PM

Nelson: I Have Been Wrong About the Prospect of Near-Term Inflationary-Driven Earnings Tailwinds

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Transcript During the past several weeks, we’ve grown increasingly concerned about the health of consumer-tied entities across not only the consumer staples but also the consumer discretionary spaces. Many consumer staples entities, while raising prices, aren’t raising them fast enough to drive operating-income and bottom-line expansion, while many consumer-discretionary companies are facing higher freight and logistics costs and weaker performance in China, perhaps best revealed by Nike’s most recently-reported quarter, where inventory advanced 23% compared to the prior-year period. The tell-tale sign about the health of the consumer may be Amazon (AMZN) Prime Day, which is coming up on July 12-13, but based on many of the reports we’ve monitored this past earnings season, even if sales are strong on … Read more

Consumer Staples Struggling with Higher Inflationary Costs, Group Hits 52-Week Lows

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Image: The Vanguard Consumer Staples ETF (VDC) has notched a new 52-week low, and investors should note that we don’t think consumer staples entities are immune to an environment of higher inflation, where their price increases may not be fully absorbed by the consumer. Due to the commoditization of many of the goods produced in the consumer staples space, we think the consumer may instead trade down to off-brands or white label (“store brand”) products than pay up for branded merchandise. By Brian Nelson, CFA On June 10, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released its Consumer Price Index Summary for May showing inflation continues at an elevated pace, “with the indexes for shelter, gasoline, and food being the largest … Read more

High-Yielding Philip Morris Adeptly Navigating Exogenous Shocks

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Image Shown: In the face of major exogenous shocks, Philip Morris International Inc was still able to put up solid operational and financial performance in the first quarter of 2022. Image Source: Philip Morris International Inc – First Quarter of 2022 IR Earnings Presentation By Callum Turcan There are a lot of reasons to like Philip Morris International Inc (PM) as a high-yielding income growth opportunity. Its portfolio includes numerous top selling cigarette brands including Marlboro, L&M, Chesterfield, Parliament, and others. After splitting with Altria Group Inc (MO) back in 2008, Philip Morris has the right to sell these cigarette brands in international markets while Altria Group has the right to sell these branded tobacco products in the US market. … Read more

The Castle Trumps the Moat

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Please select the image below to download the report. Backtested results are hypothetical and do not represent actual trading. Actual results may differ from backtested information being presented. Tickerized for firms held in the Morningstar (MORN) Wide Moat ETF (MOAT) at the time of this writing.

Weekly: Why We Missed Big on T and FB; Overpriced Staples, Our Call To Action; and More!

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In this Valuentum Weekly, in video form, President of Investment Research Brian Nelson, CFA, explains why Valuentum missed big on T and FB, how volatility on names with huge market caps is spiking recklessly, and why the call to action in the book Value Trap remains as relevant as ever given current incentives. ———- Valuentum members have access to our 16-page stock reports, Valuentum Buying Index ratings, Dividend Cushion ratios, fair value estimates and ranges, dividend reports and more. Not a member? Subscribe today. The first 14 days are free.    Brian Nelson owns shares in SPY, SCHG, QQQ, DIA, VOT, BITO, and IWM. Valuentum owns SPY, SCHG, QQQ, VOO, and DIA. Brian Nelson’s household owns shares in HON, DIS, HAS, NKE. … Read more

Undervalued PINS, SNAP Rallying; FB Incredibly Mispriced, and Refreshed Consumer Discretionary Reports

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Image: Valuentum’s Periodic Screener, February 4.  — By Valuentum Analysts — Two of the most undervalued stocks in our coverage Pinterest, Inc. (PINS) and Snap Inc. (SNAP) are indicated to rally hard February 4 after issuing positive earnings reports, providing further evidence of the importance of the discounted cash flow process and the magnet that intrinsic value estimates are to stock prices. Pinterest is indicated up ~14%, while Snap is indicated up ~47% based on the latest information we have. — The refreshed Valuentum periodic data screener is now available for download on our website (it can be found in the ‘Stock Screens’ section in the left column of our website). The periodic data screener, which also includes updated fair value estimates on … Read more

Don’t Throw the Baby Out with the Bathwater

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Image: Erica Nicol Takeaways: Junk tech should continue to collapse, but the stylistic area of large cap growth and big cap tech should remain resilient. Moderately elevated levels of inflation coupled with interest rates hovering at all-time lows isn’t a terrible combination. In fact, it’s not bad at all. The markets are digesting the huge gains of the past few years so far in 2022, and the excesses in ARKK funds, crypto, SPACs, and meme stocks are being rid from the system. Our best ideas are “outperforming” the very benchmarks that are outperforming everyone else. The BIN portfolio is down 6.4% and the DGN portfolio is down 3.2% year to date. The SPY is down 7.8%, while the average investor … Read more

Hard Work and the Trust That Binds

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Image Source: Terry Johnson By Brian Nelson, CFA We’ll have our traditional Valuentum Weekly email coming out on Sunday, and I’m excited to say our team is putting the finishing touches on our technology industry update, so we’ll have a whole bunch of fresh reports for you to look at Sunday evening/Monday morning. It’s easy to forget how much we’ve been through the past two years. Often, we forget how helpful the warning that markets were going to crash was the weekend before they did on February 22, 2020, “Is a Stock Market Crash Coming? – Coronavirus Update and P/E Ratios,” how we thought dollar-cost-averaging made sense at the bottom in March 2020, and how we went “all-in” in April … Read more

ALERT: High Yield Dividend Newsletter Portfolio Changes

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Image: Mike Cohen Summary of Changes AT&T (T) – remove Global X SuperIncome Preferred ETF (SPFF) – to 5% from 10% Vanguard Real Estate ETF (VNQ) – to 5% from 10% Chevron Corporation (CVX) – initiate at 5% ExxonMobil Corporation (XOM) – initiate at 5% Magellan Midstream Partners, L.P. (MMP) – to 5% from 2.5% Enterprise Products Partners L.P. (EPD) – to 5% from 2.5% By Brian Nelson, CFA We released the Valuentum Weekly last night, which can be accessed here , but we saved our note regarding the High Yield Dividend Newsletter portfolio changes as well as portfolio updates to today, November 8. A few weeks ago, we mentioned that we had a change of heart with AT&T (T). … Read more

Philip Morris International Boosts Dividend, Cost Structure Improving

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Image Shown: An overview of Philip Morris International Inc’s guidance for 2021. Image Source: Philip Morris International Inc – Third Quarter of 2021 IR Earnings Presentation By Callum Turcan On October 19, Philip Morris International Inc (PM) reported third quarter 2021 earnings that beat both consensus top- and bottom-line estimates. The firm narrowed its reported diluted EPS estimate for 2021 in conjunction with the report, which saw the midpoint of its guidance move marginally lower. However, Philip Morris International’s non-GAAP currency-neutral adjusted diluted EPS forecast for 2021 now calls for 13%-14% growth over 2020 levels, which is an improvement from its previous guidance calling for 12%-14% growth. In the graphic at the top of this article, Philip Morris International provides … Read more