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ALERT: Adding Market Crash ‘Protection,’ Removing MSFT, BKNG

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Image source: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.  ALERT: Adding Market Crash ‘Protection,’ Removing MSFT, BKNG — Changes to newsletter portfolios — We’re adding out-of-the-money put options to both the Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio and Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio. — We’re removing Microsoft from the Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio. — We’re removing Booking Holdings from the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio. — By Brian Nelson, CFA — We’re making some moves in the newsletter portfolios today.  — The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DIA) is currently indicated down 900+ points in pre-market trading during the session Monday, February 24. We laid out a thesis where the US markets could experience a “crash,” and we encourage you to read that take here, “Is a … Read more

Is a Stock Market Crash Coming? — Coronavirus Update and P/E Ratios

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Image Source: World Health Organization, Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), Situation Report — 32 We don’t think this is the environment to put new capital to work, and we remain highly cautious of what COVID-19 means for global economic growth not just in the first quarter of 2020 but for the rest of this year (maybe longer). Right now, the US markets are not really factoring in anything related to COVID-19, and perhaps may be adjusting to China’s stimulus in artificially propping up the markets as if the outbreak is somehow a “positive thing.” With the S&P 500 trading at 19.0 forward earnings estimates–estimates that are likely too high given the evidence we are seeing with respect to a slowdown due … Read more

Resetting Your Mental Model

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Image Source: affen ajlfe A version of this article was originally published on our website October 6, 2013. Having the right mental model and using the right information can be the reason why you win or lose in investing. “What is the definition of timeliness? Many believe it is getting information to investors as quickly as possible after an event, or updating something every single day or week for immaterial information. I believe in a different definition of timeliness. I believe timeliness is using all information available in a mosaic approach to accurately predict the event before it even happens. Take Kinder Morgan as the latest example. We were the only ones predicting what was going to happen before it did. To investors, … Read more

General Mills’ Pet Segment Performs Well

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Image Source: General Mills Inc – Second Quarter Fiscal 2020 Earnings IR Presentation By Callum Turcan On December 18, General Mills Inc (GIS) reported second quarter results for its fiscal 2020 (period ended November 24, 2019), which saw shares of GIS rise by almost 2% during normal trading hours that day as investors were excited over its strong performance of its pet food sales. Please note General Mills completed its $8.0 billion all-cash acquisition of Blue Buffalo Pet Products Inc in April 2018, and investors have been eagerly awaiting the revenue growth stimulus that deal was projected to generate. Shares of GIS are trading near the very top of our fair value range estimate and yield 3.7% as of this … Read more

Smucker Cuts Guidance with Weakness Widespread

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Image Source: J. M. Smucker Company – IR Presentation By Callum Turcan J. M. Smucker Company (SJM) is known for its peanut butter (sold under such brands as Jif and Adams), jams (including its namesake Smucker’s offering and Knott’s Berry Farm products), coffees (such as Folgers and Café Bustelo), pet products (including Nature’s Recipe and Meow Mix), and more. The firm posted first quarter earnings for FY2020 (quarter ended July 31) on August 27 that upset the market and sent shares down more than 8% that day. Smucker’s revenue and earnings both missed estimates while management lowered the firm’s full year guidance for fiscal 2020. Smucker now expects its FY2020 EPS to come in at $8.35-$8.55/share, down from $8.45-$8.65/share previously. … Read more

A Tale of Two Big Agricultural Industries: Protein Producers Win and Farm Equipment Manufacturers Lose After Recent USDA Report

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Image Shown: The tale of two big agricultural companies in one chart, with shares of poultry producer Sanderson Farms Inc (SAFM) shooting up on Monday, August 12, as chicken feed prices fell after a recent USDA report (which sent corn prices sharply lower) while shares of agricultural equipment manufacturer AGCO Corporation (AGCO) tanked as the market priced in continued pressure on US farm incomes and the dynamic impact that has on demand for farm equipment. By Callum Turcan On August 12, the USDA released a report that stated US farmers had planted more corn than expected at 90 million acres (2.6% higher than consensus estimates) and that forecasted corn yields were also higher than expected at 169.5 bushels an acre … Read more

Kraft-Heinz Blows Up, More Updates!

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Image shown: The rating history of Kraft-Heinz (KHC). Valuentum members were warned in advance of this pricey equity in 2016/2017, and the VBI rating never advanced past 5 since then after registering a 1, the worst rating, on two separate occasions. Dear members, I wanted to first of all welcome our new members. There have been a lot of new ones during the past few weeks. Thank you. The buzz might be coming from the new book launch, Value Trap. If you haven’t read the book yet, please do so here. Members can get the pdf digital download today at 25% off. For new members, reading this book is simply par for the course to get a feel for how we look at … Read more

Valuentum Stock Screeners

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This article was sent to members via email December 29. That email can be accessed at the link that follows this article. By Brian Nelson, CFA Hi everyone, I wanted to provide an update with respect to Valuentum’s stock screeners. We believe our stock screeners are among the most robust when it comes to providing forward-looking data, or data that is important with respect to the investment decision-making process. We publish screens in each of the monthly newsletters, but we also provide a basic weekly screener for download on the left column of the website, “Download Weekly Stock Screener (xls) — login required.”   We also have other products. The more robust DataScreener, for example, is part of the quarterly Financial … Read more

Market Mayhem — Alerts for Members

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During these extremely volatile times, it’s important to stay focused. On December 15, we informed all of our members to “Pay Attention.” Shortly thereafter, we notified members of the potential for a stock market technical breakdown. This morning, we offered a pre-market briefing about the importance of thinking about portfolio protection. For Best Ideas Newsletter and Dividend Growth Newsletter members: http://campaign.r20.constantcontact.com/render?preview=true&m=1110817109903&ca=e2406cd6-c113-4344-8731-493f33fc44a4&id=preview For High Yield Dividend Newsletter members: http://campaign.r20.constantcontact.com/render?preview=true&m=1110817109903&ca=b3ba530f-38b3-489a-ac96-2961dca89c6b&id=preview For Exclusive members: http://campaign.r20.constantcontact.com/render?preview=true&m=1110817109903&ca=ba6d90c0-4433-48b2-9b8a-aac4ddf9006e&id=preview We’re here for any questions. Please just let us know how we can help! Kind regards, Brian Nelson, CFA  brian@valuentum.com

Consumer Staples Earnings Roundup

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Image Source: Mike Mozart Let’s take a look at the earnings reports of some of the largest consumer staples companies. Margin performance left a good deal to be desired across the space as transportation and raw material costs are largely on the rise, and organic growth trends could be better. Companies included: Kellogg, Kraft Heinz, Kimberly-Clark, and Colgate Palmolive. By Kris Rosemann Macroeconomic uncertainty stemming from geopolitical tensions and potentially slowing economic growth in emerging markets have played a role in stagnant top-line growth for consumer staples entities of late, and ongoing pricing and promotional battles are not likely to go away anytime soon as the proliferation of the convenience of online shopping has brought about a new era in … Read more