OIL

Bioverativ’s Takeout, Visa’s Surge, and General Electric’s Pain

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From Bioverativ’s takeout to Visa’s stock price surge to General Electric’s continued pain, there’s a lot going on in the stock market. Let’s cover some ground. By Kris Rosemann and Brian Nelson, CFA It’s hard to believe this but our best idea in the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio, Visa (V), is now a $124+ per share stock. We know how to pick ‘em, would you say? We don’t get everything correct, of course, but if you’ve read anything on our website, we can only hope that you’ve witnessed Visa’s meteoric rise. The high end of our updated fair value estimate range for Visa is north of $130 per share. What a wild ride it has been, to say the least, … Read more

Hanesbrands Leaps, IBM Falters and More

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We were pleased to see the recent performance of Hanesbrands, and we continue to think IBM is not yet out of the woods, despite some life with respect to revenue trends. Let’s cover this and more. By Kris Rosemann There are a lot of things happening in the markets these days. For starters, growth in the world’s second-largest economy accelerated for the first time in seven years as China’s reported growth of 6.9% in 2017 was slightly higher than the 6.7% it achieved in 2016 and the projected growth rate for 2017 of ~6.5%. However, many observers are anticipating a return to the slowing trends of years past as the Chinese government works to reduce risky lending in areas such … Read more

2018 Starts Out with a Bang!

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Image Shown: An ETF that measures momentum (MTUM) has done considerably better than the S&P 500 since the beginning of 2017. Among its top 5 holdings are Microsoft (MSFT), Apple (AAPL), Boeing (BA)—newsletter holdings that have had excellent value characteristics along the way. Visa (V) is also included in its top 10 holdings.

Even some the most bullish and optimistic investors have been surprised by the resiliency of today’s market environment. Why does it seem appropriate to remind members that the stock market doesn’t always go straight up with almost no volatility?

Video: Quants! You’re NOT Measuring VALUE and Nelson’s Theory of Universal Value

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President of Investment Research Brian Nelson defines the concept of universal value and shows how quantitative statistical methods are inextricably linked to those of fundamental, financial, business-model related analysis. Value does not exist in respective process vacuums! Value is universal. Find out why. Running time: ~10 minutes.  Tickerized for Valuentum’s stock and ETF coverage universe. Transcript Hi this is Brian Nelson from Valuentum Securities, and this is the tenth edition of a series that I call “Off the Cuff,” where I get in front of the camera and I talk for ten minutes. This is what we have to talk about today. We have to talk about this concept: The Theory of Universal Value. Value does not exist in vacuums … Read more

Video: Nelson’s Active Management Theorem, Poker and “High Society,” Inertia and the Value-Growth Conundrum

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President of Investment Research Brian Nelson details his simple new theorem of the stock market that may change everything you believe. Nelson explains using poker as an example, and he goes on to caution about the concept of inertia, and how investing has somehow transformed into a “game” — if investors truly believe there are ‘value’ and ‘growth’ stocks. A must-watch intrigue. Running time: ~11 minutes.

Nobel Prize-Winning Economist Robert Shiller On Indexing

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Robert Shiller on what worries him about passive investing from CNBC. “The problem is that if you are talking about passive indexing, that is something that is really free-riding on other people’s work. So people say, ‘I’m not going to try to beat the market. The market is all-knowing.’ But how in the world can the market be all-knowing, if nobody is trying — well, not as many people — are trying to beat it? … The strength of this country was built on people who watched individual companies. They had opinions about them. All this talk of indexes, it’s a little bit diluting of our intellect. It becomes more of a game. It’s a chaotic system. It’s kind of … Read more

Charting Cash Flow and Net Debt — The Oil Majors

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Traditional free cash flow generation has been strong for the oil majors through the first nine months of the year, but their balance sheets remain bloated with net debt. A few haven’t covered their cash dividends with free cash flow generation through the first nine months of 2017. Oil & Gas – Major: BP, COP, CVX, PTR, RDS, TOT, XOM

Will Texas Tea Hit $75 Per Barrel By Year’s End?

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Image Shown: The performance of the VanEck Vectors Oil Refiners ETF (CRAK) since its launch in August 2015. We’ve witnessed our fair share of fits and starts from energy resource pricing during the past few years, but could the global crude markets finally be rebalancing? Let’s talk about our thoughts on whether the outlook for energy resource pricing is improving in a sustainable way. By Kris Rosemann and Brian Nelson, CFA It may have taken longer than we initially anticipated, but crude oil prices (USO) appear to be on the verge of making a sustained recovery, though we always caution that sentiment can change on a dime, especially in the speculation-heavy commodity price markets. If you recall, we thought the … Read more