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Video: We Expect A Huge Market Flush! Looking to “Raise” Incremental Cash

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Video: Valuentum’s Brian Nelson, CFA, breaks down the current market environment, highlighting reasons for the poor market sentiment driven by “tapped out” consumers and investors alike. He expects a big market “flush,” and a challenging next couple years but remains a big fan of stocks for the long haul. Valuentum continues to seek to “raise” incremental cash in the simulated newsletter portfolios as it prepares to weather the storm. Video length: ~10 minutes. –——— Tickerized for holdings in the SPY. Brian Nelson owns shares in SPY, SCHG, QQQ, DIA, VOT, BITO, and IWM. Valuentum owns SPY, SCHG, QQQ, VOO, and DIA. Brian Nelson’s household owns shares in HON, DIS, HAS, NKE. Some of the other securities written about in this … Read more

Valuentum’s Unmatched Product Suite

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Hi everyone! — We continue to be huge believers in the concept of enterprise valuation, which emphasizes the key cash-based sources of intrinsic value–net cash on the balance sheet and strong and growing future expected free cash flows. Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) and Alphabet Inc. (GOOG) remain two of the most underpriced ideas on the market today, and we remain huge fans of their tremendous long-term investment prospects. — There are a couple things worth reminding readers, however. A good relevant rule of thumb I learned early in my career working for my first portfolio manager is that a stock’s return in the near term is driven roughly 40% by the market, 30% by the industry it operates in, and 30% … Read more

Nelson: I Have Been Wrong About the Prospect of Near-Term Inflationary-Driven Earnings Tailwinds

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Transcript During the past several weeks, we’ve grown increasingly concerned about the health of consumer-tied entities across not only the consumer staples but also the consumer discretionary spaces. Many consumer staples entities, while raising prices, aren’t raising them fast enough to drive operating-income and bottom-line expansion, while many consumer-discretionary companies are facing higher freight and logistics costs and weaker performance in China, perhaps best revealed by Nike’s most recently-reported quarter, where inventory advanced 23% compared to the prior-year period. The tell-tale sign about the health of the consumer may be Amazon (AMZN) Prime Day, which is coming up on July 12-13, but based on many of the reports we’ve monitored this past earnings season, even if sales are strong on … Read more

AT&T and Warner Bros. Discovery Go Their Separate Ways

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Image Shown: AT&T Inc is spending heavily to grow its 5G wireless network while expanding the reach of its broadband footprint. Image Source: AT&T Inc – March 2022 Analyst & Investor Day Event Presentation By Callum Turcan On April 8, AT&T Inc (T) closed the merger of the WarnerMedia business with Discovery to create a powerhouse in the media and entertainment industry after then-Discovery shareholders voted to approve the deal on March 11. The new entity, Warner Bros. Discovery Inc (WBD), is home to various streaming services (HBO Max, discovery+, CNN+) along with linear and premium TV channels (Discovery Channel, HBO, TNT, HGTV, CNN, Animal Planet, Adult Swim, Cartoon Network). Warner Bros. Discovery began trading on the NASDAQ stock exchange … Read more

Dividend Increases/Decreases for the Week March 25

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Below we provide a list of firms that raised their dividends during the week ending March 25. The dividend reports of covered firms on this list will be updated shortly with the new information. To access our dividend reports use the ‘Symbol’ search box in our website header. Firms Raising Their Dividends This Week      1847 Holdings, LLC (EFSH): now $0.05 per share quarterly dividend. Armanino Foods of Distinction (AMNF): now $0.03 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.0275. Banco de Chile (BCH): now $0.855 per share annual dividend, was $0.513. BankUnited (BKU): now $0.25 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.23. BRP (DOOO): now CAD 0.16 per share quarterly dividend, was CAD 0.13. Chesswood Group (CHWWF): now CAD 0.04 per share monthly … Read more

AT&T’s WarnerMedia Unit and Discovery Are Close to Finalizing Their Blockbuster Merger

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Image Shown: Announced back in May 2021, the blockbuster merger of AT&T Inc’s WarnerMedia unit with Discovery Inc is expected to close in the second quarter of 2022. Image Source: AT&T Inc & Discovery Inc – May 2021 IR Presentation By Callum Turcan The blockbuster merger of WarnerMedia, currently a part of AT&T Inc (T), with Discovery Inc (DISCA) (DISCB) (DISCK) is getting closer to completion. On March 11, Discovery shareholders voted on whether to proceed with the transaction. AT&T does not need to secure shareholder approval through a vote to close the transaction. If everything goes as planned, WarnerMedia and Discovery are set to close their merger during the second quarter of 2022. Let’s dig more into the details … Read more

Update: Analyzing Valuentum’s Economic Castle Index: A Walk Forward Case Study

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This article was originally published February 20, 2020. By Callum Turcan and Brian Nelson, CFA In , the Valuentum team published a paper called The Castle Trumps the Moat which sought to change the conversation around Warren Buffett’s very popular phrase “economic moat” towards one with a more quantitative grounding. The idea behind an economic moat is that companies with such a qualitative attribute should generate stronger returns than those that don’t, at least so the thinking goes, given the ability for these firms to generate competitive advantages for themselves in their respective fields (allowing for these firms to charge relatively higher prices and/or incur lower expenses, resulting in larger profit streams than “non-moaty” companies). There are two things generally … Read more

Best Idea Disney Rebounding Nicely; Shares Look Cheap

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Image Shown: Shares of The Walt Disney Company strengthened February 9 in the wake of the media and entertainment giant’s latest earnings report. We include shares of DIS as an idea in the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio. By Callum Turcan On February 9, The Walt Disney Company (DIS) reported first-quarter fiscal 2022 earnings (period ended January 1, 2022) that smashed past both consensus top- and bottom-line estimates. A sharp rebound at its ‘Disney Parks, Experiences and Products’ unit impressed investors and shares of DIS are strengthening nicely in the wake of its latest earnings report. We are big fans of Disney and include shares of DIS as an idea in the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio. Our fair value estimate stands … Read more

Weekly: Why We Missed Big on T and FB; Overpriced Staples, Our Call To Action; and More!

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In this Valuentum Weekly, in video form, President of Investment Research Brian Nelson, CFA, explains why Valuentum missed big on T and FB, how volatility on names with huge market caps is spiking recklessly, and why the call to action in the book Value Trap remains as relevant as ever given current incentives. ———- Valuentum members have access to our 16-page stock reports, Valuentum Buying Index ratings, Dividend Cushion ratios, fair value estimates and ranges, dividend reports and more. Not a member? Subscribe today. The first 14 days are free.    Brian Nelson owns shares in SPY, SCHG, QQQ, DIA, VOT, BITO, and IWM. Valuentum owns SPY, SCHG, QQQ, VOO, and DIA. Brian Nelson’s household owns shares in HON, DIS, HAS, NKE. … Read more

Don’t Throw the Baby Out with the Bathwater

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Image: Erica Nicol Takeaways: Junk tech should continue to collapse, but the stylistic area of large cap growth and big cap tech should remain resilient. Moderately elevated levels of inflation coupled with interest rates hovering at all-time lows isn’t a terrible combination. In fact, it’s not bad at all. The markets are digesting the huge gains of the past few years so far in 2022, and the excesses in ARKK funds, crypto, SPACs, and meme stocks are being rid from the system. Our best ideas are “outperforming” the very benchmarks that are outperforming everyone else. The BIN portfolio is down 6.4% and the DGN portfolio is down 3.2% year to date. The SPY is down 7.8%, while the average investor … Read more