caution due … Read more

The 10-year US Treasury Yield, Trump and Trade and More

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We continue to pay very close attention to the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield as it has implications on borrowing costs and discount rates across valuation methodologies. By Kris Rosemann The 10-year US Treasury yield (TLT, TBT) continues its recent climb, hitting its highest level in nearly four years as of the morning of January 29, and some equity bears have begun to wonder when the soaring stock market will begin to take notice. With central banks around the globe expected to continue cutting back on bond purchasing activity, yields may be poised for a prolonged rise and equity prices could be headed for a similar fate as bond prices. It’s important not to forget, “Why the Fed Matters.” President Trump … Read more

2018 Starts Out with a Bang!

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Image Shown: An ETF that measures momentum (MTUM) has done considerably better than the S&P 500 since the beginning of 2017. Among its top 5 holdings are Microsoft (MSFT), Apple (AAPL), Boeing (BA)—newsletter holdings that have had excellent value characteristics along the way. Visa (V) is also included in its top 10 holdings.

Even some the most bullish and optimistic investors have been surprised by the resiliency of today’s market environment. Why does it seem appropriate to remind members that the stock market doesn’t always go straight up with almost no volatility?

The New Theorem of the Stock Market

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President of Investment Research Brian Nelson talks about the new theory of the stock market and explains how syllogisms developed by Noble prize winners and the largest asset managers may not accurately reflect active management at the investor level, which Nelson argues is what matters. Running time: ~15 minutes. To view Valuentum’s updated YouTube page, please see here.  Excerpts from Value and Momentum Within Stocks, Too (Valuentum) Read the paper from the beginning here (pdf).   Tickerized for stocks in the Dow Jones Industrial Average.

Microsoft: A Dividend Growth Giant

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Image Source: Microsoft. 

Microsoft is no longer a tech dinosaur. Estimates suggest it is beating Amazon at its own game. We’re huge fans of Microsoft’s free cash flow generation and balance-sheet health and what that means for the dividend. There’s not a lot to dislike about Microsoft, and while the risks are many, few company’s have a stronger business model.

Mutual Fund Tragedy, ROE, and the Time Horizon

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Comparisons between growth versus value stocks may never go away, but President of Investment Research Brian Nelson explains why you should know better than to think stocks can easily be divided up as such. He talks about this, as well as the pitfalls of ROE (return on equity) and how to think about the time horizon. Running time: ~10 minutes.

Video: Quants! You’re NOT Measuring VALUE and Nelson’s Theory of Universal Value

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President of Investment Research Brian Nelson defines the concept of universal value and shows how quantitative statistical methods are inextricably linked to those of fundamental, financial, business-model related analysis. Value does not exist in respective process vacuums! Value is universal. Find out why. Running time: ~10 minutes.  Tickerized for Valuentum’s stock and ETF coverage universe. Transcript Hi this is Brian Nelson from Valuentum Securities, and this is the tenth edition of a series that I call “Off the Cuff,” where I get in front of the camera and I talk for ten minutes. This is what we have to talk about today. We have to talk about this concept: The Theory of Universal Value. Value does not exist in vacuums … Read more

Shopping for Income Within Retail in a Digital World

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Image Source: Mike Mozart The 2017 holiday shopping season has shown that e-commerce has never been stronger and it will only continue to grow. But there is still potential for income generation among more traditional retailers. Investors must be tremendously discerning in this area, however, as margin, and ultimately free cash flow, pressures remain prevalent. We like Walmart, Target, Costco as income ideas in retail, but TJX Companies and Best Buy may be worth a look. We’re avoiding the department stores and teen retail like the plague, regardless of their Dividend Cushion ratios. By Kris Rosemann and Brian Nelson, CFA What an incredible time we’re living in. For those that study history, the US’ pressure on other countries like China … Read more