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Valuentum: Now Bearish, We’ve Been Here Every Step of the Way

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Valuentum Has Been Here Every Step of the Way   From the COVID-19 top in February 2020 to the COVID-19 bottom to the massive bull run through the end of 2021, we’ve been here for you.    2022 started out to be a rough year, catching many by surprise.   But Valuentum stayed positive. When the markets headed south in June, Valuentum stood its ground. On June 14, Valuentum said that “we still believe stocks could make a “huge rebound” in the near term.   We reiterated our views a few days later and on June 19, we said that “investors shouldn’t panic during this bear market” and that “stocks remain an attractive proposition at the moment and a very attractive consideration … Read more

Top Research and Ideas You May Have Missed

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Is Quant Value Giving Intrinsic Value Investors a Bad Name? Surely, you don’t believe Warren Buffett’s “style” is out of favor? By Brian Nelson, CFA I need to make sure that you’re aware of something very important. The media and perhaps many investment professionals define the concept of “value” as companies with low price-to-book (P/B) ratios, and the concept of “growth” as companies with high price-to-book ratios. This definition of “value” and “growth” and their corresponding returns have been magnified in writings throughout the media and across quantitative research, even in prestigious journals. Warren Buffett has been rallying against most quantitative applications and how “growth” and “value” are defined in popular media and quantitative research for decades.  Here’s one of the Oracle’s most … Read more

Our Thoughts on Big Pharma’s Calendar Fourth Quarter Earnings Reports

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Image Source: Merck & Company Inc – Fourth Quarter of 2021 IR Earnings Presentation By Callum Turcan In Alphabetical Order by Ticker: ABBV, GILD, LLY, MRK We include the Health Care Select Sector SPDR Fund ETF (XLV) in the Best Ideas Newsletter and Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolios to gain broad exposure to the health care sector. Instead of betting on one entity’s pipeline (which could be hit or miss), we like the exposure to lots and lots of “shots on goal” when it comes to the vast collective pipeline in the XLV ETF. We wrote up the calendar fourth-quarter results of the top two weightings in the XLV ETF, United Health (UNH) and Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) here and here, … Read more

Dow Laggard Walgreens Boots Alliance Yields North of 5%; Has Raised Dividend for 47 Consecutive Years

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Image: Walgreens Boots Alliance’s shares have been pummeled during 2022. Image Source: TradingView By Brian Nelson, CFA When Walgreens Boots Alliance (WBA)–forward estimated dividend yield of ~5.3%– reported first-quarter fiscal 2023 results January 5, operating performance wasn’t pretty. Sales from continuing operations dropped 1.5% in the quarter, while adjusted earnings per share fell 30.8% to $1.16 per share due to weakness at AllianceRX Walgreens from difficult comps related to COVID-19 vaccines. Its predecessor company, Walgreen Co., used to be a clean “story.” Then, the firm bought Alliance Boots several years ago, and shares have languished for the better part of a decade now, after completing that transaction. Dealmaking, a dwindling stake in AmerisourceBergen (ABC) and liabilities related to the opioid … Read more

GoodRx Has Potential Capital Appreciation Upside But Long-Term Threats Loom

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Image Source: GoodRx Holdings Inc – December 2020 IR Presentation Executive Summary: GoodRx Holdings Inc is a disrupter in the US pharmacy space, and the company went public in September 2020. The firm’s digitally-oriented prescription drug pricing platform generates strong normalized operating income and allows for an impressive cash flow profile. Supported by its pristine balance sheet, GoodRx has the financial firepower to expand into adjacent businesses to further extend its growth runway. While meaningful competitive threats are a concern, such as those posed by Amazon Inc entering the online pharmacy space, GoodRx has significant competitive advantages over its peers and benefits from the network effect. The company’s active monthly user base has grown at an impressive clip during the … Read more

The Dividend Cushion Ratio: Unadjusted Is Less Subjective, Adjusted Is More Subjective

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  Image Source: Mike Lawrence Question: I’m a subscriber. I’m looking at your Dividend Report for Enterprise Product Partners (EPD). It says your Valuentum Adjusted Dividend Cushion ratio for EPD is 1.8 (a ratio that includes future expected proceeds from capital raising endeavors in the coming years), but several lines below it says the Unadjusted Dividend Cushion ratio, which is your regular normal ratio (a ratio that does not include future expected proceeds from capital raising endeavors in the coming years), is 0.22. Please explain the difference between the two ratios, and what is considered a good ratio for the Unadjusted Dividend Cushion ratio, what is an excellent score, what is neutral and what is poor? Also, how much relative importance should … Read more

Dividend Increases/Decreases for the Week Ending July 15

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Below we provide a list of firms that raised/lowered their dividends during the week ending July 15. The dividend reports of covered firms on this list will be updated shortly with the new information. To access our dividend reports use the ‘Symbol’ search box in our website header. Firms Raising Their Dividends This Week Antero Midstream (AM): now $0.25 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.235. Basset Furniture (BSET): now $0.10 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.09. Ciner Resources (CINR): now $0.567 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.564. Cummins (CMI): now $1.025 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.975. Discover Financial Services (DFS): now $0.30 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.28. Duke Energy (DUK): now $0.855 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.825. … Read more

The “Hierarchy” of Valuentum Idea Generation

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Let’s talk about this hierarchy of idea generation in this note. —  A version of this article was sent to members previously. New content has been added.  — Note: We continue to work to optimize the signal-to-noise ratio in our work, and we are evaluating expanding our update cycle to half-year periods to better bolster the signaling aspects of the Valuentum Buying Index (VBI). In our widely-read case study (see here), the VBI showed its ability to rank equity returns over a forward 12-month period, and we think a migration to less-frequent updating may make the most sense to better capture the forward-looking dynamics of the system. We think this will help weed out false breakouts and other noise that could be harmful. You shouldn’t think of … Read more

ICYMI — Video: Will Hasty Policy Facilitate the Next Leg Down, or Do We Have It Coming Anyway?

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President of Investment Research and award-winning author of Value Trap: Theory of Universal Valuation Brian Nelson explains how US policymakers are stuck between a rock and a hard place, and how the market may be factoring in too high of a probability of a return to normalcy before 2021. This and more in the latest video report. Summary Make sure you review Value Trap on Amazon. Do so here. We think those that bought equities near the bottom of this swoon may be looking to take profits at present levels. The market is currently reflecting an 80%-85% probability of a return to normalcy before 2021, which we believe is too high at this time. Our main concern is that government … Read more