SPG

ALERT: Adding Market Crash ‘Protection,’ Removing MSFT, BKNG

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Image source: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.  ALERT: Adding Market Crash ‘Protection,’ Removing MSFT, BKNG — Changes to newsletter portfolios — We’re adding out-of-the-money put options to both the Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio and Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio. — We’re removing Microsoft from the Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio. — We’re removing Booking Holdings from the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio. — By Brian Nelson, CFA — We’re making some moves in the newsletter portfolios today.  — The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DIA) is currently indicated down 900+ points in pre-market trading during the session Monday, February 24. We laid out a thesis where the US markets could experience a “crash,” and we encourage you to read that take here, “Is a … Read more

Is a Stock Market Crash Coming? — Coronavirus Update and P/E Ratios

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Image Source: World Health Organization, Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), Situation Report — 32 We don’t think this is the environment to put new capital to work, and we remain highly cautious of what COVID-19 means for global economic growth not just in the first quarter of 2020 but for the rest of this year (maybe longer). Right now, the US markets are not really factoring in anything related to COVID-19, and perhaps may be adjusting to China’s stimulus in artificially propping up the markets as if the outbreak is somehow a “positive thing.” With the S&P 500 trading at 19.0 forward earnings estimates–estimates that are likely too high given the evidence we are seeing with respect to a slowdown due … Read more

Realty Income Closes Out 2019 With a Solid Earnings Report and Promising Guidance

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Image Shown: Shares of Realty Income Corporation, a holding in our Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio, have taken off year-to-date. By Callum Turcan On February 19, the commercial property focused real estate investment trust (‘REIT’) Realty Income Corporation (O) reported fourth quarter and full-year earnings for 2019. Its results beat market expectations for both its GAAP revenues and non-GAAP funds from operations (‘FFO’), which saw shares continue to march higher after performing quite well year-to-date. We include shares of O in our Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio and continue to like the name. Please note that when we update our Retail REIT Industry models, it’s likely Realty Income will receive a nice boost to its fair value estimate and fair value estimate range. … Read more

Digital Realty Starts 2020 Off Right

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Image Source: Digital Realty Trust Inc – Fourth Quarter and Full-Year 2019 IR Earnings Presentation By Callum Turcan On February 13, the data center real estate investment trust (‘REIT’) Digital Realty Trust Inc (DLR) reported fourth quarter and full-year earnings for 2019 after the market close. The firm’s top-line marginally missed consensus estimates as its funds from operations (‘FFO’) per share modestly beat consensus estimates. Shares of DLR marched up 4% on February 14 as investors priced in the FFO per share beat and recent events. We continue to like shares of DLR as a holding in our Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio. As of this writing, Digital Realty yields ~3.3%. Earnings Overview and a Tough 2019 The REIT’s FFO per … Read more

Resetting Your Mental Model

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Image Source: affen ajlfe A version of this article was originally published on our website October 6, 2013. Having the right mental model and using the right information can be the reason why you win or lose in investing. “What is the definition of timeliness? Many believe it is getting information to investors as quickly as possible after an event, or updating something every single day or week for immaterial information. I believe in a different definition of timeliness. I believe timeliness is using all information available in a mosaic approach to accurately predict the event before it even happens. Take Kinder Morgan as the latest example. We were the only ones predicting what was going to happen before it did. To investors, … Read more

Valuentum Exclusive Success Rates Trump Even the Best Quant Hedge Funds

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Image: President of Investment Research Brian Nelson, CFA By Brian Nelson, CFA A new book, “The Man Who Solved the Market,” hit bookshelves last year, and thus far it has been a hit. The text goes into the story of quant hedge fund Renaissance Technologies and its hedge fund, the Medallion Fund, which has put up mammoth returns since inception. Though the book focuses more on the life and times of founder Jim Simons and dedicated only a page or two to the fall of Long-Term Capital Management (LTCM), another quant fund that went belly-up during the late 1990s, it was nonetheless a thoroughly interesting and enjoyable read. But why I am bringing up one of the most successful quant … Read more

Portfolio Newsletter Holding Digital Realty Targets Secular Growth Trends to Support Dividend Growth Trajectory

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Image Shown: Digital Realty Trust is one of our favorite ways to indirectly play several secular growth trends at once. The data center real estate investment trust (‘REIT’) pays out a nice dividend that’s supported by its investment grade credit ratings, a solid cash flow profile, and a promising growth trajectory. By Callum Turcan Happy Holidays! Callum here. I hope you are all enjoying some quality time off with your loved ones. This year, my family is happy to announce that we will be celebrating this Thanksgiving with my sister’s newborn daughter, her first major holiday. These are exciting times, and as always, feel free to check out our Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio (link here) and Dividend Growth Newsletter (link … Read more

Dividend Growth Newsletter Portfolio Holding Realty Income Keeps Chugging Along

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Image Shown: Shares of Realty Income Corporation have performed quite well over the past year, keeping recent headwinds in mind. By Callum Turcan Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio holding Realty Income Corp (O) posted a modest increase in its adjusted funds from operations (‘AFFO’) on a per share during its third quarter 2019 earnings report published November 4. Billing itself as “The Monthly Dividend Company” with a ~3.5% yield as of this writing, this REIT has paid out over 590 consecutive monthly dividends during its 50-year long operating history and has increased its per-share payout over 100 times since going public in 1994. We caution that shares of O will continue to experience volatility as expectations of future interest rates are … Read more

ICYMI: Interview with Valuentum’s President Brian M. Nelson, CFA

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Catch up with Valuentum’s President Brian M. Nelson, CFA in a recent interview with dividend growth investor Arne Magnus Lorentzen Ulland of the blog stockles. By Brian Nelson, CFA Recently, I was interviewed by Arne Magnus Lorentzen Ulland of the blog stockles. Arne is a dividend growth investor like many of you, and I sincerely hope you enjoy the interview he put together. I’m very grateful for his interest. His questions were fantastic. We discuss why and how I incorporate independence and integrity into the service at Valuentum. We go into detail regarding why Valuentum views stocks the way it does, and how Valuentum combines enterprise valuation and the information contained in prices in its stock-selection process. I discuss the pitfalls … Read more

Economic Commentary: US-Listed Chinese Names, 60-40 Stock-Bond Allocation and More

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There’s an interesting saying that I came across recently…that hits at the most important component of any fiduciary approach: capital preservation. The saying was “Friends don’t let friends buy and hold.” We’ve always employed the Valuentum strategy, which we believe is much more promising than a traditional buy and hold strategy. – Brian Nelson, CFA The US-China trade war continues with reports indicating that the White House is considering delisting Chinese (FXI, MCHI, KWEB) companies on US exchanges. Let’s get more of the Valuentum’s team’s thoughts on these developments as well as other topics that have come to the fore. The latest alert to members is a great prompt to get the conversation started. The Valuentum Team: If we had … Read more