STMP

ALERT: Adding Market Crash ‘Protection,’ Removing MSFT, BKNG

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Image source: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.  ALERT: Adding Market Crash ‘Protection,’ Removing MSFT, BKNG — Changes to newsletter portfolios — We’re adding out-of-the-money put options to both the Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio and Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio. — We’re removing Microsoft from the Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio. — We’re removing Booking Holdings from the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio. — By Brian Nelson, CFA — We’re making some moves in the newsletter portfolios today.  — The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DIA) is currently indicated down 900+ points in pre-market trading during the session Monday, February 24. We laid out a thesis where the US markets could experience a “crash,” and we encourage you to read that take here, “Is a … Read more

Is a Stock Market Crash Coming? — Coronavirus Update and P/E Ratios

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Image Source: World Health Organization, Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), Situation Report — 32 We don’t think this is the environment to put new capital to work, and we remain highly cautious of what COVID-19 means for global economic growth not just in the first quarter of 2020 but for the rest of this year (maybe longer). Right now, the US markets are not really factoring in anything related to COVID-19, and perhaps may be adjusting to China’s stimulus in artificially propping up the markets as if the outbreak is somehow a “positive thing.” With the S&P 500 trading at 19.0 forward earnings estimates–estimates that are likely too high given the evidence we are seeing with respect to a slowdown due … Read more

Amazon Posts Blowout Earnings, Shares Back Near 2018 Highs

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Image Shown: After reporting fourth quarter earnings for 2019, shares of Amazon Inc have returned to their 2018 highs as of this writing. By Callum Turcan On January 30, Amazon Inc (AMZN) reported fourth-quarter earnings for 2019 that handily beat consensus expectations. Shares of AMZN are now trading back near their highs first reached in 2018. We like Amazon’s growth trajectory but don’t include Amazon in our newsletter portfolios due to the enormous uncertainty in the company’s key valuation drivers, which has a magnified impact on changes in its fair value estimate. That’s a product of its high operating leverage. Even a ~50 basis point difference in its expected gross margins versus its realized gross margins, for example, could have … Read more

Resetting Your Mental Model

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Image Source: affen ajlfe A version of this article was originally published on our website October 6, 2013. Having the right mental model and using the right information can be the reason why you win or lose in investing. “What is the definition of timeliness? Many believe it is getting information to investors as quickly as possible after an event, or updating something every single day or week for immaterial information. I believe in a different definition of timeliness. I believe timeliness is using all information available in a mosaic approach to accurately predict the event before it even happens. Take Kinder Morgan as the latest example. We were the only ones predicting what was going to happen before it did. To investors, … Read more

Our Reports on Stocks in the Internet Content and Catalog Retail Industry

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Image Source: Robert Scoble Structure of the Internet & Catalog Retail Industry The Internet and catalog retail industry benefits as a whole from the secular trend toward consumer digital (online) consumption. The industry consists of a number of exclusive online retailers led by Amazon and businesses that offer Internet travel services such as Booking Holdings, formerly Priceline. Online auctions are dominated by eBay, and the firm benefits from both a buyer-seller driven network effect and secular online consumption growth. The industry generates high returns on investment due to minimal capital costs, but the landscape will be vastly different in the decades ahead. Still, we like the group. We’ve optimized our tehnology coverage. To access the reports, please select here.

Amazon Contends with Rising Operating Expenses and Shrinking Gross Margins

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Image Shown: Shares of Amazon Inc have stumbled so far in 2019 as the headwinds from rising tariffs, largely a product of the US-China trade war, combined with a competitive cloud computing landscape put downward pressure on its profitability levels. By Callum Turcan Amazon (AMZN) reported third quarter 2019 earnings after the market close on Thursday October 24 that underwhelmed investor expectations and saw shares plummet after-hours. However, shares of AMZN recovered somewhat throughout the trading session on Friday October 25. While GAAP revenues climbed 24% year-over-year to $70.0 billion in the third quarter, GAAP operating income declined 15% year-over-year to $3.2 billion due in part to rising operating expenses (growth in marketing, technology and content, and G&A expenses outpaced … Read more

Disney’s Mixed Report, Stamps Implodes, and Astronics for the Radar, More Reports

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Disney’s Mixed Report, Stamps Implodes, and Astronics for the Radar, More Reports — In alphabetical order by ticker symbol: ATRO, DIS, ETSY, GDOT, NYT, PBPB, ROKU, STMP, SVMK, TPR, TVTY — Astronics (ATRO): We are strongly considering one of our favorite small-cap aerospace suppliers after a solid showing during its first quarter, results released May 8. If you may recall, Astronics was a winner in the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio in the past, and even with Boeing on the skids given 737 MAX crashes, we’re not shying away from considering aerospace supply-chain exposure, given the massive backlogs at the airframe makers. Astronics’ sales advanced more than 16% in the quarter, and it registered its fifth consecutive quarter of record aerospace revenue. … Read more

Kraft-Heinz Blows Up, More Updates!

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Image shown: The rating history of Kraft-Heinz (KHC). Valuentum members were warned in advance of this pricey equity in 2016/2017, and the VBI rating never advanced past 5 since then after registering a 1, the worst rating, on two separate occasions. Dear members, I wanted to first of all welcome our new members. There have been a lot of new ones during the past few weeks. Thank you. The buzz might be coming from the new book launch, Value Trap. If you haven’t read the book yet, please do so here. Members can get the pdf digital download today at 25% off. For new members, reading this book is simply par for the course to get a feel for how we look at … Read more

In the News: Potential US-EU Tariffs, Kraft Heinz, and Stamps.com

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Let’s take a look at some of the top stories surrounding the markets, including the potential for escalating US-EU trade tensions, Kraft-Heinz’s not so shocking dividend cut, and Stamps.com’s free fall. By Kris Rosemann While equities continue to display optimism over US-China trade talks, concerns surrounding potential tariffs on autos from the European Union are mounting. Retaliatory measures on ~$22.7 billion of US products from the EU are reportedly already being prepared, and companies such as Caterpillar (CAT) and Xerox (XRX) are among those expected to be targeted by the retaliation. Europe is currently facing potentially slowing economic growth, and weakness in industrial production in the region has not gone unnoticed, “In The News: European Growth Concerns…” Shares of Kraft … Read more

Valuentum Stock Screeners

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This article was sent to members via email December 29. That email can be accessed at the link that follows this article. By Brian Nelson, CFA Hi everyone, I wanted to provide an update with respect to Valuentum’s stock screeners. We believe our stock screeners are among the most robust when it comes to providing forward-looking data, or data that is important with respect to the investment decision-making process. We publish screens in each of the monthly newsletters, but we also provide a basic weekly screener for download on the left column of the website, “Download Weekly Stock Screener (xls) — login required.”   We also have other products. The more robust DataScreener, for example, is part of the quarterly Financial … Read more