YUM

Chipotle’s Fourth Quarter 2022 Results Not Bad, Has Incredible Long-Term Unit Restaurant Potential

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Image Source: Valuentum By Brian Nelson, CFA Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio holding Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) reported solid fourth-quarter earnings results February 7, but they came up short relative to more optimistic consensus expectations. Total revenue advanced 11.2% in the quarter thanks to solid comparable restaurant sales expansion of 5.6%. Consensus, however, was looking for 7% comparable restaurant sales expansion in the period. We’re not reading too much into the miss. During the fourth quarter, the burrito maker’s operating margin leapt ~550 basis points, to 13.6%, and its restaurant level operating margin came in at 24% in the quarter, which was up 380 basis points from the same period a year ago. Adjusted diluted earnings per share was $8.29 in the … Read more

Our Reports on Stocks in the Discretionary Spending Industry

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Dividend Yield: Estimated on a forward-looking annualized basis. VBI: The Valuentum Buying Index, a timeliness indicator that overlays a price-to-fair-value estimate consideration. Fair Value Estimate: Derived by Valuentum’s enterprise valuation process. Dividend Cushion ratio: A ratio assessing the health of the dividend (the higher, the better). Data as of the date of this article. Individual company reports may have been updated subsequent to the publishing of this article, so please download a company’s stock and dividend report for its latest information and data. Note: The data in the tables of each of the below companies’ respective stock pages is updated the weekend after the publishing of this update. Please click on a company name below to view the corresponding equity … Read more

Exclusive Call: What To Expect From Valuentum in 2023

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Video: 2022 was a successful year by almost every measure from the simulated Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio and simulated Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio to the simulated High Yield Dividend Newsletter portfolio and Exclusive publication and beyond. There were some disappointments in 2022, of course, but the year showed the value of a Valuentum membership. Join President of Investment Research Brian Nelson on this year’s Exclusive conference call to learn what to expect from Valuentum in 2023. Cheers! Transcript President of Investment Research Brian Nelson: Happy Holidays everyone! I hope that you are enjoying this special time of year with family and friends, and I wish you all a wonderful 2023! I just wanted to take a few minutes to recap … Read more

2022 Showcased the Value of a Valuentum Membership

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In bull markets, almost everyone is a winner. But 2022 was different. This year was a big test for Valuentum, and we passed with flying colors. We delivered across the board during the year from ideas in the Exclusive publication and the efficacy of the dividend growth methodology to the resilience of high yield ideas and simulated Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio relative performance–despite setbacks from Meta Platforms, PayPal, and beyond. Tune in to the latest video installment from Valuentum. Thanks for listening! Tickerized for holdings in the SPY. ——————————————— About Our Name But how, you will ask, does one decide what [stocks are] “attractive”? Most analysts feel they must choose between two approaches customarily thought to be in opposition: “value” … Read more

Market Whipsaw: Crypto Collapse and a Lower-than-Expected Inflation Print

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Image: Uncertainty in the cryptocurrency markets has surged with concerns over the liquidity of a key exchange. Investors are weighing the spillover effects of crypto with the view that the pace of inflation may have peaked. — By Brian Nelson, CFA — The U.S. equity market continues to be highly volatile as it whipsaws between concerns over the health and sustainability of cryptocurrency and optimism over lower-than-feared inflation readings. We maintain our bearish/defensive stance on equities, but at the same time, we continue to be “fully-invested” across the simulated newsletter portfolios in part because we don’t want to miss out on days like today, November 10, when the markets are soaring ~2.5%-5.5% depending on which index you are monitoring. We’re also … Read more

Something New!

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Hi everyone: To stay true to our mission, you’ll find something new regarding our methodology. In the coming weeks, you’ll see this table in our work going forward. We just wanted to let you know. We appreciate your membership very much!   ——————————————— About Our Name But how, you will ask, does one decide what [stocks are] “attractive”? Most analysts feel they must choose between two approaches customarily thought to be in opposition: “value” and “growth,”…We view that as fuzzy thinking…Growth is always a component of value [and] the very term “value investing” is redundant.                          — Warren Buffett, Berkshire Hathaway annual report, 1992 At Valuentum, we take Buffett’s thoughts one step further. We think the best opportunities arise from an understanding of … Read more

McDonald’s, Chipotle’s Third-Quarter Results Were Solid, Strong Comp Performance

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Image Source: Valuentum By Brian Nelson, CFA On a day where a high-profile stock such as Meta Platforms (META) is down more than 20%, it’s difficult to focus on the positives. But we are – we recently replaced Meta Platforms with McDonald’s (MCD) in the simulated Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio, and we’re not looking back. McDonald’s is popping nearly 4% during the trading session October 27, and we continue to point to the high end of the fair value estimate range for shares as a reasonable intermediate term target ($300 per share). We’ve been quite concerned about the macro environment during the past several months as inflation changed from a positive catalyst to business pricing and strong equity returns in … Read more

Announcing Valuentum’s Customer Appreciation Day Winners!

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In no particular order — the five winners… As a Chief Investment Strategist that oversees a significant amount of assets, it is vital to have unbiased research that we can lean on for decision making. Brian and the Valuentum team help provide a disciplined and fundamental approach to stock analysis without the typical Wall Street bias or conflicts of interest. The value we get on a monthly basis for having this detailed thought analysis and wise long-term thinking greatly outweighs the cost. We are very happy to have them on our short list of management we trust.  – Stephen H. (October 2022) —– I’d like you to know what my takeaways are from your research: 1) Be wary of capital … Read more

New Payment Option! Valuentum Research Update!

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Hi everyone: — We’re excited to say that we’re adding additional payment flexibility at Valuentum. — Many members have expressed interest in paying via other providers, and we have added Square to the mix. You can use credit or debit card or bank (ACH) to pay via invoice. — With all of the goings-on in the financial technology and payments space, we wanted to continue to provide members options to pay their memberships how they want and through who they want. You can always reach out to us at info@valuentum.com. — You’ll notice that we’ve also tightened our focus at Valuentum during the past 12-24 months in advance of what has certainly become a more difficult 2022 than even some … Read more

Recent Fair Value Estimate Updates

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Image Source: Valuentum By Brian Nelson, CFA  Our work is always forward-looking in nature, consistent with the markets, which drive pricing and valuation on the basis of future expectations. 2022 has no doubt been a difficult year for many an investor across asset classes, not just equities. Perhaps the biggest insight provided by the Valuentum analyst team for this year came in the second edition of the book Value Trap, “Renowned Investor Brian Nelson Publishes Second Edition of Best Indie Book Award Winner Value Trap: Theory of Universal Valuation,” but such an insight has often been reiterated on our website and through the newsletters, too. To put it bluntly: We became significantly worried about the diversification benefits of the 60/40 stock/bond … Read more